Planning for Connected and Automated Vehicles Jeremy Raw

Planning for Connected and Automated Vehicles Jeremy Raw, PE Federal Highway Administration Office of Planning, Systems Planning and Analysis Team September 15, 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 1

Performance-Based Planning Jeremy Raw, PE Federal Highway Administration Office of Planning, Systems Planning and Analysis Team September 15, 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 2

Overview • • Definitions Making Plans What Comes Next Retooling 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 3

Definitions “The beginning of wisdom is the definition of terms. ” ― Socrates 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 4

Definitions: Connected <> Automated • Connected Vehicles – Communicate directly (car knows first) – See over hills and around corners (“invisible” data) – Optimized information • Automated Vehicles – Car knows what to do – Car just does it 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 5

Definitions: Autonomous Vehicles • • • Everything necessary is “on board” Sensors Maps Algorithms No special needs (infrastructure, supportive tech) – Really? 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 6

Definitions: Connected Automation • Not necessarily autonomous – Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC) • • Car uses specialized data to situate itself Car responds automatically Reliance on “Enabling Technologies” Reduced driver involvement 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 7

Benefits of CV (and AV? ) • Safety – Crash avoidance • Mobility – Improve quality of driving experience – Allow non-drivers to participate • Environment / Sustainability – Reduce resource consumption – Reduce pollution 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 8

NHTSA Automation Levels • • • Level 0 – Notify the driver Level 1 – One dimensional control Level 2 – Multifunction coordination Level 3 – Limited driver disengagement Level 4 – “No steering wheel” 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 9

Levels of Automation (NHTSA) • Oriented toward "human factors“ – What does each level mean for the driver? • Not a straight line of development – Level 3 is not a prerequisite for Level 4 • Each level poses unique challenges – For engineers, and also for planners 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 10

CV/AV Champions: Public / USDOT • USDOT – ITS Joint Program Office (ITS JPO) – FHWA • R&D, Safety, Operations, Planning Offices – NHTSA • Hardware mandates • Safety ramifications – FTA • Transit automation 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 11

CV/AV Champions: Private • OEMs ("Car Companies") – Cool technology sells cars – CAMP - Collision Avoidance Metrics Partnership (FHWA Participates) • Non-traditional partners – Google, Tesla, Apple, Uber… 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 12

Making Plans “The plan … tries on reality to see if it fits. ” - Laurence Gonzales 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 13

Planning Challenges • What to build – or not to build • When to build it – Prioritization – Level of effort and investment 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 14

Learning from the past to create the future • "Building a better today, tomorrow“ • However: – Increasingly complex circumstances – Increasingly uncertain developments – No “straight line” from today to tomorrow • Plus – New Priorities 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 15

Planning Challenges: Questions • • What do we need to know? What do we currently know? How to address the knowledge gap? What is the necessary time horizon? 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 16

The case for doing nothing • Initial applications (especially automation) – Championed by OEMs – Market will determine what happens • Do we know enough to intervene effectively? – Enlisting cooperation? – Mandatory enforcement? 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 17

The problem with doing nothing • System does not operate effectively • Wasted opportunities for improvement • Spending on obsolete/irrelevant facilities 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 18

V 2 I Deployment • Forthcoming deployment guidance • New infrastructure investment (ITS+) • Bi-directional information flow – Gather roadway performance information • Roadside beacons – e. g. ice/weather, incidents – Better positioning than available by GPS 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 19

What Comes Next If we wait until we've satisfied all the uncertainties, it may be too late. - Lee Iacocca 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 20

Disruptive Technology • A new “value proposition” • People learn new ways of behaving, living, and moving • Food for thought: – Young people getting driver license later – Reduced VMT per capita (“peak travel”) – Rise of “shared transportation” 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 21

Future Scenarios • • Operating in Mixed Traffic Dedicated Facilities Digital Infrastructure Automated Transit 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 22

Scenario: Mixed Traffic The. Oatmeal. Com 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 23

Scenario: Mixed Traffic 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 24

Scenario: Mixed Traffic • Moving in traffic is a “conversation” • Automated vehicles vs. “entrepreneurs” • Connected Vehicles as traffic probes 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 25

Scenario: Dedicated Facilities • Connected Vehicle Managed Lanes – Increases effective fleet penetration – Relatively little new infrastructure – Increases incentive for adoption • However – Equitable resource allocation (lane access) – Discharge capacity 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 26

Scenario: Digital Infrastructure 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 27

Scenario: Digital Infrastructure • Who manages the “electronic map”? – Public or private • “Autonomy” is probably an illusion – Connectivity is still implied – Real battle: connected with who or what? – Automated vehicle “help line” vs TMC 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 28

Scenario: Digital Infrastructure 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 29

Scenario: Automated Transit • Automated Neighborhood Transit • Demand responsive – Look up schedule vs. book a ride • Transit provision and taxi-like services • Mass transit versus personal transit 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 30

Shadows on the Horizon • Waze and Local Road Use – Repurposing existing facilities • New physical requirements – AV “safe havens” • Liability and Responsibility – Mandating driver/vehicle conformity 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 31

Shadows on the Horizon • The Third Dimension – Parcel-packing drones – Leaving from where? • “Zero-Occupant” vehicles – Who manages where they go or park? 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 32

Retooling “You can't predict the future, but you can plan for it. ” - Saji Ijiyemi 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 33

The Way Things Used to Be • Planning is part of “site preparation” • “Railroading” • Robert Moses 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 34

Revisiting the Battlefields • Private railroads and public sector • The future of urban interstates • “Championship” versus public process 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 35

What do Planners Do? • The old paradigm: – Planning, Environment, Realty – We already know what we need to do – “Clearing the Way” • The new paradigm – We have evolving ideas of what we want – Not at all clear how to get there – Desire outpaces reality 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 36

Performance-Based Planning Jeremy Raw, PE Federal Highway Administration Office of Planning, Systems Planning and Analysis Team September 15, 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 37

Performance-Based Planning 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 38

Performance-Based Planning • • What do we want? How do we measure it? Where are we now? How do we move toward our targets? 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 39

Performance-Based Planning • An “agile” process • Redefine and redevelop as we learn • Relevant to Connectivity & Automation – New data sources (V 2 I) – Feedback to goals and objectives – “How are we doing? ” 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 40

Planning for Disruption • Planning tools rely on lots of assumptions – What goes in – What comes out (and what it means) – What happens inside • Our favorite assumptions are easily broken – Or at least rendered irrelevant – For example: HCM signal methodology • Behavioral parameters are shifting 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 41

New Questions for New Data • What is out there? • How is it performing? • How do we account for what we see? – “Statistical Noise”? – “Market Correction”? – “Structural Shift”? 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 42

“Defensive” Modeling • Models are tools for thinking – Test assumptions and interpretations – Evaluate rather than predict • Focus more on what goes in – Including the assumptions! • Focus less on what comes out – Comparisons are worth more than Forecasts 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 43

Modeling Connected and Automated Vehicles • Scenario planning: – “What if we aimed for Future X? ” • Feasibility: – “Is it possible? ” – “What would it take to get there? ” • Costs and Benefits: – “Can we afford it? ” • Reality check: – “What’s really happening now? ” 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 44

Final Words • Expect to plan for an uncertain future • Aim high and adjust as necessary • Invest in “enabling technologies” – Forthcoming V 2 I deployment guidance • Think carefully about your assumptions • Use models “defensively” 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 45

Resources • Forthcoming FHWA resources – Vehicle to Infrastructure Deployment Guidance and associated resources (forthcoming, 10/2015) – Planning Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles, (forthcoming, Fall 2015) 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 46

Planning for Connected and Automated Vehicles Jeremy Raw, PE Federal Highway Administration Office of Planning, Systems Planning and Analysis Team September 15, 2015 WVDOT/MPO/FHWA Transportation Planning Conference 47