Foresight Tools Focus on Scenarios for 3 Horizons

Foresight Tools & Focus on Scenarios for 3 Horizons 2020 - 2025 - 2035 - & 2050 i. e. 5; 15; 30 years Adjunct Professor Jack E. Smith, CEO TFCI Canada Inc. & Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa jesmith@telfer. uottawa. ca.

Face the Future “The only relevant discussions about the future are those where we succeed in shifting the question from whether something will happen to what would we do if it did happen. ” Arie de Geus, Principal in Royal Dutch Shell Group Planning Architect of Energy Futures Scenarios Why? Because change is constant

30 Years Ago – 1989……. • USSR, Cold War, Berlin Wall ready to fall , but a, most nobody ( except young Gemans) believes it could happpen; • Darpa [- Net – NSF; no www ; no internt; no; search engines ; no Google no Amazon, • Human Genome Project envisioned by 2000. . • New words for science: nano; cyberspace; digital; sustainability • Ecological action focus: leaded gas; CFCs acid rain • First generation ( 1 G = analog) cell phones not smart; but mobile & wirekllesssl; gendeai on 0 )_atuiiin

What is Foresight? A set of strategic tools that support government and industry decisions with adequate lead time for societal preparation and strategic response. Key Attributes • Anticipates multiple, plausible futures – i. e. neither prediction nor forecasting of probabilities • 5 – 25 year time horizon- usual is 10 -15 • A rehearsal for potential but contingent futures • Accommodates uncertainty & diversity • Highlights emerging opportunities & threats

European Foresight Definitions European Commission FORESIGHT is a participative approach to creating shared long-term visions to inform short-term decision-making processes. http: //www. foresightnetwork. eu/index. php? option=com_content&task=view&id=13&Itemid= 52 Fore. Learn Future oriented thinking is vital for any forward planning or policy activity to be able to meet future challenges proactively. Foresight enhances such thinking by gathering anticipatory intelligence from a wide range of knowledge sources in a systematic 5 way and linking it to today's decision making.

Public Foresight Applications • Energy & Environment Scenarios – Royal Dutch Shell, Industry Canada, Natural Resources Canada, British Petroleum, International Energy Agency, World Business Council Sustainable Development; APEC CTF; • Investment in Next Generation Technologies: Finland, Germany, France, Ireland, Japan, Korea, ( TFCI – Canada ) • Complex Multi-Sectoral Policy Issues – e. g. infectious diseases, obesity & health; coastal zones, convergent technologies, next economic paradigm; UK Foresight, UNESCO; European Community, Policy Horizons Canada, Health Canada; APEC CTF • Global Security & Asymmetric Threats – US National Intelligence Council; Department Homeland Security, NATO, Defence R&D Canada – Public Safety Canada Centre for Security Science, Canadian Food Inspection Agency;

Global Foresight Sources USA • Europe- Asia US National Intelligence Council (NIC) ; Assoc of Professional Futurists (APF) • APEC CTF; ASEA N • UNESCO & UNIDO • Proteus USA - Global Futures Forum • EC-IPTS; EFMN; FTA; For. ERA • Institute for Global Futures, Institute for the Future; Alternative Futures Institute • UK Foresight, Horizon Scan & Ministry Of Defence UNIVERSITY OF MANCHESTER • Millennium Project – ACUNU ( Global Council and Network) • Japanese Delphi; Finnsight; Germany Futur • RAND, Global Business • Shaping Tomorrow - •

Foresight Outcomes & Benefits Activates: early-warning radar Prepares: for change Engages: multiple stakeholders Educates: leaders & public Identifies: critical S&T Removes: current constraints Better decisions, more robust policy, targeted research and insightful analysis

Foresight Helps Decision-makers By. . § Revealing prospective new issues, challenges-threats, stakeholders, or shifts in alignments of influential players; § Identifying needs for new skills, knowledge and capabilities; § Highlighting new, weak signals that can become pivotal in the future, and potentially disruptive surprises, technologies; § Demonstrating current regulatory weaknesses – zones where failure to prepare can bring severe consequences; § Can be used to determine S&T, R&D priorities, strategic technology investment domains and critical sectors; § Exposing the limits of current policies, gaps that should be filled; § Delivering intelligence on emerging business and market opportunities, new foreign strengths and players; § Providing alerts about threats, complex situations and organizational vulnerabilities – allowing time to adapt 1 nm

Manchester Foresight Framework 10

Top 10 Foresight Tools • • • Environmental Scanning Delphi Probing Scenario Planning Technology – Innovation Mapping Technology Road-Mapping Expert Technical Panels Web Virtual Conferences FOR-CI-BA: Combining Foresight & Competitive Technical Intelligence & Business Analytics Computerized Modelling and Dynamic Simulation Integral Systemic Futures

Brockman’s Big Challenges: The Next 50 Years 1. Cybersphere: information beams, portable teleconnection & ubiquitous smart networks; Singularity dynamics 2. Bio-engineering & bio-robotics, astro-biology, personal genomics & embryo simulation, artificial life models; xeno transplantation 3. Quantum math & computing, teleportation, computational and emergent complexity; 4. Search for ETI and biophilic universes; 5. Neuro-sentience/AI & convergent cognition, computational pharmacology, neuro-regeneration 6. Sub-terranean thermophilogy & Triphibious flexible transport 7. Nano-structural products and processes sensors, materials, fabrication and molecular tailoring

Foresight Development Process Define Project Topic Review Current Situation Identify Key Lenses Answer Challenge Questions Identify Change Drivers Select Critical Drivers Identify Scenarios Populate Each Scenario Backcast to Present Synthesis & Recommendations

Foresight To Strategy Process Foresight Insights & Learning Review Backcast for Leverage Points Identify Strategic Goals, Problems Address Challenge Questions, e. g why us? Prospective Roles & Solutions Engage Stakeholders Formulate Robust Strategies ( How) Make Choices, Commit to Actions Success & Performance Measures Revisit Strategies, Goals

Identifying Robust Strategies Today rio X a n ce S d car d l i W rio A a n e c S Scenario B Scen ario C Wild card Sce nari o. Y Area of Plausible Futures Robust Strategies and Breakthrough Actions How do we mobilize, inspire and align our talents and assets to create the envisaged opportunities and realize the innovations necessary? Today Tomorrow

Environmental Scan: STEEP Map Source European Commission FTA Seville 2008 1. Society & Culture 2. Science & Technology Social Norms, Education, Information & Knowledge Society Science Culture & Discoveries Technology Progress Equity, Ethical, Moral & Legal Issues Innovative, Transformative Applications & Products New and Renewable Sources Non Renewable Energy Alternatives (e. g. H 2, nukes) 4. Ecology-Economy State of Global Finance, Trade, Debt and Related Globalization Issues BRIC Rapid Development Economies Climate Change, Global Warming = sustainable ecology, new economy 5. Geo-Politics & Security East-West, North-South Issues, Governance, Health of Democracy, Failed States Global, Cyber Terrorism & Nuclear & Bio WMD 3. Energy Current Energy Use, Peak Oil , Efficiency & Security Demographics, Urbanization, Population Health & Migration Water, Food and Resource Shortages, Disasters

Foresight Trends Discernible gradual patterns that are slowly but pervasively causing change e. g. population aging; decline in state sovereignty; complexity of military options; new world-order: politico-military alliances; Islam-West cultural gaps; space and cyber conflicts; more nuclear equipped nations; more humanitarian demands; inter-state migration; failing states proliferation; shift to digital technology. ````Trends impact all scenarios. These are the broad forces behind change, Most stakeholders are relatively powerless to affect the trend so trends tend to endure as influential shapers for at least 3 – 5 years until succeeded by others.

e. g. Some Macro Shaping Trends For each – describe two-three implications for change in your world 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. Demographic, wealth shifts in West & world, BRICs-NICs – after boomers; Ambient Intelligence; Ai & Internet of Things – toward the Singularity Global Anxiety – from Global Warming-Climate Change to Terrorism Miniaturization , Automation (Robotics) of Hardware , Machines Socialization of Peer-to-Peer Power in Software Networks Globalization of Capital, Terror , Disease, Eco-Environment Anti-globalization of Biodiversity, Culture, Sustainability De-Carbonization & Efficiency/Renewables for Energy Harmonization - Standardization for Trade Convergence of Info-Nano-Bio-Cogno Science Intensification, Differentiation, of Wealth Transformation of Infrastructure Systems Acceleration of Knowledge Economy Proliferation of Surveillance - Security Urbanization-Migration, Multi-Culturalism of Populations Virtualization, Digitization & Integration of: Business-Professions, Production, Communications, Entertainment, Education 17. Automation; Propagation; of vehicles & drones for transport & deliveries

e. g. Eco. Trend : Shifts in Environmental Determinants • Hydrogen production from algae-bacteria; solar PV; • Conflicts over water and emerging nano filtration • Global environmental management corporations • Nuclear power or oil FOR power • Arable land becomes salty, while progress is made on saline farming

Foresight Critical Drivers Factors and uncertainties that create or drive change that may be adapted by or strongly impact stakeholders, sometimes rapidly e. g. dynamics pushing global society and security; political geometry; climate policies and resource practices; major S&T developments and their societal impacts; new international agreements and strategic S&T investments; new versions of enabling technologies and significant S&T breakthroughs. These areas that change from year to year and may be amenable to stakeholder actions and strategic choices by way of investments, new alignments, infrastructure, R&D, innovations. Which axes are most uncertain? i. e. by being both important and by having the most divergent polarities.

e. g. Environmental Crises • Warnings of a global fisheries collapse (by 2050) of all species if fishing continues at its current pace. ” – Achim Steiner U. N. Environment Program 2006; • Ground-based astronomy may become impossible by 2050 because of pollution and climate change. ” – Prof. Gerry Gilmore 2006; • World wide, forests will continue to shrink at a rate of 1 soccer pitch every 2 seconds • Polar ice cap appears to be melting at a rate of Lake Superior/year

e. g. Global Demographics • 2011: 7. 0 B ++++ • 2050: 9. 2 B OR ? ? • Declining birth rates in west and newly industrialized world; • Zero population growth birth rates in North America; less in some European nations • Age extension, more centurions • urban dwellers out number rural dwellers

e. g. Global Disease Key Challenges: • Water, Alzheimer’s , Obesity Effects • HIV/AIDS; climate impacts and habitat displacements • Virus cross-over • Bio-terror agents are zoonotic • Since 1985, 38 new human pathogens have emerged • 1, 400 pathogens cause human disease

Shocks & Wild Cards High impact, low probability events and situations that alter the fundamentals, create new infrastructure demands and usually shift societal priorities. e. g. Gulf Stream shift; nuclear bomb; fusion power; major earthquakes-tsunamis, infectious global pandemic; fertility decline; cyber collapse; human ageing breakthrough; solar flare, asteroid impacts; financial collapse; sustained deflation; autonomous computers These are the unpredictable but life altering events and situations that create new challenges and opportunities that most stakeholders have not considered or prepared for. What would be 2 -3 plausible shocks or topic relevant wild cards?

Global Futures Forum Shocks • Relative impact and likelihood out to 15 years 2 High 3 Security / Defense Implication Loss of U. S. control of the commons 4 5 Nuclear event Pandemic Large scale cyber attack 4 Disruption of oil infrastructure Loss of confidence In Do. D capabilities Categories of trends Collapse of strategic state Conflict Demographics Economy Medium Energy & Environment = Culture/Identity Science & Technology = High Medium Source; US Dept of Defence Probability 3

Part 2: Scenario Futures 26

Foresight Development Process Define Project Topic Review Current Situation Identify Key Lenses Answer Challenge Questions Identify Change Drivers Select Critical Drivers Identify Scenarios Populate Each Scenario Backcast to Present Synthesis & Recommendations

Benefits of Collaboration • • Reveal intelligence and knowledge gaps Build alliances to leverage capabilities Leverage complimentary competencies Scope impact horizons and anticipate disruptive technologies • Anticipate ongoing Program Review • Identify new clients and industry partners • Plan for S&T capacity adjustments 28

7 Scenario Purposes 1. Tracking emergence & prospective impacts of influential trends & technologies 2. Informing R&D planners, policy makers 3. Engaging, coalescing strategic thinking 4. Elucidation of unseen connections, new insights 5. Evaluating & comparing a range of scenarios to assess robustness of technologies 6. Facilitating long term R&D and strategic investments 7. Imagining future knowledge & skills needs, job shifts 29

Scenario Planning Rigorous Approach For – Managing uncertainties surrounding investment choices – Exploring alternative environments, multiple futures – Focusing on plausible rather than predicted outcomes – Identifying robust problem-solving, adaptive strategies – testing which will work “No Matter How The Future Unfolds”: readiness what if and how would we …… Typically Chosen When – Ambiguity in the operating environment is high – Pace of change and degree of turmoil is accelerating – Planning horizon stretches out to 10 years or more – Stakeholders are able to manage complex, contingent situations and formulate strategies – These strategies are aimed at preparedness and identifying opportunity within the accepted uncertainty represented by the divergence of the scenarios

Scenario Basics Stories With Implications • • • Rich context, relevant to stakeholders Provocative diversity = real alternatives Relate to perceived needs & opportunities Designate some edges – choices, boundaries Consider also the opposites - + and - Critical Parameters • • • 4 -7 is best, > 10 confuses + Plots are useful when transparent, Scenarios should be consistently structured, concise Focus is to engage key stakeholders Engage in: what if rather than whether things will occur Challenges-evidence tests may be useful between scenarios Evocative names help recognition & thematic links

“Event Horizon” Public Anxiety: HIGH (stressed) Public suspicious of alternatives D 1 Everything out-of-control A “Event Horizon” Level of Animal Optimization: LOW (totally MAD) Extreme regulation, industry collapse D 2 Current Situation E F B C Public Anxiety: LOW (relaxed) Level of Animal Optimization: HIGH (many alternatives to MAD) Healthy & Secure World

Animal Health Scenarios - A Scenario (A) Level of Animal Optimization: LOW (totally MAD) Public Axiety: HIGH (stressed) • Low levels of trust among all stakeholders • Fear of disclosure by producers • Short-term fixes, sacrificial lambs • Communications is PR-driven; spin vs. science • Constant crisis management; public unrest • Secrecy & lack of transparency • Industry bailouts vs. investment in alternatives • Lack of leadership & responsibility • Agri-industry drops best practices – poor ROI • Unstable animal & public health infrastructures

Animal Health Scenarios - B • Governments in total control – ‘Big Brother’/’Nanny Society’ • Emphasis on ‘zero-risk’ food supply • Multi-national producers move off-shore Level of Animal Optimization: LOW (totally MAD) • Urban media demands government action • Dissolution of stakeholder partnerships • Low-intensity agriculture emerges in N. America • Trade protectionism among G 8 competitors • MAD alternatives are not developed Scenario (B) Public Anxiety: LOW (relaxed)

Animal Health Scenarios - C Public Anxiety: HIGH (stressed) • No trust of the food system or government • Very rapid adoption of new technologies • Disconnect between public and science • Belief that industry decisions driven by economics • Cherry-picking evidence to suit outcomes • Media is perceived as enemy by industry & govt. – fanning public fear • Science education not highly valued • Communications driven by industry & govt. – “spin” • Public feels loss of control Scenario (C) Level of Animal Optimization: HIGH (many alternatives to MAD)

Animal Health Scenarios - D • Transparency (real & perceived) • Effective & consistent communications channels • Good infrastructure for fast crisis management • Spectrum of ‘smart’ applications (eg bio-sensors) • Convergence of human and animal health • Buy-in to concept of adaptive risk management • International collaboration & containment • Strong relations among all stakeholders • Agri-industry self-regulates & takes leadership role • Strategic investment & adoption of technology Public Anxiety: LOW (relaxed) Level of Animal Optimization: HIGH (many alternatives to MAD) Scenario (D)

Animal Health Scenario Strategies I “Failure” Scenario “Event Horizon” Public Anxiety: HIGH (stressed) Current Situation • Global network for epi-predictive modeling Level of Animal Optimization: HIGH (many alternatives to MAD) • Technology-enabled mini-MAD adopted locally • Global Knowledge Web set up & funded by G 8 – includes : Public Health (convergence) • IT developed and installed by private sector • Incentives to share data & report disease • International expert teams – funded on proactive research “Optimum” Scenario

Animal Health Scenario Strategies IIeduce Public Anxiety • New animal products are Scenario (A) “Event Horizon” Public Anxiety: HIGH (stressed) Current Situation Public Anxiety: LOW (relaxed) linked to public health • Tracking technologies become ubiquitous • Consumers empowered to make informed decisions • New media used for risk communications • World Conference – global food safety • Animal rights organizations involved in solutions • Public trust building – listening, transparency “Optimum” Scenario

Applied Foresight: “MAD to AHO” • Foresight >> a new paradigm for managing outbreaks; • Shift from automatic mass animal disposal - MAD to risk management and animal health optimization – AHO; • Shared decisions with stakeholders = early action; • Convergence of animal and public health issues, challenges, S&T agendas; • Wider use of S&T recognized; • Stewardship and public communications are critical • Clear value of early warning-alertspreparedness NRC-CFIA Canada-US Animal Health Foresight 39

Scenario Building ASEAN Indonesia Food BEST 1. Implementation of Food Act No. 18, 2012 properly 2. Infractructure facilities to go to the field (improve the efficiency of the agriculture) 3. Land consolidation (small land don’t want to integrate with others, for a bigger land to cultivate to apply the machine) 4. Legal Farmer Association (better bargaining power to compete with the market) 5. Improve awareness /knowledge of the people (ASEAN, open markets, people awareness to have good food ) WORSE 1. Unemployment will be increased (increase the wage, using automatic machines) 2. Policy (1, 000 SMEs from thailand, Indonesia don’t have a right policy, lack coordiation btw mins 3. Lack of education 4. Government regulation have to be changed (Bank policy how to help 17 millions SMEs in Food sector, because of indonesian food are not accepted in EU markets) 5. Environmental Declination 40

Education • Climate impact : Easy Sailing (Prefer Scenario) (high) Environmental quality / Climate A: Riding the Waves (low) B: Rising Sea Storming Weather/ Turbulance Production input • Highly Volatile, labor uncertainty, shortage of water, raw material, land, energy C: Storm is Coming

A: Riding the Waves (high) Education • Climate impact : Easy Sailing (Prefer Scenario) Environmental quality / Climate - Natural disaster - Lack of awareness of farmers on Post. Harvest losses -environmental factors are worsening - Infrastructure investment anticipate climate impact - production costs low, but raising - vulnerable to climate (low) B: Rising Sea Storming Weather/ Turbulance Production input • Highly Volatile, labor uncertainty, shortage of water, raw material, land, energy C: Storm is Coming

Education • Climate impact : Easy Sailing (Prefer Scenario) (high) Environmental quality / Climate A: Riding the Waves (low) B: Rising Sea Storming Weather/ Turbulance - Climate Change Impact high - Combine social economic and environmental uncertainty high - Lack of coordination btw institutions - Competing policy and institution agenda -Conflicted Gov. Production input • Highly Volatile, labor uncertainty, shortage of water, raw material, land, energy C: Storm is Coming

Education • Climate impact : Easy Sailing (Prefer Scenario) (high) Environmental quality / Climate A: Riding the Waves (low) B: Rising Sea Storming Weather/ Turbulance Production input • Highly Volatile, labor uncertainty, shortage of water, raw material, land, energy - Social riot - Gap of BOP, widen - (without environmental pressure) - (suprising impact) - Subsidy Policy on Chemical Fertilizer, Pesticides - flexibility equal/ low C: Storm is Coming

Education • Climate impact -Stable production -Low anxiety (people happy) - (able to cope with climate impact) - government knows best (take care people) -Strong government support (for food production, climate change readiness, implement of Food Act No. 18/ 2012) : Easy Sailing (Prefer Scenario) (high) Environmental quality / Climate A: Riding the Waves (low) B: Rising Sea Storming Weather/ Turbulance Production input • Highly Volatile, labor uncertainty, shortage of water, raw material, land, energy C: Storm is Coming

A: Riding the Waves (high) Education • Climate impact -Stable production -Low anxiety (people happy) - (able to cope with climate impact) - government knows best (take care people) -Strong government support (for food production, climate change readiness, implement of Food Act No. 18/ 2012) : Easy Sailing (Prefer Scenario) Environmental quality / Climate - Natural disaster - Lack of awareness of farmers on Post. Harvest losses -environmental factors are worsening - Infrastructure investment anticipate climate impact - production costs low, but raising - vulnerable to climate (low) B: Rising Sea Storming Weather/ Turbulance - Climate Change Impact high - Combine social economic and environmental uncertainty high - Lack of coordination btw institutions - Competing policy and institution agenda -Conflicted Gov. Production input • Highly Volatile, labor uncertainty, shortage of water, raw material, land, energy - Social riot - Gap of BOP, widen - (without environmental pressure) - (suprising impact) - Subsidy Policy on Chemical Fertilizer, Pesticides - flexibility equal/ low C: Storm is Coming

(high) A: Riding the Waves Preferred Situation 2020 Indonesia Situation 2013 Indonesia Situation 2020 BAU -Stable production -Low anxiety (people happy) - (able to cope with climate impact) - government knows best (take care people) -Strong government support (for food production, climate change readiness, implement of Food Act No. 18/ 2012) : Easy Sailing (Prefer Scenario) Environmental quality / Climate - Natural disaster - Lack of awareness of farmers on Post. Harvest losses -environmental factors are worsening - Infrastructure investment anticipate climate impact - production costs low, but raising - vulnerable to climate (low) B: Rising Sea Storming Weather/ Turbulance - Climate Change Impact high - Combine social economic and environmental uncertainty high - Lack of coordination btw institutions - Competing policy and institution agenda -Conflicted Gov. Production input • Highly Volatile, labor uncertainty, shortage of water, raw material, land, energy - Social riot - Gap of BOP, widen - (without environmental pressure) - (suprising impact) - Subsidy Policy on Chemical Fertilizer, Pesticides - flexibility equal/ low C: Storm is Coming

A: Riding the Waves (high) Education • Climate impact -Stable production -Low anxiety (people happy) - (able to cope with climate impact) - government knows best (take care people) -Strong government support (for food production, climate change readiness, implement of Food Act No. 18/ 2012) : Easy Sailing (Prefer Scenario) Environmental quality / Climate - Natural disaster - Lack of awareness of farmers on Post. Harvest losses -environmental factors are worsening - Infrastructure investment anticipate climate impact - production costs low, but raising - vulnerable to climate B: Rising Sea Storming Weather/ Turbulance ASEAN Situation 2020 BAU ASEAN Situation 2013 (low) - Climate Change Impact high - Combine social economic and environmental uncertainty high - Lack of coordination btw institutions - Competing policy and institution agenda -Conflicted Gov. Production input • Highly Volatile, labor uncertainty, shortage of water, raw material, land, energy - Social riot - Gap of BOP, widen - (without environmental pressure) - (suprising impact) - Subsidy Policy on Chemical Fertilizer, Pesticides - flexibility equal/ low C: Storm is Coming

(high) A: Riding the Waves Education • Climate impact Preferred Situation 2020 Indonesia Situation 2013 Indonesia Situation 2020 BAU -Stable production -Low anxiety (people happy) - (able to cope with climate impact) - government knows best (take care people) -Strong government support (for food production, climate change readiness, implement of Food Act No. 18/ 2012) : Easy Sailing (Prefer Scenario) Environmental quality / Climate - Natural disaster - Lack of awareness of farmers on Post. Harvest losses -environmental factors are worsening - Infrastructure investment anticipate climate impact - production costs low, but raising - vulnerable to climate B: Rising Sea Storming Weather/ Turbulance ASEAN Situation 2020 BAU ASEAN Situation 2013 (low) - Climate Change Impact high - Combine social economic and environmental uncertainty high - Lack of coordination btw institutions - Competing policy and institution agenda -Conflicted Gov. Production input • Highly Volatile, labor uncertainty, shortage of water, raw material, land, energy - Social riot - Gap of BOP, widen - (without environmental pressure) - (suprising impact) - Subsidy Policy on Chemical Fertilizer, Pesticides - flexibility equal/ low C: Storm is Coming

(high) A: Riding the Waves Education • Climate impact Preferred Situation 2020 Indonesia Situation 2013 Indonesia Situation 2020 BAU -Stable production -Low anxiety (people happy) - (able to cope with climate impact) - government knows best (take care people) -Strong government support (for food production, climate change readiness, implement of Food Act No. 18/ 2012) : Easy Sailing (Prefer Scenario) Environmental quality / Climate - Natural disaster - Lack of awareness of farmers on Post. Harvest losses -environmental factors are worsening - Infrastructure investment anticipate climate impact - production costs low, but raising - vulnerable to climate B: Rising Sea Storming Weather/ Turbulance ASEAN Situation 2020 BAU ASEAN Situation 2013 (low) - Climate Change Impact high - Combine social economic and environmental uncertainty high - Lack of coordination btw institutions - Competing policy and institution agenda -Conflicted Gov. Production input • Highly Volatile, labor uncertainty, shortage of water, raw material, land, energy - Social riot - Gap of BOP, widen - (without environmental pressure) - (suprising impact) - Subsidy Policy on Chemical Fertilizer, Pesticides - flexibility equal/ low C: Storm is Coming

Pathways To - Vietnam Food Futures Scenario A : Bright Future B: Clean but Cloudy A Sustainability Diversity In Investment Emphasis on renewable energy Agriculture infrastructure, high yield. Multifunction use of water resource. Cooperatives. B Inclusive innovation (for Bottom of the Pyramid) Gov. loans to send the students to study and come back to their locality. Grass roots innovation. Technology transfer. Alternative crops, more locally beneficial and unique crops for domestic income. IT, e. g. cell phones for sharing market information. High value added, special food products to replace restaurant food products. C : Green is Mean D : Risky Farmers Shift to low carbon society creates some barriers to developing country. Trade barriers. Gov invest a lot of money on infrastructure, disaster relief and R&D Sustainability can be happen by infrastructure improvement. Green products expensive, sustainability is jeopardize. Energy cost escalates. Pollution is high Difficult for sustainability perspective, not too much on climate change. Increase urbanization rate, loss of agriculture land, difficult economy. Difficult to have inclusive innovation, when survival is the first priority. How can inclusive innovation, when the government invests in infrastructure (e. g. high ways, irrigations). State spending too much on climate change is so high, so that there is no money for the farmers to get out of the vulnerability cycle. Difficult for investor and farmers to innovate. Inclusive innovation is difficult.

Steady Sailing Government Involvement (high) in Food System - Adaptation / mitigation technology - Easy international market - flow in from outside) Thailand - Good distribution system Situation - Subsidy / raw material price 2013 - Slow adaptation to change - Low productivity, low global reach - Food for Bo. P regulated ? ? ? Sinking Slowly - Pests and diseases outbreak - Flood /drought / disasters - Food safety and standard - Shortage of food supply - Fluctuation of investment - High regulation demands - Public Private Community Partnerships (PPCP) Growth Volatility of Production and Input • Predictable/regular/stagnant • Innovation low/costly • cost per unit is increasing ASEAN - Regional commodities Situation 2013 competition - Competition/Demand : low - Agriculture productivity low - Low innovation - Labor shortage due to low wages - No youth opportunity Government Knows Best ? • Global economy rebound • Price is rising, volatile • Uncertainty of resources availability • Climate Change impact - Unpredictable productivity - Advanced production technologies - High input (unpredictable energy prices) - Competition between ‘Foods and Fuels’ - Sudden rise in external demands - Food innovation is high (low) Big winner / Big Loser

A: Bright Future 2020 Horizon #3 (high) B: Clean but Cloudy Market conditions High demand, low risk, • R&D on technology. stable, • Fair assess to credit for farmers • Increase High Yield Crops. diversity • Increasing the efficiency (e. g. use 100% of Biomass). • Micro cradle to cradle (C 2 C) community – exchange high demand, product, or service, information, avoid to transport raw knowledgeabl materials) • Micro sustainable community: innovation, mindset. To solve e consumer almost problem, no environmental problem, no waste, close system. Prefer • Make the most of what we have. • More education of the people in the country, work together VN with commitment for their products. 2020 • Organize and support this kind of model, agriculture. • Government give loans, zero interests, some support. • Attract people in agricultural university. • Cooperative • Coordination among ministries, Ministry of Science, Agriculture, Commerce and Trade Stability, more transparent and consistence of law, policy, and enforcement VN VN 2020 ? • Climate change hit hard • Infrastructure very vulnerable • loan difficult to obtain • Gov spend a lot of money on infrastructure and R&D • Low carbon society, green products Climate and other constraints Water Stability, VN • 2020? high climate impact, frequent disaster and higher cost of insurance • Low stability of market Today • Good environment , not much 2013 • Over stock, over supply destruction, • Economy crisis • Industry have no money • Volatility of energy price • product is green High volatility • Boom and bust • adaptation capacity low • Commercial deficit (high import and low export) market, high • Investment is drain (get out of the sector) • innovation is lower (fight for survival) • Protection forces growth risk, weak • agriculture is shrink • Bank survive, firms take the risk • Massive movement to the city, industrial market • Volubility protect by states VN sectors • State officers survive conditions 2020 • pollution is higher • Firms is at risk (lack of finance) • Small farmers in risk, in volatile market ? (low) C: Green is Mean (very tough

Three Horizons For-e Seeing Contingent Future Pathways deeper, further and broader - technically, socially, ecologically and strategically; THREE HORIZONS METHODOLOGY Three Horizons is an established technique to organizing how we approach and deal with uncertainty. It first guides us how to position our organizations in the tides of change, and then enables us, in a structured manner, to think about what could be possible at the edge of a determined future time (third) horizon. Because it is premised upon leaping over the second and into the third horizon from the first, it is designed to give substance to our aspirations, and then move back into the second horizon, where we are encouraged to think in a forward, positive way, and to consider practical means and opportunities i. e. pathways that allow us to take steps in the context of prevailing uncertainty and risk. 54

Horizon 1. 2013 -2015 Horizon 1 is the space of the imminent future - already somewhat determined by our present readiness, resource commitments and institutional capacities to make adjustments etc. It extends from tomorrow to at least two years ahead, but not usually more than five years. Many organizations see the first Horizon as a place to seed new capacities, test strategies and identify present barriers or articulate problems which need to be resolved to be able to move to the next horizons. 55

Horizon 3 2020 -2025 Horizon 3 is the world of what if…what could be… and how we might recognize and realize opportunities. It is where powerful and compelling visions are described so they can enable leaders to break the inertia and fear of change that pervades most organizations. By enabling many stakeholders to collaborate on shaping the inputs to the third Horizon, the process has already begun to proactively build the future of any organization versus being reactive or "missing the boat" as a familiar popular phrase suggests. 56

Horizon 2. 2016 -2019 Horizon 2 is the space where change is fully engaged and one's assets are actively shifting to be able to realize opportunities and to adjust to new pressures. Here it is desirable and usually possible to both forecast by examining the implications of trends and drivers of change; and backcast by rigorously asking what would have been required to create the conditions for the aspirations and vision of Horizon 3 to be realized 57

SCENARIOS: 7 KEY POINTS 1. Stories that we can relate to – about learning, preparedness 2. Openness and opening minds 3. Vehicle for strategy 4. Stakeholder participation - diversity of views 5. Not just about the future - multiple applications / purposes 6. Multiple ways to frame or structure 7. Ambiguity, uncertainty

Foresight Success Factors • Focus on a clearly identified client • Clear link between foresight and today’s mid term policy agenda (3 -5 years) • Direct links to senior policy makers • Clear communication strategy • Integration of stakeholders in programs • Provides methodologies-skills that are not always or normally used in other departments • Academic receptor- to train and develop skills