Lecture 2 Demography its basic divisions Population statics

Lecture 2 Demography, its basic divisions. Population static's. Mechanical movement or migration of the population

DEMOGRAPHY is a science about the population and its social development. Static's of the population Dynamics of the population Static's studies the data about a population and its structure: distribution according to a sex, age, nationality, marital status, residence, educational level, etc. 1. Mechanical movement of the population - a result of migratory processes. 2. Natural movement of the population - is characterized by a number of statistics; among them the basic ones are: birth rate, death rate, natality, life expectancy at birth.

The census is an important source of health information • The basic source of authentic data about the number and population structure is population census. Attempts of carrying out general population census were undertaken in ancient China, Egypt, India and other ancient civilizations. The first documented general census was carried out in 1790 in the USA, and then in 1801 in Europe (England, France, and Denmark). The first regular census in India was taken in 1881, and others took place at 10 -year intervals. The last census was held in March 2001. • For the first time the census passed in Russia in 1897; preparations to it have been conducted for almost 40 years. During the XX century there were 8 censuses in our country, the last one, the tenth, was carried out in 2010. According to the last population census, hardly more than 142 million persons live in Russia.

The primary function of census is to provide demographic information such as total count of population and its breakdown into groups • A census is defined by the United Nations as "the total process of collecting, compiling and publishing demographic, economic and social data pertaining at a specified time or times, to all persons in a country or delimited territory". Census is a massive undertaking to contact every member of the population in a given time and collect a variety of information. It needs considerable organization, a vast preparation and several years to analyze the results. This is the main drawback of census as a data source - i. e. , the full results are usually not available quickly.

The growth of population of our planet. • At present, practically in all countries of the world general population censuses pass once in 10 years. The results of general censuses show the growth of population of our planet. And especially intensively the population increased in the XX century. If, for example, during the XVII - XIX centuries the population increased not more than by 0, 5 % a year, further evident increase of growth rates is marked literally by decades. From 1930 till 1940 the globe population increased annually by 1 %, by 1950 this index has come nearer to 2 %, and by 1970 – has reached 2. 5 %.

Change of population in the world Years 1730 1830 1960 1970 1980 1990 2005 2011 Total population 0, 8 billion 1, 0 billion 2, 0 billion 3, 6 billion 4, 2 billion 5, 3 billion 6, 0 billion 6, 5 billion 7, 0 billion • Thus, if we track a growth of the population since 1830 we will see that for a hundred years (1830 -1930) it has increased by 1 billion people, • then it took 30 years (19301960) for the same increase of population, • then the population has increased by 1, 2 billion people for twenty years. • Since 1980 the population increases almost by 1 billion every ten years. • The population of the world passed the 7 billion mark on October 2011.

The demographic policy in the modern world • Such high rates of growth of the population are explained by sharp increase of its number in developing countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America. About 75 per cent of the world population lives in developing countries. • Many scientists consider that if population growth precedes the same rates during rather small time interval the mankind cannot exist in the limited territories of our planet under absence of foodstuffs and ecological pollution. • However, impetuous growth of the population can be suspended by carrying out of the competent demographic policy, called to regulate birth rate and thus influence a population in the country. One of the first states which carry out strict demographic policy of population control is China where the progressive system of taxation at a birth of the second and subsequent children is introduced.

Range place of Russia by population 1950 Range The country The place population in million of persons 1 China 564, 7 2 India 357, 6 3 The USSR 178, 5 4 5 6 7 (RSFSR) The USA (102, 7) 157, 8 2000 The country The population in million of persons China India The USA 1285, 2 1024, 9 285, 8 Indonesia Brazil Pakistan Russia 214, 8 172, 8 146, 0 145, 2 • Russia takes the seventh place in the world in a population after China (1285 million people), India (1025 million people), the USA (286 million people), Indonesia (215 million people), Brazil (173 million people) and Pakistan (146 million people). The resident population of the Russian Federation numbers 145, 2 million people and, compared with the 1989 census, the population dropped by 1, 8 million persons.

Population density • Population density is one more result of population census. The most densely occupied countries are the countries of Asia: Japan, South Korea, Pakistan, and India. In these countries population density reaches 200 -500 persons on 1 sq. km. In mega cities, for example in Seoul, Tokyo or Mexico City, population density makes to 700 persons on 1 sq. km. • In the countries of Europe density is about 100 persons on 1 sq. km. • Considering, that there are very big "stocks" of territory in Russia, population density is low and averages 8, 7 inhabitants for 1 sq. km. Besides, population density in the Russian Federation essentially fluctuates on regions. So, the European part is densely occupied – up to 80 persons for one square kilometer, and in areas of the Far North the density not always reaches 1 person for 1 sq. km.

Sexual structure of the population • All over the world the number of women prevails over the number of men. This parity as a whole makes 52 to 48, but every year the number of men steadily grows, though the disproportion remains. • In Russia 46 men fall to 54 women, and this sexual disproportion has been long enough already one of the highest in the world. • In China, for example, in a cohort of the children's population up to 7 years only 1 girl falls to every 5 boys. And, considering the highest population density of China, already now it is possible to assume active emigration of the man's population in 15 -20 years to the neighboring regions where the share of the female population is high, with a view of realization of reproductive aims, and better to say, in searches of "the brides market» .

Sex ratio • Sex ratio is defined as “The number of females per 1000 males”. One of the basic demographic characteristics of the population, analysis of the sex composition. In any study of population, analysis of the sex composition plays a vital role. The sex composition of the population is affected by the differential in mortality conditions of males and females, sex selective migration and sex ratio at birth. • At a birth the parity of boys and girls makes 105 to 100 in most of the world. However during all age periods the death rate at men is above the death rate among women. There a great number of reasons for that. Among them is the raised susceptibility to stresses at men, the high prevalence of bad habits leading to chronic diseases menacing to a life, criminal circumstances and, of course, wars. • The sex ratio in India has been generally adverse to women, i. e. , the number of women per 1, 000 men has generally been less then 1, 000 (933 females per 1000 males in 2001 year). But Kerala has a sex ratio of 1, 058 females per 1, 000 males. It is the only state with a sex ratio favourable to females.

The sex ratio in India Union territories Andaman & Nicobar Island Andhra Pradesh Chandigarh Daman & Diu Kerala Orissa Pondicherry Uttar Pradesh INDIA Sex ratio (females per 1000 males) 846 978 773 709 1058 972 1001 898 933

Age structure of the population • Age structure of the population has great importance for social and economic forecasts. Age structure of the population predetermines the important indicators of demographic loading from the economic point of view that population is parity in the working and non-working (children's and elderly) age. Division into three age groups – 0 -14, 15 -49, 50 years and older– is always relative, but nevertheless it gives a clear enough idea of population reproduction.

Progressive, stationary and regressive types of reproduction of the population • The following types of reproduction of the population are distinguished: progressive, stationary and regressive. Progressive one is considered a type of reproduction of the population in which the share of children at the age of 0 -14 years exceeds a share of the population at the age of 50 years and older. The type at which the share of children is equal to a share of persons at the age of 50 years is called as stationary. It is considered to be regressive type of the population in which the share of persons at the age of 50 years and older exceeds a share of the children's population. The progressive type of reproduction of the population provides population increase, and regressive one threatens the nation depopulation.

Types of reproduction of the population Progressive 50 years and older 15 -49 a working age Under 15 years of age 20 % 50 % 30 % Stationary Regressive 25 % 30 % 50 % 25 % 20 % The share of persons at the three age groups • The population in developing countries is a "young" population; the proportion of persons under 15 years of age is about 32. 6 per. cent, compared to about 20. 2 per cent in developed countries. The proportion of people over 65 years in developing countries is about 5. 1 per cent, compared to 13. 2 per cent in the developed countries.

Population age pattern (Results of 2002 All-Russia populations census) • The population of a working age in Russia numbered 89, 0 million people (or 61%), under a working age – 26, 3 million people (or 18%), and over a working age – 29, 8 million people (or 21%). Thus our country is characterized by regressive type of reproduction of the population when the share of persons over a working age prevails over a share of children up to 15 years that has adverse social and economic consequences: increase in cost of social services and health services, reduction of a total domestic product and, accordingly, the state social insurance package for the population.

The census provides useful demographic and social data about age, language, education, occupation, economic status, place of birth, number of children born alive to a woman, etc. Such data are useful for: • Socioeconomic planning and planning of health and family welfare services. • Finding the growth rate of population. • Calculating the indices like birth, death and morbidity rates.

• • Mechanical movement or migration of the population is the moving of people associated, as a rule, with a change of residence. Migration is subdivided into: irretrievable, that is with a change of permanent residence; temporary, that is resettlement on the long enough, but limited term; seasonal, it. e. moving in certain periods of a year; pendulum, i. e. regular trips to a place of work or study outside the settlement.

Mechanical movement • Besides, there is distinguished an external migration, migration that is migration beyond the bounds of the country, and internal one, one i. e. moving inside the country. To the external migration it is referred emigration, i. e. departure of citizens from the country to other country for a permanent residence or for a long period of time and immigration – entrance from the other country into the given one. • Inter-regional resettlements, as well as resettlement concern an internal migration from village to a city as the important component of process of urbanization. • The urbanization is a process of increase of cities role in society development. Urbanization preconditions are industry growth in cities, development of their cultural and political functions. Characteristic feature of urbanization is influx of agricultural population to cities and increasing pendulum movement of the population from the near-by villages and the nearest towns to large cities (for work, for the cultural and community, material reasons and so forth).

Mechanical movement • Within the last two centuries intensive urbanization process was characteristic for the world's population. Thus, if at the beginning of the XIX century only 3 % of the population of the globe lived in cities, by 1900 their share has increased to 13, 6 %, and by 1950 – to 29, 2 %. At the beginning of the XXI century more than half of world's population lives in cities, and in economically developed countries – more than 80 %. • At present, about 150 million people live outside of their historical native land. In Germany, for example, foreigners make 7, 4 million persons, in France – 4, 3 million (per 61 million inhabitants), almost every fifth (1, 7 million) of 8, 8 million inhabitants of Sweden is the immigrant or his child.

Study of migratory processes has great value for practical public health services, namely: • urbanization process changes ecological conditions, demands revision of necessary volumes of medical aid, change of a network of medical institutions, changes structure, level of morbidity and mortality of the population, influences epidemic conditions of the region, promotes growth of illegitimate birth rate; • pendulum migration increases number of the contacts promoting distribution of infectious diseases, leads to growth of stressful situations, and traumatism; • Seasonal migration leads to non-uniform seasonal loading of establishments of public health services. Indicators of health of migrants essentially differ from indicators of health of indigenous population.

Natural movement (reproduction) of the population is considered as set of processes of birth rate, death rate and a natural increase, providing renewal and alternation of generations. The basic indicators of natural movement of the population are: • • Birth rate, Death rate, Natural increase of the population, Average duration of a forthcoming life.

Birth rate is statistically registered number of childbearings in concrete population for the certain period of time. Birth rate level is defined not only by biological conditions of life (as in fauna), but, first of all, by social and economic ones, ethnic traditions, religious convictions and other factors. For the statistical analysis of birth rate a number of indicators are applied: • The general indicator - birth rate, • Special indicators of birth rate (fertility). Birth rate is the simplest indicator of fertility and is defined as “The number of live births per 1000 estimated mid-year population, in a given year”. It is given by the formula:

Estimation of levels of birth rate is made on the following scale Birth rate level Birth rate per 1000 persons Low under 15 Average 15 - 25 High more than 25 • The world’s birth rate fell bellow 30 for first time around 1975 and had declined to about 22 during 2005. In most of developing countries birth rate level fluctuates from 40 ‰. In developed countries it form 9 -10 ‰. Thus, beginning with the second half of the twentieth century, the worldwide tendency to child-bearings decrease is marked.

Reduction in the birth rates in selected countries, 1970 -2005 Country Bangladesh Pakistan Nepal India Thailand China USA Russian Federation Japan Birth rate 1970 46 43 42 40 37 33 25 16 11 2005 29 36 33 24 18 15 15 10 9

Fertility-related statistics • The birth rate is an unsatisfactory measure of fertility because the total population is not exposed to child bearing. Therefore it does not give a true idea of the fertility of a population. • Special indicators of birth rate are calculated as the relation of number of life berths for a year to average annual number of women of reproductive age (15 -49): • General Fertility Rate (GFR) – it is a number of life births per 1000 women in the reproductive age-group (1549 years) in a given year. Number of life births registered during the year × 1000 Number of women at the age of 15 – 49 years in same year

Fertility-related statistics • Age-specific Fertility Rate – number of live births in a year to 1000 women in any specified age group. Number of life births registered at women of 20 – 24 years × 1000 Number of women at the age of 20 – 24 years Age-specific Fertility Rates – all India (per 1000 women) Age group Urban Rural 15 -19 30 60 20 -24 166 232 25 -29 154 193 30 -34 74 115 35 -39 32 64 40 -44 11 29 45 -49 3 10

Fertility General Marital Fertility Rate (GMFR) – it is the number of life births per 1000 married women in the reproductive age group in a given year. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) – the average number of children falling to one woman of fertile age (15 – 49) years. This measure gives the approximate magnitude of “completed family size”. The question of family size is very important from the demographic point of view. The family planning programmers' campaign is currently based on theme of a “two-child” family norm. Family planning involves both decision regarding the “desired family size” and the effective limitation of fertility once that size has been reached. Information on fertility in India indicates that an average rural woman gives birth to an average 4. 5 children, and average urban women – to an average 3. 1 children. The TFR in USA, Europe is less then 2. 1, and in Russia, Switzerland, Japan is less then 1. 5.

Fertility depends upon several factors. The higher fertility in India is attributed to universality of marriage, lower age at marriage, low level of literacy, poor level of living, limited use of contraceptives and traditional ways of life. Total Fertility Rate for same states of India

Some of the factors which have influence on fertility Age at marriage Education • The age at which a female marries and enters the reproductive period of life has a great impact on her fertility. Females who marry before the age 18 gave birth to a larger number of children than those who married after. • There is an inverse association between fertility and educational status. The total fertility rate is 1. 5 children higher for illiterate women than for women with at least a high school education

Some of the factors which have influence on fertility Economic status • The total number of children born declines with an increase in per capita expenditure of the household. So, economic development is the best contraceptive. Caste and religion • Muslims have a higher fertility than Hindus. The total fertility rate among Christians is lower than Hindus. Among Hindus, the lower castes seem to have a higher fertility than the higher castes.

Some of the factors which have influence on fertility Nutrition • There appears to be some relationship between nutritional status and fertility levels. Virtually, all well-fed societies have low fertility, and poorly fed societies high fertility. The effect of nutrition on fertility is largely indirect. Family planning • Family planning is another important factor in fertility reduction. In a number of developing countries, family planning has been a key factor in declining fertility. Family planning programmers can be initiated rapidly and require only limited resources, as compared to other factors.

Total Fertility Rate by selected background characteristics Background characteristics Residence Education Religion Urban Rural Illiterate Literate Middle school complete High school complete Hindu Muslim Christian Sikh Jain No religion Total Fertility Rate 2. 27 3. 07 3. 47 2. 64 2. 26 1. 99 2. 78 3. 59 2. 44 2. 26 1. 90 3. 91

• One of paradoxes of a world demographic situation consists in the fact that fast growth of a population occurs against the background of considerably decreasing birth rate. Nowadays, world-wide birth rate aspires to an index 2, 1 child per one woman and from this point of view developing countries follow the developed countries more often. Beginning from 2003 the majority of inhabitants of a planet live in the countries or world regions where the total index of birth rate does not exceed 2, 1 children per 1 woman, i. e. the level which corresponds to simple reproduction of generations. The majority of the Indian states uniting in totals about 200 million of inhabitants (among them – the states located in the south of India – Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andrapradej); also have birth rate below level of 2, 1 child per 1 woman. As a rule, demographic changes turn out to be the consequence of economic and social transformations. But in comparison with evolution of birth rate, the latter occur much more slowly, that makes us think of other reasons underlying falling of birth rate, in particular, about changes at the level of ideologies and mentalities.

• About 20 % of mankind keeps birth rate at level of 4 and more children on average per one woman. They are inhabitants of the countries or the regions located mainly in two large geographical areas: the first stretched from Afghanistan through Pakistan to the north of India, and the second covers the most part of Arabian Peninsula and a part of Africa to the south from Sahara. Here, apparently, in the future will be the basic world demographic growth.