Tarheel Consultancy Services Manipal Karnataka 1 Corporate Training

Tarheel Consultancy Services Manipal, Karnataka 1

Corporate Training and Consulting 2

Course on Fixed Income Securities For XIM -Bhubaneshwar 3

For PGP-II 2003 -2005 Batch Term-V: September-December 2004 4

Module-I Part-IV Prices & Yields: Advanced Concepts 5

Valuation in between Coupon Dates n n n While valuing a bond we assumed that we were standing on a coupon payment date. This is a significant assumption because it implies that the next coupon is exactly one period away. What should be the procedure if the valuation date is in between two coupon payment dates? 6

The Procedure for Treasury Bonds n n Calculate the actual number of days between the date of valuation and the next coupon date. Include the next coupon date. But do not include the starting date. Let us call this interval N 1. 7

Treasury Bonds (Cont…) n n n Calculate the actual number of days between the coupon date preceding the valuation date and the following coupon date. Once again include the ending date but exclude the starting date. Let us call this time interval as N 2. 8

Treasury Bonds (Cont…) n The next coupon is then k periods away where 9

Illustration n n There is a Treasury bond with a face value of $1, 000. The coupon rate is 8% per annum, paid on a semi-annual basis. The coupon dates are 15 July and 15 January. The maturity date is 15 January 2022. Today is 15 September 2002. 10

No. of Days Till the Next Coupon Date Month No. of Days September 15 October 31 November 30 December 31 January 15 TOTAL 122 11

No. of Days between Coupon Dates Month July August September October November December January TOTAL No. of Days 16 31 30 31 15 184 12

Treasury Bonds (Cont…) n n n K = 122/184 =. 6630 This method is called the Actual/Actual method and is often pronounced as the Ack/Ack method. It is the method used for Treasury bonds in the U. S. 13

The Valuation Equation n Wall Street professionals will then price the bond using the following equation. 14

Valuation n In our example 15

The 30/360 Approach n n The Actual/Actual method is applicable for Treasury bonds in the U. S. For corporate bonds in the U. S. we use what is called the 30/360 method. In this method the number of days between successive coupon dates is always taken to be 180. That is each month is considered to be of 30 days. 16

The 30/360 Approach (Cont…) n n n The number of days from the date of valuation till the next coupon date is calculated as follows. The start date is defined as D 1 = (month 1, day 1, year 1) The ending date is defined as D 2 = (month 2, day 2, year 2) 17

The 30/360 Approach (Cont…) n n The number of days is then calculated as 360(year 2 – year 1) + 30(month 2 – month 1) + (day 2 – day 1) 18

Additional Rules n n n If day 1 = 31 then set day 1 = 30 If day 1 = 30 or has been set equal to 30, then if day 2 = 31, set day 2 = 30 If day 1 is the last day of February, then set day 1 = 30 19

Examples of Calculations Start Date End Date Actual Days Based on 30/360 Jan-01 -86 Jan-15 -86 Feb-01 -86 31 17 30 16 Feb-15 -86 Jul-15 -86 Nov-01 -86 Dec-15 -86 Dec-31 -86 Feb-01 -88 Apr-01 -86 Sep-15 -86 Mar-01 -87 Dec-31 -86 Feb-01 -87 Mar-01 -88 45 62 120 16 31 29 46 60 120 16 31 30 20

Pricing of A Corporate Bond n Let us assume that the bond considered earlier was a corporate bond rather than a Treasury bond. 21

Pricing (Cont…) 22

30/360 European Convention n n In this convention, if day 2 = 31, then it is always set equal to 30. So the additional rules are: If day 1 = 31 then set day 1 = 30 If day 2 = 31 then set day 2 = 30 If day 1 is the last day of February, then set day 1 = 30 23

Examples of Calculations Start Date End Date Actual Days Mar-31 -86 Dec-31 -86 275 Days Based on 30/360 E 270 Dec-15 -86 Dec-31 -86 16 15 24

Other Conventions n n n Actual/365 Convention In this case the year is considered to have 365 days, while calculating the denominator, even in leap years. Actual/365 Japanese This is used for Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) It is similar to the Actual/365 method. The only difference is that in this case, the extra day in February is ignored in leap years, while calculating both the numerator and the denominator. 25

Accrued Interest n n n The price of a bond is the present value of all the cash flows that the buyer will receive when he buys the bond. Thus the seller is compensated for all the cash flows that he is parting with. This compensation includes the amount due for the fact that the seller is parting with the entire next coupon, although he has held it for a part of the current coupon period. 26

Accrued Interest (Cont…) n n n This compensation is called Accrued Interest. Let us denote the sale date by t; the previous coupon date by t 1; and the following coupon date by t 2 The accrued interest is given by 27

Accrued Interest (Cont…) n n Both the numerator and the denominator are calculated according to the conventions discussed above. That is for U. S. Treasury bonds the Actual/Actual method is used, whereas for U. S. corporate bonds the 30/360 method is used. 28

Why Accrued Interest? n n n Why should we calculate the accrued interest if it is already included in the price calculation? The answer is that the quoted bond price does not include accrued interest. That is, quoted prices are net of accrued interest. 29

Why Accrued Interest? (Cont…) n n The rationale is as follows. On July 15 the price of the Treasury bond using a YTM of 10% was $829. 83. On September 15 the price using a yield of 10% is $843. 5906. Since the required yield on both the days is the same, the increase in price is entirely due to the accrued interest. 30

Why Accrued Interest (Cont…) n n n On July 15 the accrued interest is zero. This is true because on a coupon payment date, the accrued interest has to be zero. On September 15 the accrued interest is 31

Why Accrued Interest? (Cont…) n n The price net of accrued interest is $843. 5906 - $13. 4783 = $830. 1123$, which is very close to the price of $829. 83 that was observed on July 15. We know that as the required yield changes, so will the price. If the accrued interest is not subtracted from the price before being quoted, then we would be unsure as to whether the observed price change is due to a change in the market yield or is entirely due to accrued interest. 32

Why Accrued Interest? (Cont…) n n However if prices are reported net of accrued interest, then in the short run, observed price changes will be entirely due to changes in the market yield. Consequently bond prices are always reported after subtracting the accrued interest. 33

Clean versus Dirty Prices n n n Quoted bond prices are called clean or add-interest prices. When a bond is purchased in addition to the quoted price, the accrued interest has also to be paid. The total price that is paid is called the dirty price or the flat price. 34

Yield Measures n n The yield or the rate of return from a bond can and is computed in various ways. We will discuss various yield measures and their relative merits and demerits. 35

The Current Yield n n n This is very commonly reported. Although it is technically very unsatisfactory. It relates the annual coupon payment to the current market price. 36

Example of the Current Yield n n A 15 year 15% coupon bond is currently selling for $800. The current yield is given by 37

Current Yield (Cont…) n n n If you buy this bond for $800 and hold it for one year you will earn an interest income of $150. So your interest yield is 18. 75% However, if you sell it after one year you will either make a Capital Gain or a Capital Loss. 38

Current Yield (Cont…) n n What is a Capital Gain? If the price at the time of sale is higher than the price at which the bond was bought, the profit is termed as a Capital Gain. Else if there is a loss, it is termed a Capital Loss. The current yield does not take such gains and losses into account. 39

Current Yield (Cont…) n n On the other hand if you choose to hold on to the bond at the end of one year, you will earn additional coupons. This aspect too is ignored by the Current Yield computation. 40

Yield to Maturity (YTM) n n The YTM is the interest rate that equates the present value of the cash flows from the bond (assuming that the bond is held to maturity), to the price of the bond. It is exactly analogous to the concept of the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) used in project valuation. 41

YTM (Cont…) n n Consider a bond that makes an annual coupon of C on a semi-annual basis. The face value is M, the price is P, and the number of coupons remaining is N. 42

YTM (Cont…) n The YTM is the value of y that satisfies the following equation. 43

YTM (Cont…) n n The YTM is a solution to a non-linear equation. We generally require a financial calculator or a computer to calculate it. However it is fairly simple to compute the YTM in the case of a coupon paying bond with exactly two periods to maturity. In such a case it is simply a solution to a quadratic equation. 44

YTM for a Zero Coupon Bond n n The YTM is easy to compute in the case of zero coupon bonds. Consider a ZCB with a face value of $1, 000, maturing after 5 years. The current price is $500. The YTM is the solution to 45

Features of YTM n The YTM calculation takes into account all the coupon payments, as well as any capital gains/losses that accrue to an investor who buys and holds a bond to maturity. 46

Sources of Returns From a Bond n n n A bondholder can expect to receive income from the following sources. Firstly there are coupon payments which are typically paid every six months. There will be a capital gain/loss when a bond matures or is called before maturity or is sold before maturity. 47

Returns From a Bond (Cont…) n n The YTM calculation assumes that the bond is held to maturity. Finally when a coupon is received it will have to be reinvested till the time the bond eventually matures or is sold or is called. Once again the YTM calculation assumes that the bond is held till maturity. The reinvestment income is nothing but interest on interest. 48

YTM n n n A satisfactory measure of the yield should take into account all the three sources of income. The current yield measure considers only the coupon for the first year. All the other factors are totally ignored. 49

YTM (Cont…) n n The YTM calculation takes into account all the three sources of income. However it makes two key assumptions. Firstly it assumes that the bond is held till maturity. Secondly it assumes that all intermediate coupons are reinvested at the YTM itself. 50

YTM (Cont…) n n The latter assumption is built in to the mathematics of the YTM calculation. The YTM is called a Promised Yield. It is Promised because in order to realize it you have to satisfy both the above conditions. If either of the two conditions is violated you may not get what was promised. 51

The Re-investment Assumption n Consider a bond that pays a semiannual coupon of $C/2. Let r be the annual rate of interest at which these coupons can be re-invested. r would be dependent on the market rate of interest that is prevailing when the coupon is received, and need not be equal to y, the YTM, or c, the coupon rate. 52

Reinvestment (Cont…) n n n For ease of exposition we will assume that r is a constant for the life of the bond. However, in practice, it is likely that each coupon may have to be reinvested at a different rate of interest. Thus each coupon can be re-invested at a rate of r/2 per six monthly period. 53

Reinvestment (Cont…) n n n The coupon stream is an annuity. The final payoff from re-investment is the future value of this annuity. The future value is 54

Reinvestment (Cont…) n n The future value represents the sum of all the coupons which are reinvested (which in this case is the principal), plus the interest from re-investment. The total value of coupons that are reinvested is 55

Re-investment (Cont…) n The interest on interest is therefore The YTM Calculation assumes that r/2 = y/2. 56

Reinvestment in Action n n Consider an L&T bond with 10 years to maturity. The face value is Rs 1, 000. It pay a semi-annual coupon at the rate of 10% per annum. The YTM is 12% per annum. Price can be calculated to be Rs 885. 295. 57

Reinvestment in Action (Cont…) n n Assume that the semi-annual interest payments can be reinvested at a six monthly rate of 6%, which corresponds to a nominal annual rate of 12%. The total coupon income = 50 x 20 = 1000 58

Reinvestment in Action (Cont…) n Interest on interest gotten by reinvesting the coupons 59

Reinvestment in Action (Cont…) Finally in the end you will get back the face value of Rs 1, 000. n So the total cash flow at the end = 1000 + 839. 3 + 1000 = 2839. 3 n To get this income, the bondholder has to make an initial investment of 885. 295. n 60

Reinvestment in Action (Cont…) n n So what is the effective rate of return? It is the value of i that satisfies the following equation 61

Reinvestment in Action (Cont…) n n n So the rate of return is 6% on a semiannual basis or 12% on a nominal annual basis, which is exactly the same as the YTM. So how was this return achieved? Only by being able to reinvest all the coupons at a nominal annual rate of 12%, compounded on a semi-annual basis. 62

The Significance of the Reinvestment Rate n n n The reinvestment rate affects only the interest on interest income. The other two sources are unaffected. If r > y, that is if the reinvestment rate were to be higher than the YTM, then the investor’s interest on interest income would be higher, and the return on investment, i, would be greater than the YTM, y. 63

The Reinvestment Rate (Cont…) n n On the contrary, if r < y, that is, the reinvestment rate is less than the YTM, then the interest on interest income would be lower, and the rate of return, i, would be less than the YTM, y. So if you buy a bond by paying a price which corresponds to a given YTM, you will realize that YTM only if You hold the bond till maturity You are able to reinvest all the intermediate coupons at the YTM. 64

Reinvestment Risk n n n One of the risks faced by an investor is that the future reinvestment rates may be less than the YTM which was in effect at the time the bond was purchased. This risk is called Reinvestment Risk. The degree of reinvestment risk depends on the time to maturity as well as the quantum of the coupon. 65

Reinvestment Risk (Cont…) n n For a bond with a given YTM, and a coupon rate, the greater the time to maturity, the more dependent is the total return from the bond on the reinvestment income. Thus everything else remaining constant, the longer the term to maturity, the greater is the reinvestment risk. 66

Reinvestment Risk (Cont…) n n For a bond with a given maturity and YTM, the greater the quantum of the coupon, or in other words, the higher the coupon rate, the more dependent is the total return on the reinvestment income. Thus everything else remaining the same, the larger the coupon rate, the greater is the reinvestment risk. 67

Reinvestment Risk (Cont…) n n Thus premium bonds will be more vulnerable to such risks than bonds selling at par. Correspondingly, discount bonds will be less vulnerable than bonds selling at par. 68

Zero Coupon Bonds and Reinvestment Risk n n If a zero coupon bond is held to maturity, there will be no reinvestment risk, because there are no coupons to reinvest. Thus if a ZCB is held to maturity, the actual rate of return will be equal to the promised YTM. If the risk is lower or absent, the return should also be less. Thus a ZCB will command a higher price than an otherwise similar Plain Vanilla bond. 69

The Realized Compound Yield n n n We will continue with the assumption that the bond is held till maturity. But we will make an explicit assumption about the rate at which the coupons can be reinvested. That is, unlike in the case of the YTM, we will no longer take it for granted that intermediate cash flows can be reinvested at the YTM. 70

Illustration n Let us reconsider the L&T bond. Assume that intermediate coupons can be reinvested at 7% for six months, or at a nominal annual rate of 14%. The total coupon income and the final face value payment will remain the same, but the reinvestment income will change. 71

Illustration (Cont…) n The interest on interest 72

Illustration (Cont…) So the final amount received = 1000 + 1049. 75 + 1000 = 3049. 75 n The initial investment is once again 885. 295 n Therefore, the rate of return is given by n 73

Illustration (Cont…) n n n This is the rate of return for six months. The nominal annual return is 6. 38 x 2 = 12. 76%, which is greater than the YTM of 12%. The RCY is greater than the YTM, because we assumed that the reinvestment rate was greater than the YTM. 74

Illustration (Cont…) n n n Had we assumed the reinvestment rate to be less than the YTM, the RCY would have turned out to be less than the YTM. The RCY can be an ex-ante or an expost measure. Ex-ante means that we make an assumption about the reinvestment rate and then calculate the RCY. 75

Illustration (Cont…) n Ex-post means that we take into account the actual rate at which we have been able to reinvest and calculate the RCY. 76

The Horizon Return n Let us now relax both the assumptions which were used to calculate the YTM. Firstly the investor need not hold the bond until maturity. Secondly he may not be able to reinvest the coupons at the YTM. 77

The Horizon Return (Cont…) n n Now the return will depend on three sources – the coupons received, the reinvestment income, and the price at which the bond is sold prior to maturity. The important issue is that the sale price of the bond would depend on the prevailing market yield at that point in time, and need not equal the face value. 78

Illustration n n Assume that an investor with a 7 year investment horizon buys the L&T bond that we discussed earlier. He will get coupons for 14 periods (not 20). The total coupon income will be 50 x 14 = 700 We will assume that the reinvestment rate is expected to be 7% per six 79 monthly period.

Illustration (Cont…) n n n We will also assume that the investor expects the YTM after 7 years to be 12% per annum. The first step is to calculate the expected price at the time of sale. At that point in time the bond will have 3 years to maturity. 80

Illustration (Cont…) n n The price using a YTM of 12% can be shown to be Rs 950. 865. The interest on interest 81

Illustration (Cont…) The total terminal cash flow = 700 + 427. 50 + 950. 865 = 2, 078. 365 n The initial investment as before is 885. 295 n 82

Illustration (Cont…) n n n The nominal annual rate of return is 6. 29 x 2 = 12. 58% This is the Horizon Yield. Once again, it can be calculated ex-post or ex-ante. 83

Yield to Call (YTC) n n n This measure of the rate of return is used for callable bonds. The YTC is the yield that will make the present value of the cash flows from the bond equal to the price, assuming the bond is held till the call date. In principle a bond can have many possible call dates. 84

YTC (Cont…) n n In practice the cash flows are usually taken only till the first call date, although they can easily be taken to any subsequent call date. The YTC is given by the equation 85

YTC (Cont…) n n n N* is the number of coupons till the call date. M* is the price at which the bond is expected to be recalled. M* need not equal the face value. In practice companies pay as much as one year’s coupon as a Call Premium at the time of recall. If so, M* = M + C 86

Illustration (Cont…) n n Let us assume that the L&T bond is a callable bond and that the first call date is 7 years away. Assume that a call premium of Rs 100 will be paid if the bond is recalled. 87

Illustration (Cont…) n The YTC is the solution to the following equation 88

Illustration (Cont…) n n The solution comes out to be 6. 74%. So the YTC on an annual basis is 13. 48%. The YTC is very important for Premium Bonds. The very fact that a bond is selling at a premium, indicates that the coupon is greater than the yield, and that therefore there is a greater chance of 89 recall.

The Yield to Worst n n n In practice the investors compute the YTC for every possible call date. They then compute the YTM as well. The lowest of all possible values is called the Yield to Worst. 90

Portfolio Yield n n Consider a case where you hold a portfolio or a collection of bonds. You cannot simply calculate the yield from the portfolio as a weighted average of the YTMs of the individual bonds. 91

Portfolio Yield (Cont…) n You have to first compute the cash flows from the portfolio, and then find that interest rate which will make the present value of the cash flows equal to the sum of the prices of the component bonds. 92

Illustration n Consider a person who buys a TELCO bond a Ranbaxy bond. The TELCO bond has a time to maturity of 5 years, face value of 1000, and pays coupons semi-annually at the rate of 10% per annum. The YTM is 12% per annum. 93

Illustration (Cont…) n n The Ranbaxy bond has a face value of 1000, time to maturity of 4 years, and pays a coupon of 10% per annum semiannually. The YTM is 16% per annum. Consider a portfolio consisting of one bond of each company. What is the portfolio yield? 94

Illustration (Cont…) n n n The first step is to calculate the two prices. The price of the TELCO bond can be shown to be 926. 405. The price of the Ranbaxy bond can be shown to be 827. 63. The total initial investment is therefore 1, 754. 035 95

The Cash Flow Table Period Investment Inflow from Total TELCO Ranbaxy 0 (1754. 035) 1 50 50 100 2 50 50 100 3 50 50 100 4 50 50 100 5 50 50 100 6 50 50 100 7 50 50 100 8 50 1050 1100 9 50 50 10 1050 96

Illustration (Cont…) n Using a financial calculator or a spread sheet, the portfolio yield can be calculated to be 13. 76%. 97