GEOL 1600 0 GEOL 3400 GEOL 3650 Human

GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Human Population Resource-Population Models

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Introduction 04 -Mar-21 A teeming street in Kolkata (formerly Calcutta), India visually demonstrates the impact of human population on the natural and built environments. Source: National Geographic (https: //news. nationalgeographic. com/news/2014/09/140920 -population-11 billion-demographicsanthropocene/). 2

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Introduction • resource consumption determined by three factors: – population size – standard of living – technology • as the first two increase, demand for resources also increases – the impact of technology is dual edged • some technologies increase resource use, negative technologies • other technologies decrease resource use, positive technologies 04 -Mar-21 3

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Introduction: Population Size London, England Akha tribal village, northern Thailand 04 -Mar-21 Source: • village: https: //commons. wikimedia. org/wiki/File: Akha_village. jpg • London: https: //commons. wikimedia. org/wiki/File: City_of_London_skyline_from_London_City_Hall_-_Sept_2015_-_Crop_Aligned. jpg 4

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Introduction: Standard of Living Tiananmen Square, Beijing, China, 1984 Shanghai, China, 1991 Source: China’s History of Bicycles, http: //www. theurbancountry. com/2013/02/photos-chinas-history-ofbicycles. html 04 -Mar-21 5

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Introduction: Standard of Living 04 -Mar-21 Beijing, China, 2015 Beijing, China, 2013 Sources: • Daily Mail, http: //www. dailymail. co. uk/news/peoplesdaily/article-3263440/Thousands-motorists-stranded. Beijing-motorway-incredible-50 -lane-traffic-jam-week-long-national-holiday-wraps-up. html • South China Morning Post, http: //www. scmp. com/news/china/article/1298559/beijing-still-struggling-deal-traffic -congestion 6

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Paradigms • some of the main proponents of population-resource models: – Thomas Malthus, English clergy (1766 -1834) – Ester Boserup, Danish economist (1910 -1999) – William Vogt, American ecologist and ornithologist (1902 -1968) – Paul Ehrlich, American biologist (1932 -present) – Club of Rome (Donnella and Dennis Meadows, & Jorgen Randers) – Julian Simon, American economist (1932 -1998) 04 -Mar-21 7

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 neo-Malthusians or Catastrophists • four influential adherents: – Thomas Malthus, English economist and Anglian clergy (1766 -1834) – William Vogt, American ecologist and ornithologist (1902 -1968) – Paul Ehrlich, American biologist (1932 -present) – Club of Rome (Donnella and Dennis Meadows, & Jorgen Randers) • also known as catastrophic environmentalists 04 -Mar-21 8

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Anti-Malthusians or Cornucopian Optimists • two principal promoters: – Ester Boserup, Danish economist (1910 -1999) – Julian Simon, American economist (1932 -1998) 04 -Mar-21 9

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Thomas Robert Malthus "The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man". If population growth not managed and slowed, it will outstrip its food supply basically, maintains once carrying capacity reached, further growth is prevented by checks Thomas R. Malthus (1766 -1834) • English economist and demographer, and Anglican cleric • starting in 1798 published six editions of a very influential book on population and resources • 6 th edition in 1803 was entitled ‘An Essay on the Principle of Population; or A View of the Its Past and Present Effects on Human Happiness with An Inquiry into our Prospects Respecting the Future Removal or Mitigation of the Evils Which It Occasions’ 04 -Mar-21 10

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Thomas Robert Malthus • noted difference in growth curves of population and food supply – population: exponential or geometric growth • 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, … – food supply: linear or arithmetic growth • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, … • because of these fundamental differences, population always outstrip their food supply – once carrying capacity reached, growth is checked by nature or human actions checks on population growth are those initiated by humans • negative checks and slow the birth rate – means of slow growth rate are sexual abstinence, delayed marriage, smaller families – result of moral restraint 04 -Mar-21 11

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Thomas Robert Malthus checks on population growth are imposed by nature and • positive checks increase the death rate – famine, war, disease • subsequent historical evidence has shown that war, even modern, industrial war, is not much of a check on population growth • notice doesn’t predict much chance of growing food supply – in his time, only way to increase food was by planting more land – could be done by: • • draining wet lands reclaiming land from the sea terracing slopes extensive irrigation – some increase could come from deployment of greenhouses 04 -Mar-21 12

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Thomas Robert Malthus 04 -Mar-21 13

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Thomas Robert Malthus 04 -Mar-21 14

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Thomas Robert Malthus 04 -Mar-21 15

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Thomas Robert Malthus • wrote just before the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, which lead to: – better transportation – technologic revolution in agriculture – mechanization • also did not foresee Scientific Revolution – higher crop yields – hardier crops – better birth control 04 -Mar-21 16

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Ester Boserup “The power of ingenuity would always outmatch that of demand". raising production at the cost of more work at lower efficiency is "agricultural intensification". Ester Boserup (1910 -1999) • Danish economist who studied economic and agricultural development • published ‘The Conditions of Agricultural Growth – The Economics of Agrarian Change under Population Pressure’ in 1965 • at University of Copenhagen and worked for U. N. and in Asia and India 04 -Mar-21 17

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Ester Boserup • two ways to look at population growth and food production: – how food production impacts population growth (Malthus) • food supply main factor in controlling rate of population growth • food supply grows only slowly • agricultural productivity is determined by historical change, e. g. land availability, previous agricultural innovation • these lead to population growth – how population change impacts agriculture (Boserup) • suggests population growth stimulates agricultural development and productivity • proposed concept of agricultural intensification – population pressure forces innovations to increase food supply – when population density reaches critical level, new agricultural methods are develop to increase output 04 -Mar-21 18

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Ester Boserup 04 -Mar-21 19

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Ester Boserup • human ingenuity increased food production through: – fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides – improved farming methods and technologies – GM crops with higher yields/acre, increased resistant to disease, improve drought resistance 04 -Mar-21 20

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 William Vogt (1902 -1968) • • 04 -Mar-21 • study the relationship between climate, population and resources in Latin American • linked environmental and overpopulation problems • current trends would lead to future wars, hunger, disease, and civilizational collapse • revived Malthusian theory American ecologist and ornithologist published ‘Road to Survival’ in 1948 advocate of population control founder of 'apocalyptic environmentalism'—the belief that unless humankind drastically reduces consumption and limits population, it will ravage global ecosystems 21

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Paul Ehrlich "The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970 s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate. . . ’. Paul Ehrlich (1932 -present) • American biologist at Stanford University • wrote with his wife (Anne) and published the best selling ‘The Population Bomb’ in 1968 – sold 2 million copies • credits lecture by William Vogt with making him aware of overpopulation problems • outcome of debate on overpopulation in 1950 s and 1960 s 04 -Mar-21 22

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Paul Ehrlich • reviewed the state of the environment and food security – saw little hope of improving food supply • "We must rapidly bring the world population under control, reducing the growth rate to zero or making it negative. Conscious regulation of human numbers must be achieved. Simultaneously we must, at least temporarily, greatly increase our food production. “ • some of his suggestions how U. S. could control its population: – add "temporary sterilants" to water supply or staple foods – tax on additional children at increasing rates for more children – luxury tax on childcare goods – incentives for men who agree to permanent sterilization before they have two children – guarantee right to an abortion, expand sex education – people should choose male offspring to reduce birth rate 04 -Mar-21 23

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Paul Ehrlich – proposed formation of U. S. Department of Population and Environment • "with the power to take whatever steps are necessary to establish a reasonable population size in the United States and to put an end to the steady deterioration of our environment. “ • support research into population control, e. g. better contraceptives, mass sterilizing agents, and prenatal sex discernment (because families often continue to have children until a male is born) • with such an effort, U. S. would be in a position to lead this global effort to slow population growth 04 -Mar-21 24

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Paul Ehrlich • Ehrlich also had suggestions for population control internationally – advocates ‘triage’ system to classify nations and determine food aid – based on countries ability to feed itself • food independent: would have controlled population growth and could become food self-sufficient – could receive food aid • food dependent: would lose food aid, example was to be India 04 -Mar-21 25

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Club of Rome & The Limits to Growth • Club of Rome is a non-government, non-profit organization founded in 1968 – Aurello Peccei, Italian industrialist – Alexander King, Scottish scientist • purpose was to examine the major problems facing humanity and determine how they could be solved – wanted to look at interaction between human and natural systems • first official meeting in Bern, Switzerland • commissioned team from MIT to model human development to: – learn the insight of human systems and any constraints on growth – identify and study primary elements of long-term system behavior 04 -Mar-21 26

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Club of Rome & The Limits to Growth • the study lead to the publication of ‘The Limits to Growth’ in 1972 – authors were Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William W. Behrens III • they represented a team of 17 researchers • translated into 30 languages and sold over 30 million copies • been periodically updated every five years or so: – 1993: Beyond the Limits (20 year update) – 2004: Limits to Growth: The 30 -Year Update – 2012: no update 04 -Mar-21 27

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Club of Rome & Limits to Growth • used ‘World 3’ computer simulation to investigate interactions between human and natural systems – based on computer model of MIT Professor Jay Forrester (World Dynamics) • focused on five primary parameters – population – agricultural production – non-renewable natural resource consumption – industrial production – pollution • altered growth rate of these variables in three scenarios – two result into ‘overshoot and collapse’ – one predicted a stabilized world 04 -Mar-21 28

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Club of Rome & Limits to Growth • historically, duration of a reserve (called R/P) is calculated from: where R is reserve in mass or volume, P is production rate, and is R/P is expressed in years – in 1972, chromium reserves were 775 million mt and amount mined annually was 1. 85 million mt giving a static reserve of 418 years – however, consumption was steadily growing not constant • assuming constant growth rate (r), introduced concept of exponential reserve index: where y = years left, r = continuous compounding growth rate, R=reserve, C=annual consumption, and s=R/C 04 -Mar-21 29

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Club of Rome & Limits to Growth • static reserve assumes constant usage, where exponential reserves assumes constant growth rate 04 -Mar-21 30

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Club of Rome & Limits to Growth declining resources would limit population growth 04 -Mar-21 31

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Club of Rome & Limits to Growth • basic tenant of group is there are biophysical limits to human population growth 04 -Mar-21 32

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Julian L. Simon “-” Julian L, Simon(1932 -1998) • American professor of business administration at University of Illinois at Urbana. Champaign and later at University of Maryland – Senior Fellow at Cato Institute • published ‘The Ultimate Resource’ in 1981 with a revised edition (The Ultimate Resource 2) in 1996 • founder of free-market environmentalism – market or economic solutions can solve environmental problems 04 -Mar-21 33

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Julian Simon • basic tenant is resource scarcity drives up price – creates market incentive to develop new technologies • three ways of reducing scarcity: – extract the resource more effectively – find substitutes – manage society’s demand for resources • some examples of innovations that have increased resource supply – oil: hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling – copper: solvent exchange and electrowinning (SX-EW) has opened up new types of copper deposits as well as other metallic deposits • felt there were economic solutions to resource scarcity 04 -Mar-21 34

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Simon-Ehrlich Wager • Paul Ehrlich in print said "If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000“ • Simon thought this was absurd and in the Social Science Quarterly challenged Ehrlich to a bet – “a public offer to stake US$10, 000. . . on my belief that the cost of nongovernment-controlled raw materials (including grain and oil) will not rise in the long run. “ • according to the bet Ehrlich could pick five resources and a date more than a year away • the resources chosen and wager date – copper, chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten – formalized September 29, 1980 – pay-off date was to be September 29, 1990 (a decade) 04 -Mar-21 35

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Simon-Ehrlich Wager • Ehrlich and colleagues bought $200 of each metal for a total expenditure of $1, 000 – if prices rose, Simon would pay Ehrlich the difference whereas Ehrlich would pay Simon the difference if prices fell – costs would be inflation adjusted • during time of wager, world’s population grew by 800 million – biggest decadal increase in history • on pay-off date, prices of all five metals were down – Cr: $3. 90/lb dropped to $3. 70/lb – Sn: $8. 72/lb dropped to $3. 88/lb • Ehrlich payed Simon $576. 07 for having lost the wager 04 -Mar-21 36

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Simon-Ehrlich Wager • What does the wager tell us about future resource scarcity and the potential fate of the world’s population? – not much!!!! • indicates more about economic market behavior than carrying capacity limits • tired to arrange a second bet, but didn’t succeed – Ehrlich want to bet on the state of the environment, e. g. CO 2 levels, ozone layer, etc. – Simon wanted to get it based on commodity prices like before 04 -Mar-21 37

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Simon-Ehrlich Divide • both protagonists made totally ridiculous statements: – Simon: we can turn other metals into copper, can support human population growth for thousands of years – Ehrlich: ‘my predictions have all been correct’, no mistakes at all, hundreds of millions have died of famine because of overpopulation, population has exceeded carrying capacity, which is 1. 5 -2 billion • lots of famines in 20 th Century – – – – – 1921 – Soviet Union – 5 million 1932 -1933 – Soviet Union and Ukraine – 7 -10 million 1943 – Bengal – 1. 5 -7 million 1959 -1961 – China – 15 -43 million 1957 -1970 – Nigeria (Biafra) 1968 -1972 – Sahel – 1 million 1972 -1973 – Ethiopia – 60, 000 1991 -1992 – Somalia – 300, 000 2011 -2012 – Somalia – 285, 000 (drought) • none of these famines were associated with food shortage due to population growth 04 -Mar-21 38

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Simon-Ehrlich Divide • another bet in 2002, investment banker Matthew Simmons (Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy 2006) wagered $5, 000 with Rita Simon and journalist John Tierney that in 2010 average global oil prices would be over $200/b – at time of bet it was $65/b – in 2010, it was $80/b 04 -Mar-21 39

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Catastrophists – Basic Tenants 04 -Mar-21 40

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Cornucopians – Basic Tenants 04 -Mar-21 41

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Carrying Capacity’s Importance • • 04 -Mar-21 all models implicitly assume Earth has a carrying capacity with respect to human population • population increases according to a logistic growth model difference between two camps is the nature of the carrying capacity • Malthusian – fixed carrying capacity • anti-Malthusian – carrying capacity can be changed by innovation 42

Human Population: Resource-Population Models GEOL 1600 - 0 GEOL 3400 - GEOL 3650 Summary • I think a few lines from the last page of Paul Sabin’s book ‘The Bet – Paul Ehrlich, Julian Simon, and Our Gamble over Earth’s Future’ (2013) sums up this debate very well – the antagonists ‘stark framing of the future as either apocalyptic or utopian makes the conversation [about the future] almost impossible. ’ – ‘Our task is not to choose between these competing perspectives, but rather to find ways to wrestle with their tensions and uncertainties, and to take what each offers that is of value. ’ “Ultimately, humanity’s course will be determined …. . more by the social and political choices that we make. Neither biology nor economics can substitute for the deeper ethical question: What kind of world do we desire? ” Paul Sabin, The Bet 04 -Mar-21 43