Estimating oceanatmosphere carbon fluxes from atmospheric oxygen measurements
![Estimating ocean-atmosphere carbon fluxes from atmospheric oxygen measurements Mark Battle (Bowdoin College) Michael Bender Estimating ocean-atmosphere carbon fluxes from atmospheric oxygen measurements Mark Battle (Bowdoin College) Michael Bender](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-1.jpg)
Estimating ocean-atmosphere carbon fluxes from atmospheric oxygen measurements Mark Battle (Bowdoin College) Michael Bender & Nicolas Cassar (Princeton) Roberta Hamme (U BC), Ralph Keeling (SIO) Cindy Nevison (NCAR) UNESCO Surface Ocean CO 2 Variability and Vulnerabilities Workshop April 12, 2007 Funding from: NSF, NOAA GCRP, BP-Amoco, NASA, UNESCO
![On the agenda: • Oxygen, O 2/N 2, APO and Carbon Fluxes • What On the agenda: • Oxygen, O 2/N 2, APO and Carbon Fluxes • What](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-2.jpg)
On the agenda: • Oxygen, O 2/N 2, APO and Carbon Fluxes • What can (did) one do with APO? – – – The ancient past (Keeling, Stephens) The recent past (Gruber, Tohjima, Battle, Naegler) The present: Models (Nevison) The present: Data (Tohjima, Hamme) The present: Data & Models (Rödenbeck)
![What determines the amount of O 2 in the atmosphere? What determines the amount of O 2 in the atmosphere?](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-3.jpg)
What determines the amount of O 2 in the atmosphere?
![1 st order description of long-term fluxes 1 st order description of long-term fluxes](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-4.jpg)
1 st order description of long-term fluxes
![More detail on the oceans Seasonality… More detail on the oceans Seasonality…](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-5.jpg)
More detail on the oceans Seasonality…
![1. 4 1. 1 1. 4 1. 1](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-6.jpg)
1. 4 1. 1
![](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-7.jpg)
![](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-8.jpg)
![More detail on the oceans Seasonality and secular trends More detail on the oceans Seasonality and secular trends](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-9.jpg)
More detail on the oceans Seasonality and secular trends
![](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-10.jpg)
![](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-11.jpg)
![](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-12.jpg)
![Atmospheric Potential Oxygen APO O 2 + 1. 1 CO 2 APO reflects air/ocean Atmospheric Potential Oxygen APO O 2 + 1. 1 CO 2 APO reflects air/ocean](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-13.jpg)
Atmospheric Potential Oxygen APO O 2 + 1. 1 CO 2 APO reflects air/ocean O 2 & CO 2 fluxes Land biota doesn’t change APO Fossil fuels change APO a little
![O 2/N 2 & APO changes are small O 2/N 2 per meg (O O 2/N 2 & APO changes are small O 2/N 2 per meg (O](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-14.jpg)
O 2/N 2 & APO changes are small O 2/N 2 per meg (O 2/N 2 sa – O 2/N 2 st)/(O 2/N 2 st) x 106 1 per meg = 0. 0001% = 0. 001 per mil 1 Pg. C FF 3. 2 per meg O 2/N 2 0. 66 per meg APO 1 Pg. C into oceans 2. 5 per meg APO* *assuming no corresponding O 2 flux
![What controls APO? • Ocean biology (light, nutrients, etc. ) • Ocean chemistry (O What controls APO? • Ocean biology (light, nutrients, etc. ) • Ocean chemistry (O](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-15.jpg)
What controls APO? • Ocean biology (light, nutrients, etc. ) • Ocean chemistry (O 2 & CO 2 equilibration) • Ocean temperature (solubility & stratification) • Ocean circulation (shallow & deep) • Atmospheric transport • Fossil fuel (a little)
![A brief history of time APO A brief history of time APO](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-16.jpg)
A brief history of time APO
![In the beginning… In the beginning…](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-17.jpg)
In the beginning…
![Stephens et al. , 1998 Models don’t get interpolar gradient right (physics? ) Equatorial Stephens et al. , 1998 Models don’t get interpolar gradient right (physics? ) Equatorial](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-18.jpg)
Stephens et al. , 1998 Models don’t get interpolar gradient right (physics? ) Equatorial data would be nice.
![The next chapter… The next chapter…](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-19.jpg)
The next chapter…
![p. CO 2, dissolved O 2, PO 4 & heat fluxes of CO p. CO 2, dissolved O 2, PO 4 & heat fluxes of CO](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-20.jpg)
p. CO 2, dissolved O 2, PO 4 & heat fluxes of CO 2 and O 2 atmospheric transport atmospheric composition at observing stations
![Gruber et al. , 2001 Eliminate OBGC Model. Results seem Independent of Ocean physics Gruber et al. , 2001 Eliminate OBGC Model. Results seem Independent of Ocean physics](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-21.jpg)
Gruber et al. , 2001 Eliminate OBGC Model. Results seem Independent of Ocean physics Interpolar gradient getting better Equatorial data Would be nice.
![New data! New data!](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-22.jpg)
New data!
![Tohjima, et al. 2005 Tohjima, et al. 2005](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-23.jpg)
Tohjima, et al. 2005
![Tohjima, et al. 2005 Tohjima, et al. 2005](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-24.jpg)
Tohjima, et al. 2005
![Still more new data! Still more new data!](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-25.jpg)
Still more new data!
![Princeton & Scripps data Princeton & Scripps data](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-26.jpg)
Princeton & Scripps data
![Battle et al. 2006 Equatorial bulge is confirmed… Battle et al. 2006 Equatorial bulge is confirmed…](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-27.jpg)
Battle et al. 2006 Equatorial bulge is confirmed…
![Battle et al. 2006 Equatorial bulge is confirmed… and the interpolar gradient looks good Battle et al. 2006 Equatorial bulge is confirmed… and the interpolar gradient looks good](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-28.jpg)
Battle et al. 2006 Equatorial bulge is confirmed… and the interpolar gradient looks good too.
![…but it’s evolving Battle et al. , 2006 …but it’s evolving Battle et al. , 2006](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-29.jpg)
…but it’s evolving Battle et al. , 2006
![…and more modeling work …and more modeling work](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-30.jpg)
…and more modeling work
![Naegler et al. 2006 Naegler et al. 2006](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-31.jpg)
Naegler et al. 2006
![Naegler et al. 2006 Naegler et al. 2006](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-32.jpg)
Naegler et al. 2006
![Work in progress: Fresh ideas and fresh data… Work in progress: Fresh ideas and fresh data…](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-33.jpg)
Work in progress: Fresh ideas and fresh data…
![C. Nevison (NCAR) work in progress, with S. Doney & N. Mahawold • Model C. Nevison (NCAR) work in progress, with S. Doney & N. Mahawold • Model](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-34.jpg)
C. Nevison (NCAR) work in progress, with S. Doney & N. Mahawold • Model study with OBGCM & ATM • Seasonal cycle comparison • Annual mean gradient comparison • Emphasis on quantifying transport errors
![Ocean Ecosystem Model+OGCM (Doney) CASA land bio (also w/ fire) fossil fuel fluxes of Ocean Ecosystem Model+OGCM (Doney) CASA land bio (also w/ fire) fossil fuel fluxes of](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-35.jpg)
Ocean Ecosystem Model+OGCM (Doney) CASA land bio (also w/ fire) fossil fuel fluxes of CO 2 and O 2 MATCH (NCEP winds 1979 -2004) atmospheric composition at observing stations
![C. Nevison (NCAR) work in progress, with S. Doney & N. Mahawold • • C. Nevison (NCAR) work in progress, with S. Doney & N. Mahawold • •](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-36.jpg)
C. Nevison (NCAR) work in progress, with S. Doney & N. Mahawold • • • Ocean O 2 and CO 2 fluxes from WHOI ecosystem model. Set of Carbon/O 2 fluxes with IAV in ocean, land transport, all NCEP driven MATCH has stronger rectifier than ATMs previously used (TM 3, TM 2, GCTM)
![Seasonal results from WHOI/MATCH Nevison (in progress) Seasonal results from WHOI/MATCH Nevison (in progress)](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-37.jpg)
Seasonal results from WHOI/MATCH Nevison (in progress)
![Fidelity of seasonal cycles Nevison (in progress) Fidelity of seasonal cycles Nevison (in progress)](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-38.jpg)
Fidelity of seasonal cycles Nevison (in progress)
![Fidelity of seasonal cycles relative phasing mod/ obs Nevison (in progress) Fidelity of seasonal cycles relative phasing mod/ obs Nevison (in progress)](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-39.jpg)
Fidelity of seasonal cycles relative phasing mod/ obs Nevison (in progress)
![Fidelity of seasonal cycles Nevison (in progress) Fidelity of seasonal cycles Nevison (in progress)](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-40.jpg)
Fidelity of seasonal cycles Nevison (in progress)
![Fidelity of seasonal cycles Palmer Model skill depends on hemisphere Nevison (in progress) Fidelity of seasonal cycles Palmer Model skill depends on hemisphere Nevison (in progress)](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-41.jpg)
Fidelity of seasonal cycles Palmer Model skill depends on hemisphere Nevison (in progress)
![latitudinal gradients in WHOI/MATCH Battle data Gruber ’ 01/MATCH Gruber/TM 3 ATM uncertainties trump latitudinal gradients in WHOI/MATCH Battle data Gruber ’ 01/MATCH Gruber/TM 3 ATM uncertainties trump](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-42.jpg)
latitudinal gradients in WHOI/MATCH Battle data Gruber ’ 01/MATCH Gruber/TM 3 ATM uncertainties trump OBGCM fluxes again Nevison (in progress)
![Tohjima et al. (Tellus B, submitted) • Repeat carbon sink partitioning • Look at Tohjima et al. (Tellus B, submitted) • Repeat carbon sink partitioning • Look at](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-43.jpg)
Tohjima et al. (Tellus B, submitted) • Repeat carbon sink partitioning • Look at APO variability
![Atmosphere-ocean partition Tohjima et al. (submitted) Atmosphere-ocean partition Tohjima et al. (submitted)](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-44.jpg)
Atmosphere-ocean partition Tohjima et al. (submitted)
![Interannual variability in APO ~20 month smoothing Tohjima et al. (submitted) Interannual variability in APO ~20 month smoothing Tohjima et al. (submitted)](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-45.jpg)
Interannual variability in APO ~20 month smoothing Tohjima et al. (submitted)
![Variability reflects O 2 fluxes; not carbon. 12 Pg C/yr? Of course not. ~20 Variability reflects O 2 fluxes; not carbon. 12 Pg C/yr? Of course not. ~20](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-46.jpg)
Variability reflects O 2 fluxes; not carbon. 12 Pg C/yr? Of course not. ~20 month smoothing Tohjima et al. (submitted)
![Atmosphere-ocean partition APO variability Tohjima et al. (submitted) Atmosphere-ocean partition APO variability Tohjima et al. (submitted)](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-47.jpg)
Atmosphere-ocean partition APO variability Tohjima et al. (submitted)
![Further evolution of the interpolar gradient ~2 -year smoothing Further evolution of the interpolar gradient ~2 -year smoothing](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-48.jpg)
Further evolution of the interpolar gradient ~2 -year smoothing
![• Spatial structure of APO is genuinely timedependent ~2 -year smoothing • Spatial structure of APO is genuinely timedependent ~2 -year smoothing](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-49.jpg)
• Spatial structure of APO is genuinely timedependent ~2 -year smoothing
![• Spatial structure of APO is genuinely timedependent • Neighboring stations move independently • Spatial structure of APO is genuinely timedependent • Neighboring stations move independently](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-50.jpg)
• Spatial structure of APO is genuinely timedependent • Neighboring stations move independently ~2 -year smoothing
![• Spatial structure of APO is genuinely timedependent • Neighboring stations move independently • Spatial structure of APO is genuinely timedependent • Neighboring stations move independently](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-51.jpg)
• Spatial structure of APO is genuinely timedependent • Neighboring stations move independently • Watch out for end-effects ~2 -year smoothing
![Hamme, Keeling & Paplawsky (AGU, 2006) • Interhemispheric temporal variability • Mechanisms Hamme, Keeling & Paplawsky (AGU, 2006) • Interhemispheric temporal variability • Mechanisms](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-52.jpg)
Hamme, Keeling & Paplawsky (AGU, 2006) • Interhemispheric temporal variability • Mechanisms
![Work of Hamme et al. will be available upon publication (expected in late 2007) Work of Hamme et al. will be available upon publication (expected in late 2007)](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-53.jpg)
Work of Hamme et al. will be available upon publication (expected in late 2007)
![Broad conclusions: • APO reflects (too) many oceanic properties • Dataset is good but Broad conclusions: • APO reflects (too) many oceanic properties • Dataset is good but](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-54.jpg)
Broad conclusions: • APO reflects (too) many oceanic properties • Dataset is good but not great • Interpreting ocean models complicated by atmospheric transport
![More detailed conclusions • A model combo can get seasonality right, but still miss More detailed conclusions • A model combo can get seasonality right, but still miss](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-55.jpg)
More detailed conclusions • A model combo can get seasonality right, but still miss annual averages • Some indications that winter ventilation plays a big role • Apparent global signal of NAM • May be an El Niño signal too
![O 2 and CO 2 fluxes are related, but not intimately. The degree of O 2 and CO 2 fluxes are related, but not intimately. The degree of](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/976584e05afec8c286e0d9188cee6993/image-56.jpg)
O 2 and CO 2 fluxes are related, but not intimately. The degree of linkage depends on temporal and spatial scale.
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