Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Overlegcentrum voor Ethiek Universiteit Antwerpen

Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Overlegcentrum voor Ethiek Universiteit Antwerpen Dept. Comm. Wet Scoring personality Soccer game outcomes as behavioral correlates of cross-cultural personality and value orientation differences. Tim Smits Ben Van Calster Paper presented at the second DCCP meeting, Tilburg, The Netherlands, March 2008

Background Cross-cultural value orientations and personality differences - Powerful descriptives - Ambiguous predictives If any real-life significance, then a relation with behavioral measures should show up - Lab-behavior, or otherwise controlled behavioral measures - Real-life cultural data or arifacts Psychologie: Conditionering

Focal behavior Soccer - Rationale: Soccer is a cultural behavior, though probably the most globalized of its kind Hence, if values/personality are predictive in this area, then effects yield strong evidence - Different levels considered • National ranking • Game outcome characteristics: mean number of goals per game, probability of scoreless draw - Caveat: effects should be more than mere reflections of economic difference Psychologie: Conditionering

Research questions Hyotheses Soccer excellence and gameplay depend on qualities that differ inter-culturally. The strategic part might differ consistently with psychological variables. Excellence: - Reflected in ranking - Values > Personality? Gameplay: - Reflected in goals per game and scoreless draws - Personality ~ Values? Psychologie: Conditionering

Data Secondary data for 34 countries Economics: HDI / GDP; Gini Value dimensions - Schwartz: harmony, embedded, hierarchy, mastery, affective autonomy, intellectual autonomy, egaliatarianism - Hofstede: power distance, individualism, masculinity, uncertainty avoidance Personality - Big Five: extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism, openness Psychologie: Conditionering e. g. , Schwartz Schmitt et al. (2007), (2006), JCCP, Comparative 38, 173 -212 Sociology, 5, 137 -182

Data (2) Soccer data: - Points on FIFA ranking per country for seasons 2003 to 2005 (more points = better; based on performance of the national team) - National top competitions for same seasons: • Average goals per game for all teams in the season • Proportion of scoreless draws within competition (Note: globalization most strongly in these data due to international players, coaches, investments etc. ) Van Calster, Smits & Van Huffel (2008), Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 4(1), #4 Psychologie: Conditionering

Analysis strategy Per type of response: Raw correlation matrix: - Index of the (non)-triviality of research question - Selection of appropriate variables for further analysis (cut-off ~. 20) Stepwise regression model on limited set of variables: - Most predictive variables • With forced inclusion of economic variables Psychologie: Conditionering

Results: Fifa ranking Raw Correlations: - Economy (1/2) : HDI - Schwartz (5/7) : harmony, embedded, hierarchy, intellectual autonomy, egalitarianism - Hofstede (2/4) : individualism, uncertainty avoidance - Big Five (0/5) Stepwise regression : -. 39 < R² <. 49 - Uncertainty avoidance (p <. 0001) - Individualism (p ~. 001) Psychologie: Conditionering

Results: Goals per game Raw Correlations (unrelated to FIFA ranking): - Economy (2/2) : HDI, Gini Schwartz (0/7) : Hofstede (1/4) : uncertainty avoidance Big Five (2/5): extraversion, conscientiousness Stepwise regression : - Uncertainty avoidance spurious, hence deleted. 39 < R² <. 49 HDI & Gini (p ~. 01) Extraversion & Conscientiousness (p ~. 01) Psychologie: Conditionering

Results: Scoreless draws Raw Correlations (related to FIFA ranking): - Economy (1/2) : Gini Schwartz (1/7) : hierarchy Hofstede (1/4) : uncertainty avoidance Big Five (1/5): conscientiousness Stepwise regression : - R² ~. 19 Gini (p ~. 08) Uncertainty avoidance (. 005 < p <. 06) 2005: Conscientiousness (p ~. 02 ; R² ~. 43) Psychologie: Conditionering

Discussion Soccer play is consistently related to intercultural differences - Irrespective of economic differences - Even in the most particular and globalized aspect of our data: scoreless draws Summary of findings - Ranking: Many relations with value orientations, strong predictions - Goals per game: Relations with economy & personality, strong predictions - Scoreless draws: Some relations and mediocre Psychologie: Conditionering predictions

Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Overlegcentrum voor Ethiek Universiteit Antwerpen Dept. Comm. Wet Scoring personality Soccer game outcomes as behavioral correlates of cross-cultural personality and value orientation differences. Tim Smits Ben Van Calster Paper presented at the second DCCP meeting, Tilburg, The Netherlands, March 2008