Introduction to Technology Foresight TF A tool for

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Introduction to Technology Foresight (TF) A tool for strengthening National System of Innovation J.

Introduction to Technology Foresight (TF) A tool for strengthening National System of Innovation J. G. Shantha Siri Technology Division

Objective of this presentation

Objective of this presentation

Outline n Origin and evolution of TF n Introduction to TF What ? output/outcome

Outline n Origin and evolution of TF n Introduction to TF What ? output/outcome why ? n TF as a tool for strengthening National System of Innovation n Why it is relevant to Sri Lanka n Lessons from other countries

1. Origin & Evolution n 1950’s - n 1980 s - n 1990 -

1. Origin & Evolution n 1950’s - n 1980 s - n 1990 - n 1994 - n 1970 - n At present Technology Forecasting, Delphi technique by US Do. D US –TF to short listed critical technologies Netherlands, TF by Ministry of Economic Affaires Germany - Identified list of 100 emerging technologies France, Ministry of Industry – Identify Key technologies Japan Pioneering in TF over 30 years Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea and many more

2. Introduction Definitions: 1. Foresight involves systematic attempts to look into the future of

2. Introduction Definitions: 1. Foresight involves systematic attempts to look into the future of science, technology, the economy and society, with a view to identifying emerging generic technologies and the underpinning areas of strategic research likely to yield the greatest economic, social and environmental benefit". (APEC Centre for Technology Foresight, Thailand) 2. Technology Foresight is the systematic study of trends in science, technology, the economy and society with the purpose of determining the fields of strategic research and developing generic technologies which would provide the most significant economic and social benefits. Grupp, Hariolf, Linstone, Harold A, 1999

 Target A B

Target A B

Technology Foresight helps; To look ahead and consider the role that may be required

Technology Foresight helps; To look ahead and consider the role that may be required of Science & Technology in the Future

n n n It involves the consideration of a range of possible futures instead

n n n It involves the consideration of a range of possible futures instead of a single one Try to maintain the balance between the S & T push and the market pull Meaningful participation of stakeholders in decisionmaking processes.

Phases of TF n n n Pre-Foresight Identify experts & sectors Main Foresight Situational

Phases of TF n n n Pre-Foresight Identify experts & sectors Main Foresight Situational analysis, workshops, consult expert panel , Delphi survey Post Foresight Influence government R&D priorities/industry R&D strategies/technology road maps

Different Levels of TF n Macro-level – Among ministries/departments n Meso-level- Group of companies

Different Levels of TF n Macro-level – Among ministries/departments n Meso-level- Group of companies n Micro-level – Individual company/institution

Output/outcomes of TF

Output/outcomes of TF

Vacuum tubes Transistor ICs How many transistors in a Pentium IV Desktop (3 –

Vacuum tubes Transistor ICs How many transistors in a Pentium IV Desktop (3 – 3. 8 GHz) ? Quantum computation /Molecular computing

Output of TF is represent by six Cs • Communication • Concentration • Coordination

Output of TF is represent by six Cs • Communication • Concentration • Coordination • Consensus • Commitment • Comprehension

TF Facilitates n Knowledge synthesizing and refining n Effective knowledge dissemination n Enhanced learning

TF Facilitates n Knowledge synthesizing and refining n Effective knowledge dissemination n Enhanced learning n Greater capacity for innovating n Inputs for the formulation of technology policies and strategies

Why TF n There is a belief that it is possible to shape the

Why TF n There is a belief that it is possible to shape the future rather than simply prepare for a future. n Successful exploitation of technology has become critical in achieving economic competitiveness n A prioritized strategic R & D is essential since limited R&D budgets n Population is increasing, resources are depleting. Demanding a better quality of life

n In the globalization, not only free flow of human and money but pandemics,

n In the globalization, not only free flow of human and money but pandemics, technology (FDI), economic downturns, irregular weather patterns, environmental pollution across continents n To cope with these changes, our Science & Technology systems should be able to respond by adapting existing technologies or developing and applying new ones n Because technology by itself does not work; it needs to be integrated with other parts like the economy, the environment and society.

Global driving forces that challenge S & T Policy n Increasing Competition – global

Global driving forces that challenge S & T Policy n Increasing Competition – global market n Increasing Constraint – R&D Budgets n n Increasing Complexity –S&T, economy, politics, culture, environment Increasing Competencies – Scientific & technological

3. TF as a tool for strengthening National System of Innovation National system of

3. TF as a tool for strengthening National System of Innovation National system of Innovation –More emphasis on linkages Innovations are characterised by technology confluence and fusion which need n n n Multi-disciplinary fields/institutional efforts Networks/partnerships Systemic policies Effective learning mechanisms S & T Tacit knowledge transfer

Technology Foresight provides support to innovation, and incentives and assistance to enterprises in; technology

Technology Foresight provides support to innovation, and incentives and assistance to enterprises in; technology management technology transfer leading to enhanced competitiveness and growth.

4. Why it is relevant to Sri Lanka n n n n Fall behind

4. Why it is relevant to Sri Lanka n n n n Fall behind in the international technology race and lose ability to compete internationally To identify technologies which will be decisive for future competitiveness Prompted by ever-tighter public R&D budgets Establish priorities in research and technology policy. Time of signaling a socio-political stability of the country Many scientists and experts from industry and the administration as possible, together with representatives of other societal groups. Public-private partnerships

5. Lessons from other countries Korea The Korea (NIC) has used technology foresight over

5. Lessons from other countries Korea The Korea (NIC) has used technology foresight over the past three decades and at present, the country is using it in, n Prioritizing research areas n R&D resource allocation and n Science and Technology policy making.

National technology foresight, 2003 - 2004 Korea Technology Foresight Centre, KISTEP Future prospects of

National technology foresight, 2003 - 2004 Korea Technology Foresight Centre, KISTEP Future prospects of Korean society up to Year 2030 Future demands and needs of general public Technology subjects by technical panels Total 761 future technology subjects were Delphi-surveyed realization time technical level and gap strategic importance obstacle to overcome National Science & Technology Council Total 21 technology areas impact on the quality of life economic growth public needs Government master plan overall priority-setting R&D program in Korea

Thailand n Thailand in 1997 – Severe financial crisis n Today a NIC n

Thailand n Thailand in 1997 – Severe financial crisis n Today a NIC n More emphasis on TF to overcome the crisis through technological development

“Hospital of the Future” - Bumrungrad International Hospital It's not in the US; it's

“Hospital of the Future” - Bumrungrad International Hospital It's not in the US; it's not even in Europe--it's in Thailand n n n n International healthcare accreditation Integrated hospital information system (Administrative, financial and clinical) Electronic medical records and digital radiology systems System is a key to achieving rapid scheduling of services and efficient use of resources Eliminates paper and waiting time Robotic” technology maximizes both safety and efficiency. Medications selected and delivered in a way that drastically reduces the potential for medication errors.

Japan The success of Japan's technology development is attributed to comprehensive technological forecasting studies

Japan The success of Japan's technology development is attributed to comprehensive technological forecasting studies which were conducted in the 1960 s. Kuwahara, Terutaka, 1999 Technological Forecasting & Social Change

Technological change and the economic growth Rank Country 1 2 3 15 35 78

Technological change and the economic growth Rank Country 1 2 3 15 35 78 European Union US Japan People's Republic of China South Korea Thailand Sri Lanka List by IMF 2008 GDP (millions of USD) 18, 394, 115 14, 264, 600 4, 923, 761 4, 401, 614 947, 010 273, 248 39, 604

Greenest Building in the World Indian Industry’s Sohrabji Godrej Green Business Centre — Hyderabad,

Greenest Building in the World Indian Industry’s Sohrabji Godrej Green Business Centre — Hyderabad, India

 • Two 45 -foot wind towers and screen walls air pre-cooled by 10

• Two 45 -foot wind towers and screen walls air pre-cooled by 10 degrees to the air-conditioning system, -Venturi effect’ • Photovoltaic panels built into- takes care of 20% of the building’s annual energy requirements • Electrical fixtures have been automated • Building does not require any artificial lighting during the day because its circular design allows sunlight to reach every part of it • Construction materials - that were, were recycled and ecofriendly ( broken mosaic tiles, steel, wood, glass, fly ash brick).

Thank you

Thank you