Population Theories of Demographic Transition Demographic Transition is

Population Theories of Demographic Transition

�Demographic Transition is the phenomenon of a country’s death and birth rates changing over time from high to low. �Over time, the average family size has decreased in every country of the world. �In approximately 60 countries, the total fertility rate has fallen to less than 2. 1. Canada is one of these countries.

Stage 1: Pre-transition Ø Stable population �High birth rate and death rate �Fertility rate of 8 or more �Extremely high infant mortality rate �Many young children, very few older people �No country in the world is still at the pretransition stage.

Stage 2: Early Transition Ø Very rapid increase in population �Death rate declines rapidly �Fertility rate remains high �Infant mortality rate declines �High birth rate �Many young people �Early Transition is marked by death control

Stage 3: Late Transition Ø Population growth slows down �Birth rate declines rapidly �Death rate declines slowly �Fertility rate declines �Increasing number of older people �Late Transition is marked by birth control

Stage 4: Post-transition Ø Stable or slow population increase �Low birth rate and death rate �Fertility rate less than 2. 1 �Many older people which leads to a high dependency load

Stage 5: ? (doesn’t fit the model, but is happening now!) Ø Declining population �Extremely low birth rate �Death rate is low �Fertility rate less than 2 �A lot of older people �Is it permanent or just a temporary trend? ? ?

Differing Ideas About Population Growth Optimistic vs. Pessimistic

Optimistic Views �Historically, large families and a growing population have been desirable for various reasons. 1. Religious Reasons: More Children = More Followers and More Followers = More Political/Social Power 2. Non-Religious Reasons: Leaders needed larger numbers to support their economic and military expansionist desires.

Cornucopians �Cornucopians believe that humans have the ability to find technological innovations that will increase the earth’s carrying capacity. �The Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions would be their evidence. �A cornucopian may say that the next major human innovation will solve our energy crisis without damaging the environment.

Bogue (1960’s) �D. J Bogue’s theory of demographic regulation stated that over an extended period of time, a society will naturally limit its own population in accordance to the Earth’s ability to support it. �Bogue’s theory is supported by the demographic transition model and in the fact that some countries have tried to limit their population growth in recent years.

Pessimistic Views �Critics have all made the same basic point – Earth is of finite size and has an ability to support only a certain level of population.

Thomas Malthus William Catton �Warned of population problems in his writing in 1798. �Expanded on Malthus’ views in 1980’s. �Pop. grows in a geometric sequence (1, 2, 4, 8, 16. . . ) while food grows arithmetically (1, 2, 3, 4. . . ) �Only result is onset of “misery”. (famine, disease, war) �Introduced idea of Earth’s carrying capacity; it can only be exceeded at the expense of the environment. �Suggests we’re beyond the carrying capacity now only because we’re using up the world’s fixed stock of natural resources for future generations.