Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft The OIL

Composition of U. S. Energy Use Percent of total energy use 100 75 coal

Work Done in the U. S. Economy, 1850 -1970 Labor Domesticated Animals Fuel

The Epoch of Fossil Fuel Exploitation (after Hubbert, 1969) Trillion kwh per year 300

Results- Various Countries Algeria (EUR=26. 09 BBO) Mexico (EUR=65. 0 BBO) Norway (EUR=35. 2

Various National Patterns USA – E. g. . of a net consumer Venezuela –

Various National Patterns Mexico– E. g. . of a country that switches over from

Forecasting Oil Production U = ~ 3000 (mean estimate of the USGS 2000). Peak

Two Views • Julian Simon view: technological developments and human ingenuity will yield more

Gas Hog Tax Credit Hummer H 1 Sticker price $106, 185 Current law Equipment

Cars per Thousand People Source: Just. Auto. com Thomas Gross, US DOE “Today there

American success Great natural resources Energy subsidies: slaves then fossil fuels Global trade

Other Extinct cultures Rapa Nui- (Easter Island) Mangaia Mangereva Pitcairn Henderson Exception: Tikopia

Slides: 46

Download presentation

Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft

The “OIL PEAK”

Source: Smil (1991)

Composition of U. S. Energy Use Percent of total energy use 100 75 coal wood oil 50 gas 25 animal feed electricity 0 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Energy Rate of Return

Work Done in the U. S. Economy, 1850 -1970 Labor Domesticated Animals Fuel

The Epoch of Fossil Fuel Exploitation (after Hubbert, 1969) Trillion kwh per year 300 200 100 -5 Stonehenge Built -4 -3 -1 -2 0 Mayan culture Steam Parthenon Engine completed Pyramids Iron in constructed Black Middle Death East Inquisition Magellan's Circumnavigation +1 +2 +3 +4 +5

Hubbert Oil Cycle

US Oil Extraction

World Oil Extraction

Results- Various Countries Algeria (EUR=26. 09 BBO) Mexico (EUR=65. 0 BBO) Norway (EUR=35. 2 BBO) Romania (EUR=7. 3 BBO)

World Oil Extraction

Various National Patterns USA – E. g. . of a net consumer Venezuela – E. g. of a net producer High reserves (~ 3000 BBO) and low economic growth scenario

Various National Patterns Mexico– E. g. . of a country that switches over from net producer to net consumer in the future. U. A. E. – E. g. of a swing producer. High reserves (~ 3000 BBO) and low economic growth scenario

Forecasting Oil Production U = ~ 3000 (mean estimate of the USGS 2000). Peak Production = 2037 Source : US DOE (EIA), website.

World Oil Extraction

World Oil Consumption

World Oil Flows

Two Views • Julian Simon view: technological developments and human ingenuity will yield more resources –“Drowning in oil” The Economist, March 6 th 12 th 1999, pp. 23 -25 • Colin Campbell, et al. use Hubbert curves to predict the end of oil S. Gürcan Gülen, Ph. D. –“The End of Cheap Oil” Scientific American, March 1998, pp. 78 -83 (Campbell and Laherrere)

Real Price of Oil since 1869

Oil Reserve/Production ratio

Oil Reserves

“Proven” oil reserves

Natural Gas Reserves

Coal Reserves

Gas Hog Tax Credit Hummer H 1 Sticker price $106, 185 Current law Equipment deduction $25, 000 Total tax deduction* $60, 722 Bush economic plan Equipment deduction $75, 000 Total tax deduction* $88, 722 * Includes bonus tax write-off enacted by Congress in March 2002 and a deduction for normal depreciation. Sources: Detroit News research, IRS, Taxpayers for Common Sense

Cars per Thousand People Source: Just. Auto. com Thomas Gross, US DOE “Today there are 670 million vehicles in the world. By 2050 that number is expected to increase to 4. 5 billion or maybe more. ”