Economic Profile Region 10 Uric Dufrene Sanders Chair

Economic Profile: Region 10 Uric Dufrene Sanders Chair in Business IU Southeast

Outline • • Demographics Commuting patterns Employment and labor force Compensation Retail sales activity Historical long term growth Recent economic performance

DEMOGRAPHICS

Region 10 • • • Crawford Clark Floyd Harrison Scott Washington

Population Region 10 Population over Time Rank in Percent of State Indiana 10 4. 30% 6, 080, 485 Yesterday (2000) Number 262, 546 Today (2009) 282, 672 10 4. 40% 6, 417, 276 Tomorrow (2015 projection) 289, 059 10 4. 40% 6, 581, 875 Percent Change 2000 to Today Source: STATS Indiana 7. 70% 2 5. 50%

Population by Age Region 10 Population Estimates by Age, 2009 Pct Dist. Number 18, 155 Rank of 11 9 in Region 6. 40% in State 6. 90% School Age (5 to 17) 48, 765 9 17. 30% 17. 80% College Age (18 to 24) 22, 498 11 8. 00% 10. 00% Young Adult (25 to 44) 77, 387 9 27. 40% 26. 30% Older Adult (45 to 64) 78, 609 9 27. 80% 26. 00% Seniors (65 and older) 37, 101 10 13. 10% 12. 90% Preschool (0 to 4) Source: STATS Indiana

Race and Ethnicity Region 10 Population Estimates by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2009 Number Rank of 11 695 10 American Indian or Alaska Native Alone Pct Dist. in Region 0. 20% Pct Dist. in State 0. 30% Asian Alone Black Alone Native Hawaiian and Other Pac. Isl. Alone 1, 770 12, 715 105 11 8 10 0. 60% 4. 50% 0. 00% 1. 50% 9. 20% 0. 10% White Two or More Race Groups 263, 963 3, 267 10 9 93. 40% 1. 20% 87. 80% 1. 20% Hispanic or Latino Origin (can be of any race) Non-Hispanic 276, 019 6, 496 Source: STATS Indiana 10 8 97. 70% 2. 30% 94. 50% 5. 50%

Household Types Region 10 Pct Dist. Number Rank of 11 in Region 110, 606 10 100. 00% in State 100. 00% Household Types Households in 2009 (includes detail not shown below) Married With Children 22, 598 11 20. 40% 21. 20% Married Without Children 34, 727 10 31. 40% 29. 80% Single Parents 11, 486 10. 40% 9. 80% Living Alone 29, 357 26. 50% 27. 30% 9 Source: STATS Indiana

Income and Poverty Region 10 Income and Poverty Per Capita Personal Income (annual) in 2009 Percent of Number Rank of 11 State $32, 615 4 95. 90% Indiana $34, 022 Welfare (TANF) Monthly Average Families in 2010 1, 395 7 4. 50% 30, 864 Food Stamp Recipients in 2010 35, 488 9 4. 30% 829, 907 Free and Reduced Fee Lunch Recipients in 2009 18, 932 9 4. 30% 436, 945 Source: STATS Indiana

School Enrollments Region 10 60, 000 48, 490 50, 000 44, 385 40, 000 Total Enrollment 30, 000 Total Private 20, 000 10, 000 3, 149 2, 222 0 2001 2011 Source: STATS Indiana

Education Attainment Rates by SI County Change from 1990 to 2000 90 IN = 82. 1 (HS) 80 70 60 50 HS 2000 HS 1990 40 BS 2000 BS 1990 30 IN=19. 4% (BS) 20 10 0 Clark County Floyd County Harrison County Jackson County Jefferson County Jennings County Orange County Scott County Washington County Source: STATS Indiana

COMMUTING PATTERNS

Clark Commuting Source: STATS Indiana

Floyd Commuting Source: STATS Indiana

Washington Commuting Source: STATS Indiana

Harrison Commuting Source: STATS Indiana

Crawford Commuting Source: STATS Indiana

Scott Commuting Source: STATS Indiana

EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE

Labor Force Distribution 2011 13543 5260 10675 Crawford Clark 55818 19249 Floyd Harrison Scott Washington 37520

Payrolls by County 2010 Q 4 5446 6362 Clark 11035 Crawford 46927 Floyd Harrison Scott Washington 28472 1944

Region 10 Payrolls Natural Resources and Mining 3, 077 Construction 4, 450 Manufacturing 12, 038 16, 608 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information 9, 279 Financial Activities Professional and Business Services 7, 052 4, 126 701 21, 029 Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services

uc at Ed s es y lit ice vic er r S he Ot rv es vic sp ita Ho d e an su r Le i Se lth He a d an er es s S sin es n io iti ct iv l A cia an Bu nd io n l a na sio of es Pr at rm fo til iti es nd U In n, a g rin n ct io ru ac tu uf an M tio Fin rta po ns ra , T de Tr a ns t Co in in g M d rc es an ou es l R ra tu Na Location Quotients Influence of industry in county relative to nation 3. 5 3 2. 5 2 1. 5 Floyd 1 Harrison Washington 0. 5 Crawford Clark 0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Non Farm Payrolls Recession Start to Now 60000 50000 40000 30000 2007 Q 4 20000 2010 Q 4 10000 0 Clark Crawford Floyd Harrison Scott Source: STATS Indiana Washington

Non Farm Payroll Levels Region 10 106, 000 105, 000 104, 000 5, 000 Decline 103, 000 102, 000 101, 000 100, 000 99, 000 98, 000 97, 000 96, 000 2001 Q 4 2002 Q 4 2003 Q 4 2004 Q 4 2005 Q 4 2006 Q 4 Source: STATS Indiana 2007 Q 4 2008 Q 4 2009 Q 4 2010 Q 4

Non-farm Payroll Levels SI Metro Counties 97, 000 96, 000 95, 000 94, 000 93, 000 92, 000 91, 000 90, 000 89, 000 88, 000 87, 000 2001 Q 4 2002 Q 4 2003 Q 4 2004 Q 4 2005 Q 4 2006 Q 4 2007 Q 4 2008 Q 4 2009 Q 4 2010 Q 4

COMPENSATION

Total Compensation $227, 582, 000 $269, 937, 000 Clark $454, 098, 000 Crawford $2, 191, 225, 000 Floyd Harrison Scott Washington $1, 348, 775, 000 $71, 668, 000 Source: STATS Indiana

Total Compensation Per Job $50, 000 $45, 000 $44, 019 $43, 513 $40, 000 $39, 140 $39, 708 Harrison Scott $38, 268 $34, 522 $35, 000 $30, 000 $25, 000 $20, 000 $15, 000 $10, 000 $5, 000 $0 Clark Crawford Floyd Source: STATS Indiana Washington

Change in Compensation Per Job $50, 000 $45, 000 $40, 000 $44, 019 $43, 513 $37, 246 $36, 953 $34, 522 $32, 082 $35, 000 $39, 708 $39, 140 $35, 356 $33, 360 $38, 268 $32, 718 $30, 000 $25, 000 2003 $20, 000 2009 $15, 000 $10, 000 $5, 000 $0 Clark Crawford Floyd Harrison Source: STATS Indiana Scott Washington

RETAIL SALES ACTIVITY

Retail Sales, Region 10 $8, 000, 000 $7, 000, 000 $6, 000, 000 $5, 000, 000 $4, 000, 000 $3, 000, 000 $2, 000, 000 $1, 000, 000 $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: STATS Indiana

Retail Sales by County $167, 392, 000 $485, 904, 000 Clark Crawford $395, 602, 000 $1, 981, 754, 244 Floyd Harrison Washington $1, 410, 671, 477 Scott Source: STATS Indiana

Food Stamp Recipients Region 10 40, 000 35, 000 30, 000 25, 000 20, 000 15, 000 10, 000 5, 000 0 Oct 02 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 May -11

LONG TERM GROWTH

Shift Share Analysis • Allows us to determine county performance of specific sectors, relative to the nation and industry. • Does the area enjoy any local competitive advantage?

Leading Sectors by County 1999 to 2009 Relative to national and industry growth 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Clark Mfg. Clark Fin'l Clark P. B. S. Clark Floyd P. B. S. Floyd Educ. Floyd Trans. Floyd Mfg. Harrison Scott Educ. Activities Leisure Health Serv. & Ware. P. B. S. Health Serv. Hosp. Georgiastats. uga. edu

Did not keep pace by county 1999 to 2009 -1000 -1200 -1400 Washington Trade, Trans. Util. -800 Washington Leisure & Hosp. -600 Washington Mfg. -400 Scott Public Admin. -200 Scott P. B. S. Harrison Leisure Hosp. Harrison Mfg. Floyd Public Admin. Clark Trade, Trans. Util. Clark Public Admin. Clark Educ. Health Georgiastats. uga. edu -1600 Clark Const. 0

RECENT ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

May-11 Mar-11 Jan-11 Nov-10 Sep-10 Jul-10 May-10 Mar-10 Jan-10 Nov-09 Sep-09 Jul-09 May-09 Mar-09 Jan-09 Nov-08 Sep-08 Jul-08 May-08 Mar-08 Jan-08 Nov-07 Sep-07 Jul-07 May-07 Mar-07 Jan-07 Nov-06 Sep-06 Jul-06 May-06 Mar-06 Jan-06 Labor Force Region 10 152, 000 150, 000 148, 000 146, 000 144, 000 142, 000 140, 000 138, 000 136, 000 134, 000 132, 000

May-11 Mar-11 Jan-11 Nov-10 Sep-10 Jul-10 May-10 Mar-10 Jan-10 Nov-09 Sep-09 Jul-09 May-09 Mar-09 Jan-09 Nov-08 Sep-08 Jul-08 May-08 Mar-08 Jan-08 Nov-07 Sep-07 Jul-07 May-07 Mar-07 Jan-07 Nov-06 Sep-06 Jul-06 May-06 Mar-06 Jan-06 Employment Region 10 145, 000 140, 000 135, 000 130, 000 125, 000 120, 000 Source: STATS Indiana 115, 000

May-11 Mar-11 Jan-11 Nov-10 Sep-10 Jul-10 May-10 Mar-10 Jan-10 Nov-09 Sep-09 Jul-09 May-09 Mar-09 Jan-09 Nov-08 Sep-08 Jul-08 May-08 Mar-08 Jan-08 Nov-07 Sep-07 Jul-07 May-07 Mar-07 Jan-07 Nov-06 Sep-06 Jul-06 May-06 Mar-06 Jan-06 Unemployed Region 10 18, 000 16, 000 14, 000 12, 000 10, 000 8, 000 6, 000 4, 000 2, 000 Source: STATS Indiana 0

Source: STATS Indiana May-11 Mar-11 Jan-11 Nov-10 Sep-10 Jul-10 May-10 Mar-10 Jan-10 Nov-09 Sep-09 Jul-09 May-09 Mar-09 Jan-09 Nov-08 Sep-08 Jul-08 May-08 Mar-08 Jan-08 Nov-07 Sep-07 Jul-07 May-07 Mar-07 Jan-07 Nov-06 Sep-06 Jul-06 May-06 Mar-06 Jan-06 Unemployment Rate Region 10 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Non-farm Payrolls SI Metro Counties 97, 000 96, 000 95, 000 94, 000 93, 000 92, 000 91, 000 90, 000 89, 000 88, 000 87, 000 2001 Q 4 2002 Q 4 2003 Q 4 Source: STATS Indiana 2004 Q 4 2005 Q 4 2006 Q 4 2007 Q 4 2008 Q 4 2009 Q 4 2010 Q 4

Non Farm Payrolls Region 10 106, 000 105, 000 104, 000 103, 000 102, 000 101, 000 100, 000 99, 000 98, 000 97, 000 96, 000 2001 Q 4 2002 Q 4 2003 Q 4 2004 Q 4 2005 Q 4 2006 Q 4 2007 Q 4 2008 Q 4 2009 Q 4 2010 Q 4 Source: STATS Indiana

LOUISVILLE METRO

Unemployment Rates

Louisville Metro Payrolls Year on Year

Payrolls: National and L’ville (blue) Year over year Percent Change

Consumer Confidence and L’ville Employment(red)

Auto Sales Picking Up ?

More cars, More employment for Louisville (red)

Durable Goods Orders

Durable Goods and L’ville Employment (red)

National Manufacturing Index Louisville Employment (blue)

Thank You udufrene@ius. edu