PerformanceBased Planning for Vehicle Automation Jeremy Raw FHWA

Performance-Based Planning for Vehicle Automation Jeremy Raw FHWA Office of Planning November 19, 2015 10/20/2015 Planning for Connected & Automated Vehicles: Jeremy Raw 1

The Automated Car Feels Your Pain The. Oatmeal. Com Planning for Connected & Automated Vehicles: Jeremy Raw 2

Performance-Based Planning for Vehicle Automation • Keep Calm • Uncertainty is Not Your Enemy • You Already Have the Tools you Need Planning for Connected & Automated Vehicles: Jeremy Raw 3

The Original Connected Vehicles 10/20/2015 Planning for Connected & Automated Vehicles: Jeremy Raw 4

The Original Connected Vehicle Planning Issues “Railroading” 10/20/2015 Planning for Connected & Automated Vehicles: Jeremy Raw 5

Manifest Destiny 10/20/2015 Planning for Connected & Automated Vehicles: Jeremy Raw 6

Manifest Destiny Planning Issues 10/20/2015 Planning for Connected & Automated Vehicles: Jeremy Raw 7

The Age of Uncertainty 10/20/2015 Planning for Connected & Automated Vehicles: Jeremy Raw 8

The Age of Uncertainty Planning Issues y Safet Air Qua Finan lity Sustaina bility 10/20/2015 y t i u Eq R ce y t i l i b elia Planning for Connected & Automated Vehicles: Jeremy Raw 9

The Age of Uncertainty Planning Issues y Safet Air Qua Finan lity Sustaina bility 10/20/2015 y t i u Eq R ce y t i l i b elia Planning for Connected & Automated Vehicles: Jeremy Raw 10

Planning for Uncertainty • Know what you want – What is a good outcome? A bad one? – How do we figure out what we want? – Whose desires get implemented? • Know the constraints – What is possible? (there are limits) – What is necessary? (a moving target) – What is inevitable? (less than you think) Planning for Connected & Automated Vehicles: Jeremy Raw 11

The Case for Doing Nothing • There are questions we can’t answer now • What will automation mean? • What actions might be called for? • When should we start making new plans? Planning for Connected & Automated Vehicles: Jeremy Raw 12

What Are We Planning For? • Prepare for the very dangerous – e. g. New safety issues • Prepare for the very likely – Well understood effects – Strongly desired outcomes • Recognize when action is necessary – “Year of Decision” Planning for Connected & Automated Vehicles: Jeremy Raw 13

Performance-Based Planning 10/20/2015 Planning for Connected & Automated Vehicles: Jeremy Raw 14

Performance-Based Planning • • Visioning and Goal Setting Formulate metrics and measures Gather data Estimate outcomes Implement projects Evaluate results Do it all again (over and over) 10/20/2015 Planning for Connected & Automated Vehicles: Jeremy Raw 15

Watch What is Happening • Data sources: old and new – Connected vehicles as “Two-way ITS” • Early warning about new challenges Planning for Connected & Automated Vehicles: Jeremy Raw 16

Planning for Automation: Key Steps • Data collection and analysis – Understand the future as it emerges – Prioritize Enabling Technologies like Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V 2 I) • Performance-based modeling – Models as tools for data analysis and scenario evaluation – De-emphasize precise predictions 10/20/2015 Planning for Connected & Automated Vehicles: Jeremy Raw 17