Japan Demography Demographic Development in Japan population 126

Japan

Demography & Demographic Development in Japan population 126. 442. 729

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What does this mean for Energy Use?

“…by 2035, the country’s population will fall by 13 percent, but the number of households will only fall by 4 percent. ”

Population Density and Transport • Cities mean less driving emissions • Rurual areas mean more driving to reach places • Per capita energy use is increasing faster in areas where population is shrinking than those where it is growing

Economic Situation of Japan

Historical Development Post WW 2 After firebombing in Tokyo 1945

Source: IEA, 2014

• Total value of exports: US$792. 9 billion • Total value of imports: US$ 856. 9 billion DEBT: 1, 1 Trillion USD

“Japan is the worlds largest liquefied natural gas importer, second-largest coal importer, and third largest net importer of crude oil and oil products” - U. S. energy information administration

Efficiency Measures Source: World Bank

Land Use Change Problem In Japan - Occurred primarily in the 1960’s and 70’s, but currently it is not super significant

CO 2 -emissions (in million kt )and GDP-growth (%) 1, 30 5 4 1, 25 2 1, 20 1 1, 15 0 -1 GDP-growth in % CO 2 -emissions in million kt 3 CO 2 emissions (kt) GDP growth (annual %) 1, 10 -2 -3 1, 05 -4 1, 00 -5 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: World Bank

90 Japan share of electricity generation by source (%) 80 70 60 ? 50 40 Electricity production from oil, gas and coal sources (% of total) 30 Electricity production from nuclear sources (% of total) 20 10 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: World Bank

How to deal with Fukushima

Policy • 1997 Kyoto Protocol • 2009 Copenhagen Pledge: 25% below 1990 levels by 2020 • 2010 Bill of the Basic Act on Global Warming Countermeasures

Policy • 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster; caused a significant scaling back of 2020 emissionreduction targets • 2013 announced Warsaw Target = 3. 8% reduction from 2005 levels by 2020 (3. 1% of 1990) assumes no nuclear power generation • 2012 Innovative Strategy on Energy and Environment

Japan’s Post Fukushima Energy Policy The 4 th Strategic Energy Plan

• The Strategic energy plan, based on the Basic Act of Energy Policy, is an anchor of energy supply/demand policies in Japan. • It was laid out by the METI (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry) Japan on April 11 th 2014. • The 4 th plan gives a direction of Japan’s energy policies for medium/long term (about next 20 years), declaring a period from now to 2018 -2020 as a special stage to reform a variety of energy systems.

• Basic Principle of 4 th Strategic Plan to encompass: • • Stable Supply (Energy Security) Cost Reduction (Economic Efficiency) Environmental Concerns Safety 3 E + S

Evaluation of each Energy Source for the Future • Renewable Energy: Promising, important for self-sufficiency goals. • Nuclear Power: Continued importance as base load power source. Safety aspects to be reiterated. • Coal: Revaluating as an important base load power source in terms of stability and cost effectiveness. (Utilization of efficient thermal power generation technology)

• Natural Gas: Important as a main intermediate power source. • Oil: Important energy source and raw material especially for transport and civilian sectors as well as a peaking power source. • Energy Mix: Yet to be decided upon, factors to be taken into consideration include restart of nuclear power plants and expansion of renewable energy.

• Feed-in Tariff (FIT) for Renewables • Introduced in July 2012. • The solar Fi. T was ¥ 42/k. Wh (41 cents US) for ten years, which was reduced in April 2013 to ¥ 38 for small systems, and to be reduced again in April 2014 to ¥ 37/k. Wh residential and ¥ 32/k. Wh for systems over 10 k. W. • The wind Fi. T in 2012 was ¥ 23. 1/k. Wh for units above 20 k. W, and ¥ 57. 75 for smaller units (of which none had been approved).

Global Warming Tax • • Enforced in 2012. Taxation of 3 USD/metric ton of CO 2 by FY 2016. Expected revenue: 2, 6 billion USD after 2016. Aim is to promote Renewables with the generated revenue.

Role of Energy Efficiency in Future Policy

Fluctuation of Energy Prices

Sources • April 21, 2014; a statement on the basic energy plan of Japan. http: //jref. or. jp/en/activities/reports_20140411. php • Sheldrick and Tsukimori. As Japand burns more coal, climate policies under pressure. December 11, 2014. http: //www. reuters. com/article/2014/12/11/us-climatechange-japanid. USKBN 0 JP 0 O 520141211 • Current Status of Japan’s climate policy mix (ppt) http: //www. iges. or. jp/files/research/climate-energy/PDF/20131216/TERIIGES_2 -2_Kuramochi. pdf • Blumenthal, Damassa & kuramochi (june 19, 2014) Post-fukushima climate action: how japan can achieve greater emissions reductions http: //www. wri. org/blog/2014/06/post-fukushima-climate-action-howjapan-can-achieve-greater-emissions-reductions • Myllyvirta, L. & Guay, J. (2014) How Japan Replaced Half its Nuclear Capacity with Efficiency. Greentech Efficiency. http: //www. greentechmedia. com/articles/read/how-japan-replaced-halfits-nuclear-capacity-with-efficiency

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