Politicologenetmaal 2010 Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Mai 27 28

Politicologenetmaal 2010, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Mai 27 -28 Workshop “The Postmodern Election Campaign: the Role of Parties and the Media” The day after: Islsmic Immigrants, economic recovery or cuts in government expenditures: the Dutch election campaign 2010 Jan Kleinnijenhuis Janet Takens Anita van Hoof j. kleinnijenhuis@fsw. vu. nl Wouter van Atteveldt Department of Communication Science, VU University Amsterdam

Vraag voor de campagne: wat wordt HET thema o o o Islamitische immigranten (culturele dimensie – conservatieve kant) Economisch herstel (consensusissues - regeringspartijen) Bezuinigingen overheidsuitgaven (links-rechts-dimensie – rechtse kant) Semantic Network Analysis 2 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 2

Kengetallen 2010 • Grote volatiliteit 34 zetels verschoven tussen partijen (evenals in 1994, geringer dan in 2002) • Grote fragmentatie dan ooit, grootste partij slechts 31 zetels, slechts 1/5 van de stemmen entropie in NE, perplexiteit = 7. 7 gelijke partijen Semantic Network Analysis 3 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam

Waarom de Stemwijzer CDA-kiezers alle kanten opstuurt Semantic Network Analysis 4 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam

Waarom Kieskompas CDA-kiezers wegjaagt Semantic Network Analysis 5 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam

Intomart. Gfk poll 7 th – 8 th Mai June 7 th – June 8 th Correct: Pvd. D, CDA, SGP, D 66, VVD; 1 zetel fout Pvd. A, Groen. Links, D 66 echt fout: SP en CU te hoog, PVV te laag Dutch Election Campaign 2010 6 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 6

Intomart. Gfk poll Pvd. A verreweg de grootste op 34; PVV op 20 Dutch Election Campaign 2010 7 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 7

Four theories to explain short term shifts in election campaigns o Retrospective voting and news about real-world developments o Prospective issue voting and news about the issue positions of parties o Game theory and news on Cooperation and Conflict, Support and Criticism o Momentum, bandwagon/underdog effects, herding effect, and news on Success and Failure Mediating variables: propensity to vote, trust or striking features and striking events ? Semantic Network Analysis 8 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam

Methode o Daily Content Analysis (Nieuwsmonitor) o Weekly Panel Survey data (Intomart. Gfk, 10 waves, (first wave early April n=1804, 10 th wave 7 -8 th June n=1200) o reconstruction of personal, exponentially decaying, information sets o Operationalisation of mediating News Consumer Variables o Exploratory Data Analysis: logistic model Semantic Network Analysis 9 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam

Noteworthy: campaign 2010 until April 23 rd issue-oriented Dutch Election Campaign 2010 10 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam

Table 2: Real world developments according to the media retrospective voting: terrifying real-world conditions in 2010 Dutch Election Campaign 2010 11 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 11

Table 3: Issue positions of parties in 2010 election campaign according to the media, weighted by media attention Issue Positions 2010: what happened with leftist issues? Issue positions of parties in 2010 election campaign according to the media, weighted by media attention Dutch Election Campaign 2010 12 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 12

Table 4: Issue ownership in the eyes of Dutch voters, March 2010 Issue ownership: issue reputations March (n=1804) Dutch Election Campaign 2010 13 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 13

Conflict & Coop between and within: wie krijgt er smoel ? Table 4: Issue ownership in the eyes of Dutch voters, March 2010 Feb 19 th – April 11 th Dutch Election Campaign 2010 14 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 14

Conflict & Coop between and within: wie krijgt er smoel ? Table 4: Issue ownership in the eyes of Dutch voters, March 2010 April 26 th – May 9 th Dutch Election Campaign 2010 15 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 15

Conflict & Coop between and within: wie krijgt er smoel ? Table 4: Issue ownership in the eyes of Dutch voters, March 2010 May 10 h – May 23 trd Dutch Election Campaign 2010 16 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 16

Conflict & Coop between and within: wie krijgt er smoel ? Table 4: Issue ownership in the eyes of Dutch voters, March 2010 Dutch Election Campaign 2010 17 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 17

Conflict & Coop between and within: wie krijgt er smoel ? Table 4: Issue ownership in the eyes of Dutch voters, March 2010 Dutch Election Campaign 2010 18 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 18

Conflict & Coop between and within: wie krijgt er smoel ? Table 4: Issue ownership in the eyes of Dutch voters, March 2010 Dutch Election Campaign 2010 19 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 19

Voter flows: June 7 th-8 th as compared to 2006 elections Dutch Election Campaign 2010 20 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 20

Wie valt aan de kiezers positief of negatief op? Dutch Election Campaign 2010 21 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 21

Wie valt aan de kiezers positief of negatief op? Dutch Election Campaign 2010 22 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 22

Wie valt aan de kiezers positief of negatief op? Dutch Election Campaign 2010 23 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 23

Wie valt aan de kiezers positief of negatief op? Dutch Election Campaign 2010 24 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 24

Voter flows: June 7 th-8 th as compared to 2010 mun. el. March Dutch Election Campaign 2010 25 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 25

Voter flows May 17 th- May 23 rd Dutch Election Campaign 2010 26 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 26

Voter flows Dutch Election Campaign 2010 27 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 27

Voter flows Dutch Election Campaign 2010 28 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 28

Attribution of success and failure late March: all Pvd. A March 15 th - March 28 th Dutch Election Campaign 2010 29 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 29

Early april: VVD more success than Pvd. A March 29 th - April 11 th Dutch Election Campaign 2010 30 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 30

Attribution of success and failure in May: all VVD Mai 10 h – Mai 23 th Dutch Election Campaign 2010 31 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 31

Logistic model to explain whether one votes for a party in a given week Dutch Election Campaign 2010 32 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 32

Logistic model per party o Christian Democrats (CDA) o strong impact of the (negative) media performance of the party on the voters (leadership of Balkenende, extramarital affair of family man De Vries). o Impact of news on struggles within (doubts about Balkenende, De Vries) o positive impact with their issue positions, for example with a strong position against crime. o The Socialist Party (SP) o Until May 23 rd unable in 2010 to make impressions on the voters with issue positions. o Strong recovery after 2 nd television debate; the come back of leftist issues Semantic Network Analysis 33 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 33

Logistic model per party o The Labour Party (Pvd. A) o did not succeed in making an impact with its issue positions in addition to the effects of subjective media performance until late April o Shifts of voters to, or from the party can be explained best by news on successes and failures (e. g. by the great successes attributed to the major of Amsterdam in his political honeymoon month) and by news about the support for (praise, positive remarks, rather than criticisms on!) the new leader of the Labour Party in the early weeks of the election campaign o VVD o strong impact due to its issue positions on rightist issues (cuts in government expenditures, tax cuts), government efficiency, norms and values. Semantic Network Analysis 34 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 34

Evaluation of the campaign o Highlights o Respect of party leaders for each other o Issues, although not always the most relevant issues (not: EU, Afghanistan, climate) o Sense of shame o Fragmented television debates fragmented political landscape o lack of clarity with regard to social effects of party programmes (e. g. de Volkskrant – Nyfer) o NOS journaal Mai 1 st: internal dissent news about anonymous CDA-leaders who did not trust Balkenende Semantic Network Analysis 35 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam 35

Summary / Discussion Dutch Elections 2010 o It’s cuts in government expenditures, o It’s only the right side of the left-right axis o It’s the VVD Semantic Network Analysis 36 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam

Cross-national proximity scaling of party-issue-landscape Semantic Network Analysis 37 Department of Communication Science The Network Institute, VU University Amsterdam