Solar Meets the Peak Oil Challenge ASES Forum
- Slides: 43
Solar Meets the Peak Oil Challenge ASES Forum Peak Oil, Climate Recovery, and Renewable Energy Thursday 10: 30 am to 12: 00 pm Ron Swenson ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
Swenson’s Law ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
Roscoe Bartlett “It might seem possible to “fill the gap” in the short term. However, in the long term, this will be impossible. For one thing, it will hasten the exhaustion of other finite resources. That will make the inevitable transition to renewable sources more difficult and more painful. ” ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
Energy Scoreboard Primary challenges are: • EROEI • Global Warming • Scalability • Timing ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
Why leave out Economics? • Economics is an instrument of policy. • It’s the last step in the process: –First figure out what works… –Then create incentives. ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
EROEI • Energy Returned On Energy Invested • ERo. EI(field) >> ERo. EI(solid, liquid, gas) ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
EROEI for PV • EPBT: 5 years • Life: 50 years • Plus it can be bootstrapped EROEI = 10 30 ~ electric ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
EROEI for Thin Film PV • EPBT: 6 months • Life: 20 years EROEI = 40 120 ~electric ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
EROEI for Wind • EPBT: 3 months • Life: 20 years EROEI = 80 240 ~ electric ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
Global Warming • Thanks to Al Gore, I can keep this short! ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
Atmospheric CO 2 ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
Larsen B Ice Shelf Collapse • Feb-Mar 2002 • In about 35 days • Larger than Rhode Island • Totally baffled scientists • 1 down, 4 to go ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
EROEI for Tar Sands Plus… • Ravaged land • Water contamination • Extraction uses natural gas • Low EROEI → EROEI = 3? ASES July 2006 Greenhouse gases www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
EROEI for Nuclear Plus … • Terrorism • Waste guarded for 10, 000+ years • Depletion → low grade ores → … How do we value a 1, 000+ year Greenhouse wasteland? gases EROEI = 4 12 ~ electric ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
EROEI for Hydrogen EROEI = -½ ASES July 2006 Am I missing something? ! www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
Scalability Solar Energy Input (Tera. Watts) 178, 00 0 Reflected to Space Immediately Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat Used to Evaporate Water (Weather) Captured by Plant Photosynthesis Total Energy Used by Human Society 53, 000 82, 000 40, 000 13 Total Energy Used by US Society 2. 5 Total Human Food Energy 0. 6 ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
Renewable Energy Solar Wind 1. 2 x 105 TW at Earth surface 600 TW practical 2 -4 TW extractable Tide/Ocean Currents 2 TW gross Geothermal 12 TW gross over land small fraction recoverable ASES July 2006 Biomass 5 -7 TW gross all cultivatable land not used for food Hydroelectric 4. 6 TW gross 1. 6 TW technically feasible 0. 9 TW economically feasible 0. 6 TW installed capacity www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
There is no Silver Bullet. Why Silver in the first place? • The Lone Range chose silver to emphasize that silver, like life, was precious and should not be wasted. • Specific gravity of Pb = 11. 35 • Specific gravity of Ag Ag = 10. 50 Ag ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
There is no Ag Bullet. • Now I think I follow what you mean. Let’s find out why…. ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
Corn Ethanol ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
Corn Ethanol • Energy content 75% from fossil fuels: – Coal (electricity) > 40% – Natural gas (to heat mash) > 30% – Not to mention fertilizer, tractor & truck fuel • • Photosynthesis 5 - 26% Depletes soil and water supplies Competes with food resources Not carbon-neutral ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
Sugar Cane Ethanol (Brazil) • • • Meets 40% of demand Brazil per capita use is 10% of US 40% x 10% = 4% Many sugar cane workers are slaves Produces aldehydes in exhaust� Soil and water conditions very different ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
Cellulosic Ethanol … Photosynthesis: Sunlight ~ 0. 25% Photosynthesis: PV (or STE) ~ 0. 5% - 2% USA: PV on all paved land ~ 11 Gb/yr 0. 1 m km 2 (150%) USA: Cellulose from all forests ~ 6 Gb/yr 3 m km 2 (80%) USA: Cellulose from all ag land ~ 3 Gb/yr 1. 5 m km 2 (40%) ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
Cellulosic Ethanol Land to achieve 30 Gb/yr 15 m km 2 Global forests 40 m km 2 “All we need to do is change the make-up of ~25% of present wooded land space. ” ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
Forest Facts • Forests cover just under 4 billion hectares, 40 million km 2 or 30% of the total land area • Global deforestation – 13 million hectares • Net loss of forests – 7. 3 million hectares • 36% of the forest area has had little or no human impact • Area of forest plantations 140 million hectares and increasing by 2. 8 million hectares/year ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
Without Cellulosic Ethanol ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … . . . not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8 th President 1837 -1841 ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
Ethanol Scorecard EROEI D Global Warming D Scalability D+ Timing C+ ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
But renewables make electricity, not liquid fuels!? • How do we handle transportation after peak oil? ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
Timing • Application Technology: PRT • Note distinction between application technology and generation technology. • In relationship to peak oil and climate change, uses of energy are as critical as sources of energy. ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
Freeway at Capacity ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
Vehicles Removed ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
PRT Passengers ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
PRT System ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
Solar PRT ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
Solar PRT • • 10 kw @ 100 mph 36 vehicles/mi at 1 second interval 360 kw needed in a mile stretch 68 watts / lineal ft per lane at peak sun 10 hrs peak operation, 5 hrs sun 720 kw / mile 8. 3 ft wide solar panel at full capacity ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
Solar PRT Capacity • Skytran: Two people every second – 7, 200 passengers per hour – 72, 000 passengers per day • Rail: – About 8, 000 passengers per hour – 60, 000 passengers per day – Washington, DC ~ 41, 000 pass-mile / route-mile • Highway: 1. 2 average occupancy – 2400 persons per lane / hour ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
Solar PRT Scorecard EROEI A Global Warming A Scalability B- Timing D+ ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
PV: The Growth Industry Oil declines at 4%/yr(? ) PV Oil PV increases at 50%/yr ? ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
Wake Up!!! ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
ASES July 2006 www. Ecotopia. com/ASES/Solar 2006
- Nuclear wasteland
- Peak to peak voltage
- Widows peak dominant
- Convert peak voltage to rms
- Emulsion identification test
- Teen challenge nottingham
- Wholesale solar panel to battery
- Solar energy is free. solar is inexhaustible
- Generally restful like the horizon
- Newton meets buzz and woody answers
- How does huck feel about not turning jim in
- Narrow band where the ocean meets land
- Where today meets tomorrow
- Piaget meets santa
- Academia meets industry
- La belle dame sans merci paraphrase
- Approaches meets masters
- Macbeth meets the witches
- Dan muse
- Reaction formation psych
- Approaches meets masters
- Proportions
- Fresh water meets salt water
- What role do automobiles seem to play in the novel so far?
- Achille et briseis
- Where tradition meets tomorrow
- Jarda meets petra
- Generally restful like the horizon where the sky meets land
- Metes and bounds
- Climate and latitude
- Congress of vienna meets
- A rule of nature that sums up related observations
- Approaches meets masters
- Business intelligence in higher education
- Fecboak
- điện thế nghỉ
- Một số thể thơ truyền thống
- Thế nào là hệ số cao nhất
- Trời xanh đây là của chúng ta thể thơ
- Slidetodoc
- Sơ đồ cơ thể người
- Bảng số nguyên tố lớn hơn 1000
- đặc điểm cơ thể của người tối cổ
- Các châu lục và đại dương trên thế giới