UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Foresight for developing countries

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Foresight for developing countries and economies in transition UNIDO’s Role as a Policy Advisor Promoting Technology Foresight – Present and Future UNIDO 1 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme The New Global Setting § Increased financial, trade and investment flows § Rapid and accelerating technological progress; electronics, ICTs, biotechnology, new materials, fuel cells, nanotechnologies § New international regulations and standards, trade, quality, labor, environment, intellectual property rights § New systems to design, produce, distribute, and manage § Global value chains and production networks emerge in all types of industries managed by multinational companies and global buyers Companies and governments in developing countries are even more affected by changes on global setting UNIDO 2 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Capacity & resources deficiencies in developing countries § § § § § UNIDO Lack of conducive integrated policy and institutional framework Under-developed technology and innovation promotion capabilities Short-term thinking and reactive mode action System linkage failures and poor coordination Disconnection of application of new technologies from socioeconomic problems Scientific institutions with strong and inflexible disciplinary focus Low technology and innovation intensity in industry Lack of funding for technology acquisition and diffusion Lack of human capital and increasing human resources crisis (brain drain, demography) Absence of adequate equipment and infrastructure 3 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Response to emerging challenges and opportunities Redefining policies compatible with global industrial interconnections – Where innovation and technology up-grading are key for competitiveness and sustainable development § § § UNIDO Connecting national industries to global value chains – Need of global positioning of national industries • Through comparing performance and drivers – Up-grading industrial capabilities Enhancing industrial governance Promoting foresight culture and application of foresight methodologies 4 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Global industrial interconnections Global customers Large-scale, multi-outlet retailers Small-scale retailers Global buyers National economy boundary Buyer and export agents Local customers UNIDO Large-scale or multi-plant manufacturers Small-scale manufacturers suppliers Investment and Technology 5 Domestic industrial cluster Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Connecting national industry to global value chains Global industries tem s Sup Sy Sys port Industrial Clusters t st r po em p u S s Governance system UNIDO Framework 6 conditions Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Global Positioning of National Industries Enabling business environment Global Links Regulatory framework Linking, liberating and learning Credit ranking FDI and domestic capability building Infrastructure Cost of doing business Cost of production Performance GDP per capita Import of capital goods Trade performance Competitive industrial performance Poverty Environment Gender development Capabilities Trade diversification Industrial governance Human Capital Economic transformation index Technology and innovation Corporate social responsibility Modern infrastructure UNIDO Governance Economic freedom 7 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Comparing Performance/Drivers Country position First Quartile Second Quartile Third Last Quartile §Performance X §Business Environment X §Technology and Innovation X §Global linkages X §Governance UNIDO X 8 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Up-grading Industrial Capabilities UNIDO 9 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme GOVERNMENT Guides the overall strategy process and focuses on strategic tasks and policy issues PRIVATE SECTOR Identify and assess challenges and opportunities and organize collective responses SUPPORT SYSTEM Industrial Governance Analyze trends Support clusters Strengthen capabilities and global links REGIONS Promote and Support the development of local clusters UNIDO 10 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Promotion of a foresight culture and application of the foresight methodology § Establishing a transparent structured decision-making process § Introducing a forward-looking attitude § Provoking a creative and motivating decision making environment § Stimulating a participative approach § Enabling mutual learning and strategic dialogue § Reaching consensus around shared visions § Linking technology acquisition and diffusion to wider socioeconomic issues UNIDO 11 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme What is foresight? § B. Martin (1995): - Research foresight is “the process involved in systematically attempting to look into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy and society with the aim of identifying the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits” § L. Georghiou (1996): - Technology foresight is “a systematic means of assessing those scientific and technological developments which could have a strong impact on industrial competitiveness, wealth creation and quality of life” The future is „certainly uncertain“, foresight has to prepare us for a variety of "futures" 12

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme What for Technology Foresight in developing countries and economies in transition? § Improve decision making § Guide technology choices § Generate alternative trajectories for future development § Enhance learning and improve preparedness for emergencies § Motivate change UNIDO 13 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Typical stakeholders in a Foresight exercise Foresight is about providing a framework for ongoing DIALOGUE between various societal actors, such as: – – Government Industry Academy - natural & social scientists Others, e. g. NGOs, trades unions, the media, banks, schools, the general public, etc. An important benefit for these actors is mutual (and collective) learning UNIDO 14 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme The context of the Foresight process UNIDO 15 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Inclusion of Foresight in policy-making process UNIDO 16 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Classes of Foresight methods Criteria 1. Methods based on eliciting expert knowledge to develop long term strategies − Delphi method − Experts panels − Brainstorming − Mindmapping − Scenario analysis workshops − SWOT analysis 2. Quantitative methods that make use of statistics and other data − Trend extrapolation − Simulation modelling − Cross impact analysis − System dynamics 3. UNIDO Methods to identify key points of action to determine planning strategies 17 − Critical/ key technologies − Relevance trees − Morphological analysis Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Creativity Overview of some common methods (Loveridge, 1996) Science fiction Brainstorming Scenario writing Essays La prospective Combinations of methods Workshops Delphi Panels Impact matrix Conferences Interaction Alignment Expertise • UNIDO 18 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Status of foresight § Multiple activities and purposes sharing a name § Content focus § Structural focus (increasing tendency) – Reorienting Science & Innovation system – Demonstrating vitality of S & I system – Bringing new actors into the strategic debate – Building new networks and linkages across fields, sectors & markets or around problems § Content and Structural Goals may be addressed simultaneously – All above may be at organisational, local, regional, national or supranational levels § Also foresight carrying input from S&T futures into wider policy domains – Priority setting – Identifying ways in which future science and technology could address future challenges for society and identifying potential opportunities UNIDO 19 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Context of move to open innovation § Convergence of innovation and industrial policy in the context of knowledge economy § Concept of innovation ecosystem § Foresight role in creating shared strategic vision § Emerging reorientation of innovation policy with new emphasis upon demand-side policies – Also an industrial policy based upon fostering clusters, platforms and supply chains – Key driver of development is linkage between local capabilities and effective demand UNIDO 20 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Four generations of Foresight FIRST GENERATION Technology forecasts SECOND GENERATION Technology and markets UNIDO THIRD GENERATION FOURTH Technology, GENERATION markets and the social Distributed dimension Role in Innovation System 21 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme UNIDO Initiative on Technology Foresight UNIDO 22 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Development objectives § Contribute to enhancing the industrial competitiveness and expand trading potential § Foster economic, environmental and social benefits at national and regional levels § Definition of innovation policies and R&D programmes UNIDO 23 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Components § Awareness building and foresight culture § National and Regional / Supra-national capabilities § Regional and International coordination – Partnerships promotion UNIDO 24 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme UNIDO support § International Conferences and workshops on best practices and methodologies (national, supra-national and corporate) § Promoting industry participation § Task force of experts and methodology development for preparation and during foresight exercises § Conducting foresight projects in selected productive chains and countries § Cooperation in the post-foresight process UNIDO 25 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Tools and methodologies § Book on International Practices on Technology Foresight § UNIDO Manual on Technology Foresight § Web page: www. unido. org/foresight § CD-ROM collection § Delphi on-line § TF for Production Chains (national and supra-national) UNIDO 26 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Regional or Supra-national dimension § Foresight as a tool for plurinational R&D programmes § Enhance quality and effectiveness of foresight through multi -country networking § Reduce costs by sharing common activities § Awareness of global and regional trends § Joint vision and solutions for cross-border problems § Concentration of plurinational production chains UNIDO 27 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Foresight Exercise for Production Chains Production processes Markets Identification of: Opportunities for the pluri-national production chains and industries Required cooperation for technology up-grading 28

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Special characteristics of the UNIDO approach: Participation of different countries Plurinational Multisectorial Complex production chains UNIDO 29 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Examples of UNIDO foresight exercises • • UNIDO Multi-country level National level Sub-national level Company level 30 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Regional or Multi-country foresight exercises and activities Some issues have to be examined on higher than national level or international cooperation is required • Training Programme on Technology Foresight (2001 -7) • Technology Foresight Summit - Budapest, Hungary (2003 -7) • Impact of EU-Accession to Agro-food and Automotive industries (2003) • Future of the Fishery Industry in South American Pacific cost (2005 -6) • Future of the Andean Products: Medicinal Plants (2006 -7) • Future of the Food Industry in 6 CEE countries (2007 -9) UNIDO 31 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme REGIONAL LATIN AMERICA THE FUTURE OF THE FISHERY INDUSTRY South American Pacific Coast UNIDO 32 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Fishery Productive Chain RESOURCES PROCESSING Marine Fresh water Aquaculture INDUSTRIAL INPUTS Intermediate and final agricultural goods Canned EXTRACTION Factory ships Frozen Seine Cured Small scale Aquaculture Concentrated Hydrolysed NON - HUMAN CONSUMPTION Industrial intermediate goods Meals and crude oils Production services Capital goods Infrastructure UNIDO HUMAN CONSUMPTION 33 Semi-refined oils Refined oils Balanced food Animal feed Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Methodology Strengh and weakness of the environment National productive chains: fleets, industry, markets National Diagnostics Regional Panel National Panels Regional Situation National Foresight Studies Consultations Regional Panel and Report Critical Technologies UNIDO Decision Making Processes 34 Tools of Action Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Future of the Fishery Industry in South American Pacific cost Main results § 1) Agreements on regional cooperation for improving productivity and competitiveness § 2) Definition of regional R&D programmes § 3) Application of up-graded technologies UNIDO 35 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Future of the Fishery Industry in South American Pacific cost Recommendations for follow up programmes - Definition of a regional policy - Technology up-grading and investment promotion for re-conversion and modernization - Creation of new regional center for capability building and technology watch/road mapping - Establishing a quality mark of origin for the fish products of the region UNIDO 36 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe Project: Healthy and Safe Food for the Future - A Technology Foresight Project in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia Contract no. : 43005 Future. Food 6 European Commission – 6 th Framework Starting date: 01 February 2007 Duration: 2 years UNIDO 37 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe The immediate goal: § to assist the total food chain in Central and Eastern European countries to reach international standards § to enhance European competitiveness as a whole by developing an industry, which is synonymous with safety, diversity, sophistication and products of high quality. UNIDO 38 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe Project strategy: Mobilization of a variety of stakeholders groups 2. A socio-economic scenario building exercise 3. Interviews with specialists. 4. A survey on key technologies 5. Future vision building exercise 6. Technology road mapping 1. UNIDO 39 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe Project Team WIIW UNIDO OPTI FORESIGHT AND INNOVATION GROUP (FIG) B Hungary IEHAS C UNIDO Czech Republic TC AS CR Slovakia Croatia Romania Bulgaria BIC Group NWMC UEFISCSU ARC Fund D Committee of high-level national policy-makers 40 Knowledge institutions on food industry from every participating country Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Future of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe Work plan flowchart UNIDO 41 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme National foresight programmes • Chile - Identify strategic economic and technology sectors • Brazil - Production chains: textiles, plastics, wood, construction • Uruguay - Macro-sectors trends: food biotechnology, energy and transportation and logistics • Venezuela - Application of the results of the TF exercise • Ukraine – Establish the institutional framework and capability • Romania - National STI Strategy UNIDO 42 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Sub-national foresight Specific problems of regions, individual subnational bodies of large countries • Foresight Programme for Irkutsk – Russian Federation UNIDO 43 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Corporate Foresight § Technology Fairs of the Future § Module 4: Training on Corporate Foresight – BIC Group, Bratislava, Slovakia UNIDO 44 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Future UNIDO efforts § Support companies in developing countries and economies in transition to set up foresight capabilities § Establish a connection between the construction of alternative future visions through foresight exercises and the definition of industrial policies and governance framework. UNIDO 45 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme § Regional Initiative on Technology Foresight in CEE/NIS - Capacity Building UNIDO 46 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CEE/NIS TF INITIATIVE UNIDO 47 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Steering Committee UNIDO Service Unit Managing board TF Studies fp fp TF Methods fp 1 fp Regional Virtual Center (RVC) UNIDO fp 2 IMU fp 48 TF Training TF Summit Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme TRAINING PROGRAMME § Module 1: Training on Organizing Foresight programmes – TUSSIDE/TUBITAK, Gebze, Turkey § Module 2: Training on TF Methodologies – Technology Centre AS CR, Prague, Czech Republic § Module 3: Seminar on Technology Foresight for Decision. Makers – IE HAS/IPTS, Budapest, Hungary § Module 4: Training on Corporate Foresight – BIC Group, Bratislava, Slovakia § Module 5: Training of Trainers - ITPS UNIDO 49 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme GLOBAL FORUM EVENTS § 2007 Technology Foresight Summit - Budapest, Hungary § 2008 Technology Fair of the Future – Izmir, Turkey UNIDO 50 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Technology Foresight Summit 2007 Highlight: Water Productivity 27 -29 September 2007 Budapest, Hungary Ministry of Economy and Transport of the Republic of Hungary organized in cooperation with UNIDO 51 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme TF Summit-2007 Immediate objectives: § To organize a regular summit § To address a selected highlight area through undertaking regional and cross-regional discussions § To interact on the results of TF exercises Expected outputs: § Strengthened and sustained awareness § Recommendation for high-level decision-makers § Encouragement of TF programmes § Application of results of FT studies for selected Highlighted Areas § Identification of relevant problems in the regions UNIDO 52 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Components of the TF Summit-2007 Special emphasis on water productivity addressing industry related technologies: protection of water resources and key technologies for zero discharge through: 1. Water Productivity Symposium 2. Water Technology Fair of the Future 3. Ministerial Round Table 4. Technology Foresight thematic panels UNIDO 53 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme 2008 Technology Fair of the Future ESBAS-Aegean Free Zone Izmir, Turkey, May 2008 UNIDO 54 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme Objectives of the Technology Fair: 1. to offer participating enterprises and technology institutes the opportunity to present new ideas, designs, concepts, future products and markets as well as foresight visions in their fields of specialization. 2. offer participants a platform to forge partnerships, linkages, strategic alliances and joint ventures for improved access to markets UNIDO 55 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme www. unido. org/foresight Dr. -Ing. Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca Pilar Rodriguez-Ruiz INVESTMENT AND TECHNOLOGY PROMOTION BRANCH UNIDO 56 Investment and Technology Promotion Branch