LargeScale Political Violence Matthew Krain The College of

Large-Scale Political Violence Matthew Krain The College of Wooster June 14, 2015 – Salt Lake City, UT

Large-Scale Political Violence LSPV & Comp Go. Po Curriculum I. Introduction (concepts) II. Sovereignty, Authority, & Power III. Political Institutions IV. Citizens, Society, & the State V. Political & Economic

Why Use Violence? • Grievances • Fear, threat Violent clash at Oxford Circus, in London, March 2011 • Rational, calculated, instrumental • Available, opportunity to use arises • Interaction between opponents

Most Important Determinants of Political Violence • Regime Type • History of Violence • Weak State • Violent Dynamics – State Resources Low – Institutional Strength – Rule of Law • Radicals • Exclusionary Ideology • Dehumanization • Resource Issues

Mexico City, 2014 Oaxaca, 2006 Violent Protest

Tiananmen, 1989 Repression Tibet, today

Riots • violent spontaneou s civilian events • groups challenging policy or hardship

Riots Russia Riot Police, December 2012 London Riots, August 2011

Communal Conflict – Causes • divisions do NOT cause conflict! – conflicts do not just happen; they are made! – based on fear, uncertainty, history of past interactions – leaders manipulate frames conflict Yoruba man attacked by Hausa

Communal Conflict – Dynamics Can spiral out of control of leaders who initiate it: • hard to stop feeling threatened once fighting has begun • conflict reinforces the fear of the other To stop it, focus on: • reigning in agents of violence • reducing group demonization • threat reduction • good governance Yoruba man attacked by • grievances Hausa

Irredentism The “Annexation” of Crimea “Kurdistan” Map of Greater

Insurgencies Factors favoring insurgency • State Weakness, Corruption • Indiscriminate Repression • Support of population • Self-financing or patron • Geography Baluchi insurgents at a camp in Pakistan's Baluchistan Province (AFP)

Rebellion • Open, organized, armed resistance to governing authority • Usually vs. specific policy, restriction, or requirement Chiapas Rebellion

Civil Wars • Large-scale conflict within same political unit • Multiple sovereignty claims • Subcategories – by type (control of what? ): – Wars of Secession or Self-determination – Revolutions

Civil Wars – Causes & Dynamics Causes: • grievances needed, BUT… • it’s more about WEAK states • + poverty (of state), repression, hopelessness Dynamics: • start out as movements for reform • change depends upon state reaction • deadly, esp. to civilians caught between sides

Secession / Self. Determination Nigeria: The Biafran War (1967 -1970)

X Revolution “overthrow of one system of government and its replacement by a different regime, accomplished by a violent mass uprising” (Klesner / Sodaro)

Revolutions The Chinese Revolution

Revolutionary Ideology

Iranian Revolution

X Coup d’Etat “Military takeover of a government” (Drogus & Orvis) “A move in which military forces take control of the government by force” (O’Neil) “A forceful takeover of state power by the military” (Klesner / Sodaro) Nigeria – Gen. Sani Abacha (1993) [Source: https: //youtu. be/udxpj. Upw. C 0 E]

Coup d’Etat From Ulfelder (2013): (1) force deployed (2) by political insiders (3) chief executive replaced (4) legal procedures not followed

Coup d’Etat From Ulfelder (2013): (1) force deployed (2) by political insiders (3) chief executive replaced (4) legal procedures not followed Animated Map: Coup Attempts Worldwide: 19892013 Source: Dart-Throwing Chimp, 11/22/13: http: //wp. me/p 1 dom. H-1 g. U

Terrorism (by non-state actors) • politically motivated use of unconventional violence • designed to gain publicity, magnify power, instill FEAR • non-state actors, outgroups, w/out legitimate status • proximate victims NOT main targets • targets = people/institutions in power, society as a whole London attack, July 200

Terrorism • Terrorism (by non-state actors) • State terrorism • State-sponsored terrorism

g n i l l i K Mass by e t a t S Non ISIS/Daesh 2015 s r o Act Boko Haram, August 24, 2014

Police in Gue vs. stu rrero, Mexi co dents, 2014 aram”, H o k o B “. s v Nigerian Army 2014 Massacres (by the state)

Paramilitary Groups Nigerian army-backed paramilitary group, 2014 Russian-backed Ukrainian paramilitary group, 2014

Amnesty International: Torture Allegations, 1995 -2005 Source: Quantitative Peace, 1/15/14: http: //quantitativepeace. com/blog/2014/01/mapping-torture-allegations-using-

Torture Iran 2009 ? Britain, 2002+ ne) i l d a e h 4 1 / 1 1 / (12