Solar Meets the Peak Oil Challenge ASES Forum

  • Slides: 43
Download presentation
Solar Meets the Peak Oil Challenge ASES Forum Peak Oil, Climate Recovery, and Renewable

Solar Meets the Peak Oil Challenge ASES Forum Peak Oil, Climate Recovery, and Renewable Energy Thursday 10: 30 am to 12: 00 pm Ron Swenson ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Swenson’s Law ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Swenson’s Law ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Roscoe Bartlett “It might seem possible to “fill the gap” in the short term.

Roscoe Bartlett “It might seem possible to “fill the gap” in the short term. However, in the long term, this will be impossible. For one thing, it will hasten the exhaustion of other finite resources. That will make the inevitable transition to renewable sources more difficult and more painful. ” ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Energy Scoreboard Primary challenges are: • EROEI • Global Warming • Scalability • Timing

Energy Scoreboard Primary challenges are: • EROEI • Global Warming • Scalability • Timing ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Why leave out Economics? • Economics is an instrument of policy. • It’s the

Why leave out Economics? • Economics is an instrument of policy. • It’s the last step in the process: –First figure out what works… –Then create incentives. ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

EROEI • Energy Returned On Energy Invested • ERo. EI(field) >> ERo. EI(solid, liquid,

EROEI • Energy Returned On Energy Invested • ERo. EI(field) >> ERo. EI(solid, liquid, gas) ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

EROEI for PV • EPBT: 5 years • Life: 50 years • Plus it

EROEI for PV • EPBT: 5 years • Life: 50 years • Plus it can be bootstrapped EROEI = 10 30 ~ electric ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

EROEI for Thin Film PV • EPBT: 6 months • Life: 20 years EROEI

EROEI for Thin Film PV • EPBT: 6 months • Life: 20 years EROEI = 40 120 ~electric ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

EROEI for Wind • EPBT: 3 months • Life: 20 years EROEI = 80

EROEI for Wind • EPBT: 3 months • Life: 20 years EROEI = 80 240 ~ electric ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Global Warming • Thanks to Al Gore, I can keep this short! ASES July

Global Warming • Thanks to Al Gore, I can keep this short! ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Atmospheric CO 2 ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Atmospheric CO 2 ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Larsen B Ice Shelf Collapse • Feb-Mar 2002 • In about 35 days •

Larsen B Ice Shelf Collapse • Feb-Mar 2002 • In about 35 days • Larger than Rhode Island • Totally baffled scientists • 1 down, 4 to go ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

EROEI for Tar Sands Plus… • Ravaged land • Water contamination • Extraction uses

EROEI for Tar Sands Plus… • Ravaged land • Water contamination • Extraction uses natural gas • Low EROEI → EROEI = 3? ASES July 2006 Greenhouse gases www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

EROEI for Nuclear Plus … • Terrorism • Waste guarded for 10, 000+ years

EROEI for Nuclear Plus … • Terrorism • Waste guarded for 10, 000+ years • Depletion → low grade ores → … How do we value a 1, 000+ year Greenhouse wasteland? gases EROEI = 4 12 ~ electric ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

EROEI for Hydrogen EROEI = -½ ASES July 2006 Am I missing something? !

EROEI for Hydrogen EROEI = -½ ASES July 2006 Am I missing something? ! www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Scalability Solar Energy Input (Tera. Watts) 178, 00 0 Reflected to Space Immediately Absorbed

Scalability Solar Energy Input (Tera. Watts) 178, 00 0 Reflected to Space Immediately Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat Used to Evaporate Water (Weather) Captured by Plant Photosynthesis Total Energy Used by Human Society 53, 000 82, 000 40, 000 13 Total Energy Used by US Society 2. 5 Total Human Food Energy 0. 6 ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Renewable Energy Solar Wind 1. 2 x 105 TW at Earth surface 600 TW

Renewable Energy Solar Wind 1. 2 x 105 TW at Earth surface 600 TW practical 2 -4 TW extractable Tide/Ocean Currents 2 TW gross Geothermal 12 TW gross over land small fraction recoverable ASES July 2006 Biomass 5 -7 TW gross all cultivatable land not used for food Hydroelectric 4. 6 TW gross 1. 6 TW technically feasible 0. 9 TW economically feasible 0. 6 TW installed capacity www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

There is no Silver Bullet. Why Silver in the first place? • The Lone

There is no Silver Bullet. Why Silver in the first place? • The Lone Range chose silver to emphasize that silver, like life, was precious and should not be wasted. • Specific gravity of Pb = 11. 35 • Specific gravity of Ag Ag = 10. 50 Ag ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

There is no Ag Bullet. • Now I think I follow what you mean.

There is no Ag Bullet. • Now I think I follow what you mean. Let’s find out why…. ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Corn Ethanol ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Corn Ethanol ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Corn Ethanol • Energy content 75% from fossil fuels: – Coal (electricity) > 40%

Corn Ethanol • Energy content 75% from fossil fuels: – Coal (electricity) > 40% – Natural gas (to heat mash) > 30% – Not to mention fertilizer, tractor & truck fuel • • Photosynthesis 5 - 26% Depletes soil and water supplies Competes with food resources Not carbon-neutral ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Sugar Cane Ethanol (Brazil) • • • Meets 40% of demand Brazil per capita

Sugar Cane Ethanol (Brazil) • • • Meets 40% of demand Brazil per capita use is 10% of US 40% x 10% = 4% Many sugar cane workers are slaves Produces aldehydes in exhaust� Soil and water conditions very different ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Cellulosic Ethanol … Photosynthesis: Sunlight ~ 0. 25% Photosynthesis: PV (or STE) ~ 0.

Cellulosic Ethanol … Photosynthesis: Sunlight ~ 0. 25% Photosynthesis: PV (or STE) ~ 0. 5% - 2% USA: PV on all paved land ~ 11 Gb/yr 0. 1 m km 2 (150%) USA: Cellulose from all forests ~ 6 Gb/yr 3 m km 2 (80%) USA: Cellulose from all ag land ~ 3 Gb/yr 1. 5 m km 2 (40%) ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Cellulosic Ethanol Land to achieve 30 Gb/yr 15 m km 2 Global forests 40

Cellulosic Ethanol Land to achieve 30 Gb/yr 15 m km 2 Global forests 40 m km 2 “All we need to do is change the make-up of ~25% of present wooded land space. ” ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Forest Facts • Forests cover just under 4 billion hectares, 40 million km 2

Forest Facts • Forests cover just under 4 billion hectares, 40 million km 2 or 30% of the total land area • Global deforestation – 13 million hectares • Net loss of forests – 7. 3 million hectares • 36% of the forest area has had little or no human impact • Area of forest plantations 140 million hectares and increasing by 2. 8 million hectares/year ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Without Cellulosic Ethanol ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Without Cellulosic Ethanol ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … . .

If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … . . . not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8 th President 1837 -1841 ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Ethanol Scorecard EROEI D Global Warming D Scalability D+ Timing C+ ASES July 2006

Ethanol Scorecard EROEI D Global Warming D Scalability D+ Timing C+ ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

But renewables make electricity, not liquid fuels!? • How do we handle transportation after

But renewables make electricity, not liquid fuels!? • How do we handle transportation after peak oil? ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Timing • Application Technology: PRT • Note distinction between application technology and generation technology.

Timing • Application Technology: PRT • Note distinction between application technology and generation technology. • In relationship to peak oil and climate change, uses of energy are as critical as sources of energy. ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Freeway at Capacity ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Freeway at Capacity ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Vehicles Removed ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Vehicles Removed ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

PRT Passengers ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

PRT Passengers ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

PRT System ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

PRT System ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Solar PRT ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Solar PRT ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Solar PRT • • 10 kw @ 100 mph 36 vehicles/mi at 1 second

Solar PRT • • 10 kw @ 100 mph 36 vehicles/mi at 1 second interval 360 kw needed in a mile stretch 68 watts / lineal ft per lane at peak sun 10 hrs peak operation, 5 hrs sun 720 kw / mile 8. 3 ft wide solar panel at full capacity ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Solar PRT Capacity • Skytran: Two people every second – 7, 200 passengers per

Solar PRT Capacity • Skytran: Two people every second – 7, 200 passengers per hour – 72, 000 passengers per day • Rail: – About 8, 000 passengers per hour – 60, 000 passengers per day – Washington, DC ~ 41, 000 pass-mile / route-mile • Highway: 1. 2 average occupancy – 2400 persons per lane / hour ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Solar PRT Scorecard EROEI A Global Warming A Scalability B- Timing D+ ASES July

Solar PRT Scorecard EROEI A Global Warming A Scalability B- Timing D+ ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

PV: The Growth Industry Oil declines at 4%/yr(? ) PV Oil PV increases at

PV: The Growth Industry Oil declines at 4%/yr(? ) PV Oil PV increases at 50%/yr ? ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Wake Up!!! ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

Wake Up!!! ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006

ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006