UNIEPRO Foresight Tools The Delphi Technique MONITORING Technology

UNIEPRO Foresight Tools The Delphi Technique

MONITORING Technology Foresight Analysis of Occupational Impact THEMATIC ANTENNA RECOMMENDATIONS MONITORING UNIEPRO

UNIEPRO Basic Concepts – What is it? The Delphi method was developed by Olaf Helmes in the sixties. It consists of asking a group of experts – individually and by means of pre-designed questionnaires – about the future trends of a certain critical factor, system or part of one. Weaver (1971) states that “Delphi operates on the principle that several heads are better than one in making subjective conjectures about the future. . . and that experts will make conjectures based upon rational judgement rather than merely guessing”. For Wright, Lawrence and Collopy (1996), the Delphi technique is used in judgement and forecasting situations, in which conventional model-based statistical methods are not feasible, because of the lack of appropriate historical, economic and technical data and information.

UNIEPRO Basic Concepts – Special Features The Delphi technique has four basic features: anonymity, interaction, information sharing and statistical control of responses provided. This “isolation” is important as it makes it possible to obtain the opinion of each expert rather than the opinions that stem from group discussions. This procedure also gives individual group members the opportunity to express themselves without the interference of undue “social pressures”, such as the influence of a majority opinion or of a distinguished expert. In theory, this enables each member of the group of experts to analyse ideas on the sole basis of merit (Rowe and Wright, 1999).

UNIEPRO Basic Concepts – Broad Stages The Delphi technique can be divided into three phases. During the first phase, the scope of the study and its time frame are determined, and the first questionnaire is produced (closed questions), bearing in mind that Delphi studies are usually conducted in two rounds. The second phase involves the selection of experts. In phase three, the questionnaires are distributed, together with a letter of presentation describing the objectives of the study and the steps and rules governing the implementation of the information-gathering process.

UNIEPRO Basic Concepts – Designing a Questionnaire When designing questionnaires, certain essential characteristics should be considered: questions should be precise, quantifiable and independent. A Delphi questionnaire must be very well designed and its questions should be clear and provide the experts with enough information to allow them to predict future events. These observations show that the validity of a Delphi questionnaire depends on the nature and selection of the panel of experts and on the questions addressed. Questions can include the historical trends of the critical factors, as well as possible scenarios. Throughout the entire Delphi process, care must be taken to set up systems to prevent the polarization of the study.

UNIEPRO Basic Concepts – Closed Questionnaires In one form of Delphi questionnaire, closed and contextualized questions are set and the experts are polled about the likelihood of occurrence of a specific variable, within a specified period of time. These variables may be technological, political, social, economic, environmental, etc. In the second round of questions, the experts are provided with a comparative chart containing the values they assigned as well as the value percentage allocated to each item by the group. At this point, the experts are invited to reflect upon the values assigned and should they wish to, to modify the values they had previously allocated. If necessary, further rounds of questions are conducted and each expert is invited to comment on the diverging viewpoints, until a relative consensus of opinions is reached.

UNIEPRO Basic Concepts – The Experts The Delphi technique includes two working groups. One of them is a group of experts, whose objective is to produce estimates, by means of a logical reasoning process, which will be compared, corrected and complemented at regular stimulation stages, by using the responses obtained in successive questionnaires (Grumbach, 1997). The group of experts is composed of people who are known for their in-depth knowledge of part of the system being explored, superficial knowledge of other parts of the system and great interest in participating in these studies. According to Godet (1997), experts should be selected on the basis of their capacity to predict the future. Members of the group of experts can report on how familiar they are with the part of the system being explored whenever a specific question is asked about it.

UNIEPRO Basic Concepts – The Experts These experts should not be expected to merely have a superficial grasp of the subjects involved. The selection should focus mainly on people’s familiarity with the issues rather than on their academic qualifications or the positions they hold. For Grumbach and Marcial (2000), the group of experts should comply with the following characteristics: they should be honestly motivated, conduct realistic evaluations and have a solid level of knowledge. The group of experts are expected to hold non-polarized views, display a low dispersion of opinions and be precise. In Delphi studies that include a large number of experts, it is necessary to determine the extent of their knowledge of the specific issue or subject. In general, a knowledge hierarchy is established for the matter under consideration, using algebraic values.

UNIEPRO Basic Concepts – The Experts Levels are ranked as: High: This level includes all of the experts with specialist knowledge of the issue or subject. Medium: This level includes all of the experts with a solid knowledge of the issue, but who are not specialists. Low: This level includes all of the experts who are familiar with the subject from reading specialized literature. Generally, most studies in which this technique is used involve a range of 15 to 20 experts, as a larger number of experts can generate a great many items and ideas, which makes contextualization difficult (Ludwig, 1997).

UNIEPRO Ideal Number of Experts

UNIEPRO Basic Concepts – The Experts When the study is carried out with a limited number of experts, the monitoring team should look for people with a great deal of knowledge and experience in the issues addressed. The selection of the experts who will take part in a foresight study must be considered a key issue. The aim of the monitor or analysis team is to lead the evaluation of the opinions and judgements elicited from the experts. This group conducts an analytical study of these opinions, endeavouring not to alter or modify them in any way, produces a summary of the conclusions and presents the work in its final format.

UNIEPRO Advantages People across an extensive geographical area can take part, avoiding the drawbacks of methods that involve the formation of committees (Campbell & Hitchin, 1968). The influence of status and powerful personalities among the experts invited to take part is eliminated (Cyphert & Gant, 1970). A final consensus is obtained, as a result of the various rounds of questions. Information is obtained about the future evolution of the issue being explored, through an analysis of current events, trends and significant discontinuities. The method can be used in different fields of knowledge (economics, politics, technology and social science). The confidential nature of the opinions expressed is respected.

UNIEPRO Critical Points It may take a good deal of time to draw up a questionnaire, depending on the level of complexity of the field being explored and the variety of topics proposed (OPTI, 2001). Scholars within the same field tend to think along the same lines, which can lead to a consensus of opinion without due consideration of all the relevant factors (Boehm, 1970). The process of adapting the experts’ answers after the first questionnaire, in order to use them in subsequent rounds, can result in the inaccurate transcription of their opinions (Boehm; Helmer, 1966, in Bramwell and Hykawy, 1999). There may not be sufficient awareness of the schools of thought involved when future events are considered (Weaver, 1971).

UNIEPRO Evolution of the Delphi Technique Real-Time Delphi or Conference Delphi – The main characteristic of this procedure is the use of an integrated network of computers, with suitable software used to compile outcomes, which makes the task of the researchers a good deal easier. The great advantage of this method is that it saves time in the tabulation of results and in distributing and responding to questionnaires. Its main disadvantage is the difficulty in obtaining a representative number of participating experts who can all be available at the same time. The Policy Delphi – As opposed to the search for consensus, this new application attempts to identify possibly significant contrasting ideas related to an aspect of organizational policy and is defined as a decision-making technique, rather than a foresight instrument.

UNIEPRO Evolution of the Delphi Technique Delphi Decision-Making – In this case, the Delphi technique is used to optimize the decision-making process. The groups used are known to have diverse, even antagonistic, interests with regard to the study object or issue being explored. The Delphi questionnaire is used here as a problem-solving tool to resolve complex issues. Structured communications among the group members must take place. Using Delphi in Scenario Building – According to Kayo and Securato (in Sáfadi, 2001), the use of the Delphi technique to build scenarios minimizes the impact of uncertainty in decision-making, owing to the intervention of several experts.

UNIEPRO Thank you! Marcello Pio – UNIEPRO Marcello. pio@dn. senai. br 55 61 3317 -9878