Capers Jones Associates LLC SOFTWARE SIZING AND COST

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Capers Jones & Associates LLC SOFTWARE SIZING AND COST ESTIMATING IN 2011 Capers Jones,

Capers Jones & Associates LLC SOFTWARE SIZING AND COST ESTIMATING IN 2011 Capers Jones, President Quality Seminar: talk 4 Web: http: //www. spr. com Email: Cpers. Jones 3@gmail. com Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. June 11, 2011 COSTEST1

Four Key Areas That Influence Software Cost Estimates Technology Personnel Software Quality and Productivity

Four Key Areas That Influence Software Cost Estimates Technology Personnel Software Quality and Productivity Processes Environment Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST2

COMPARISON OF TWO MAJOR TOOL CLASSES COST ESTIMATION PROJECT MANAGEMENT Expert systems Calculation tools

COMPARISON OF TWO MAJOR TOOL CLASSES COST ESTIMATION PROJECT MANAGEMENT Expert systems Calculation tools (rule-based) (algorithm-based) Embedded knowledge Requires expert users Software oriented General purpose Information systems Construction Military systems Engineering Embedded systems Manufacturing Commercial systems Defense Supports sizing No sizing support Supports quality No quality support Supports GANTT charts at phase and activity levels Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. Supports PERT and CPM nets down to worker level COSTEST3

SYNERGY BETWEEN TOOL CLASSES SOFTWARE COST ESTIMATING • • Sizing of all project deliverables

SYNERGY BETWEEN TOOL CLASSES SOFTWARE COST ESTIMATING • • Sizing of all project deliverables Quality and reliability modeling Tool and process modeling Adjustments for programming languages. PROJECT MANAGEMENT • • • Critical path analysis Task-level scheduling Individual job assignments Progress monitoring Cost accumulation Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST4

HOW IMPORTANT IS PROJECT MANAGEMENT? SUCCESSFUL CANCELED ACTIVITY PROJECTS Sizing Good Poor Planning Very

HOW IMPORTANT IS PROJECT MANAGEMENT? SUCCESSFUL CANCELED ACTIVITY PROJECTS Sizing Good Poor Planning Very Good Very Poor Estimating Very Good Very Poor Milestone tracking Good Very Poor Measurement Good Very Poor Change control Excellent Poor Quality Excellent Very Poor Risk Analysis Good Very Poor Overall Very Good Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. Very Poor COSTEST5

ESTIMATING PRINCIPLES SIZING: ATTRIBUTES: ESTIMATES: Function points Source code Documents Defect removal Project Constraints

ESTIMATING PRINCIPLES SIZING: ATTRIBUTES: ESTIMATES: Function points Source code Documents Defect removal Project Constraints Team Technology Environment Staffing Schedules Effort Costs Quality X Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. = COSTEST6

THIRTY-FIVE FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE SOFTWARE Classification Factors 1. Project nature (new, enhancement, maintenance, etc.

THIRTY-FIVE FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE SOFTWARE Classification Factors 1. Project nature (new, enhancement, maintenance, etc. ) 2. Project scope (module, object, program, system, class, etc. ) 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Project topology (stand-alone, client-server, distributed, etc. ) Project class (civilian, military, in-house, contract, etc. ) Project type (Batch, interactive, systems, embedded, etc. ) Hardware platform (mainframe, mini, PC, custom, etc. ) Software platform (Linux, Mac OS, MVS, Windows Vista, etc. ) Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST7

THIRTY-FIVE FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE SOFTWARE Project Factors 8. Size of the project (function points,

THIRTY-FIVE FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE SOFTWARE Project Factors 8. Size of the project (function points, LOC, deliverables) 9. Complexity of the project (cyclomatic, algorithmic, etc. ) 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. Constraints of the project (schedule, security, etc. ) Novelty of the project (new, repeat, hybrid, etc. ) Value of the project (strategic, high, moderate, etc. ) Risks of the project (litigation, competition, markets, etc. ) Rate of creeping requirements (change % per month) Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST8

THIRTY-FIVE FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE SOFTWARE Technology Factors 15. Any formal methodology used (Extreme, RUP,

THIRTY-FIVE FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE SOFTWARE Technology Factors 15. Any formal methodology used (Extreme, RUP, etc. ) 16. Project management tools used for the application 17. Development tools used for the application 18. Defect prevention approaches used (JAD, QFD, TQM, etc. ) 19. Defect removal operations and tools used (design reviews, code inspections, tests, etc. ) 20. Programming language(s) used 21. Volume of reusable materials available and used Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST9

THIRTY-FIVE FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE SOFTWARE Social and Ergonomic Factors 22. Experience and skill of

THIRTY-FIVE FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE SOFTWARE Social and Ergonomic Factors 22. Experience and skill of the project managers 23. Experience and skill of the development team 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. Experience and cooperation of the clients Organization and specialization applied to the project Office space and office ergonomics Targets or goals set for the project by clients or executives SEI CMM capability level of development organization Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST10

THIRTY-FIVE FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE SOFTWARE When international projects are considered, a significant new set

THIRTY-FIVE FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE SOFTWARE When international projects are considered, a significant new set of factors is added to the list that must be evaluated and dealt with. International Factors 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Local laws or union regulations that affect software projects Communication channels between clients, developers Translations of screens, documents into multiple languages Variations in public holidays and vacation periods Variations in staff compensation levels in different countries Variations in national work habits in different countries Variations in currency exchange rates among countries Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST11

LARGE SYSTEM SOFTWARE COST FACTORS Applications > 10, 000 function points: 1. Finding and

LARGE SYSTEM SOFTWARE COST FACTORS Applications > 10, 000 function points: 1. Finding and fixing defects. 2. Producing paper documents. 3. Meetings and communication. 4. Coding or programming. 5. Project management. 6. Change control. Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST12

SMALL PROGRAM SOFTWARE COST FACTORS Applications < 1, 000 function points: 1. Finding and

SMALL PROGRAM SOFTWARE COST FACTORS Applications < 1, 000 function points: 1. Finding and fixing defects. 2. Coding or programming. 3. Project management 4. Producing paper documents. 5. Meetings and communication. 6. Change control. Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST13

AGILE SOFTWARE COST FACTORS Applications < 1, 500 function points: 1. Finding and fixing

AGILE SOFTWARE COST FACTORS Applications < 1, 500 function points: 1. Finding and fixing defects. 2. Coding or programming. 3. Meetings and communications. 4. Project management 5. Change control. 6. Producing paper documents. Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST14

SOFTWARE COST ESTIMATION TOOLS TOOL YEAR AVAILABLE PRICE-S 1973 RCA SEER 1974 Hughes SLIM

SOFTWARE COST ESTIMATION TOOLS TOOL YEAR AVAILABLE PRICE-S 1973 RCA SEER 1974 Hughes SLIM 1979 Air Force COCOMO 1981 TRW SPQR/20 1985 SPR CHECKPOINT - CHECKMARK 1989 KNOWLEDGEPLAN 1995 COCOMO II 1995 USC ISBSG 2005 ISBSG SOFTWARE RISK MASTER 2008 Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. ORGANIZATION SPR Capers Jones COSTEST15

Software Function Point Metrics: 1979 to 2011 • In 1979 IBM put function point

Software Function Point Metrics: 1979 to 2011 • In 1979 IBM put function point metrics in the public domain. Function points are now key metrics for sizing and estimating. • Function points are weighted totals of five external factors: Factor Number of Inputs Number of Outputs Number of Inquiries Number of Logical files Number of Interfaces Number 10 10 50 5 10 Unadjusted function points Complexity adjustment multiplier Adjusted function points Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. Weight X 5 X 4 X 5 X 10 X 7 TOTAL = = = 50 40 250 50 70 _____ 460 1. 2 552 COSTEST16

KEY ESTIMATING DEFINITIONS ASSIGNMENT SCOPE Amount of work assigned to one person PRODUCTION RATE

KEY ESTIMATING DEFINITIONS ASSIGNMENT SCOPE Amount of work assigned to one person PRODUCTION RATE Amount of work accomplished in a standard time period OVERLAP The percent of a task not finished when a follow-on task begins SCHEDULE Calendar time required to complete a task REQUIREMENTS “CREEP” Growth rate in unplanned requirements after sign-off DEFECT REMOVAL EFFICIENCY Percentage of defects removed before delivery Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST17

FUNDAMENTAL ESTIMATING EQUATIONS STAFF = SIZE / ASSIGNMENT SCOPE EFFORT = SIZE / PRODUCTION

FUNDAMENTAL ESTIMATING EQUATIONS STAFF = SIZE / ASSIGNMENT SCOPE EFFORT = SIZE / PRODUCTION RATE SCHEDULE = EFFORT / STAFF COST = EFFORT * COMPENSATION BURDENED COST = COSTS + OVERHEAD DEFECTS = POTENTIAL + REMOVAL BAD FIXES Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST18

ESTIMATING EXAMPLES TOPIC ASSIGNMENT SCOPE PRODUCTION RATE Requirements 1500 FP 150 FP per month

ESTIMATING EXAMPLES TOPIC ASSIGNMENT SCOPE PRODUCTION RATE Requirements 1500 FP 150 FP per month Design 1000 FP 75 FP per month Coding 15, 000 LOC 150 FP 2, 500 LOC per month 25 FP per month Testing 200 test cases 1 test/FP 60 tests per month Manuals 250 pages. 25 pages/FP 50 pages per month Personnel 8 employees 40 FP per month Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST19

ASSIGNMENT SCOPE EXAMPLES PROJECT = 10, 000 function points (1, 000 LOC) Requirements: 10,

ASSIGNMENT SCOPE EXAMPLES PROJECT = 10, 000 function points (1, 000 LOC) Requirements: 10, 000 FP / 1, 500 = Design: 10, 000 FP / 1, 000 = 10 designers Coding: programmers 1, 000 LOC / 15, 000 = 66 Testing 10, 000 FP / 200 = 50 testers Manuals: 2, 500 pages / 250 = 10 writers Management: 10, 000 FP / 1, 000 TOTAL Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. 7 analysts = 10 managers 153 personnel COSTEST20

PRODUCTION RATE EXAMPLES PROJECT = 1, 000 LOC (10, 000 Function points) Requirements: 10,

PRODUCTION RATE EXAMPLES PROJECT = 1, 000 LOC (10, 000 Function points) Requirements: 10, 000 FP / 150 = 67 staff months Design: 10, 000 FP / 75 = 133 staff months Coding: 1, 000 LOC / 2, 500 = 400 staff months Testing 10, 000 tests / 60 = 167 staff months Manuals: 2, 500 pages / 50 = 50 staff months Management 10, 000 FP / 40 = 250 staff months TOTAL Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. 1, 067 staff months COSTEST21

SCHEDULING EXAMPLES PROJECT = 1, 000 LOC (10, 000 Function points) Requirements: 67 months

SCHEDULING EXAMPLES PROJECT = 1, 000 LOC (10, 000 Function points) Requirements: 67 months / 7 = 9. 5 calendar months Design: 133 months / 10 = 13. 3 calendar months Coding: 400 months / 66 = 6. 0 calendar months Testing 167 months / 50 = 3. 3 calendar months 50 months / 10 = 5. 0 calendar months 250 months / 10 = 25. 0 calendar months Manuals: Management OVERALL SCHEDULE OVERLAP NET SCHEDULE Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. 36. 5 calendar months 35% 23. 7 calendar months COSTEST22

SCHEDULING OVERLAP EXAMPLE Requirements: Design: Coding: Testing: Manuals: Management: Schedule without overlap (waterfall model)

SCHEDULING OVERLAP EXAMPLE Requirements: Design: Coding: Testing: Manuals: Management: Schedule without overlap (waterfall model) = 36 months Schedule with overlap Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. = 24 months COSTEST23

COST VARIANCES AVERAGE SOFTWARE ENGINEER = $73, 000 PER YEAR AVERAGE SOFTWARE MANAGER =

COST VARIANCES AVERAGE SOFTWARE ENGINEER = $73, 000 PER YEAR AVERAGE SOFTWARE MANAGER = $90, 000 PER YEAR Variance by country = + or - 50% Variance by length of service = + or - 25% Variance by industry = + or - 20% Variance by company size = + or - 17% Variance by geographic region = + or - 15% Variance by occupation = + or - 13% Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST24

COST VARIANCES FOR THE SAME POSITION Position Industry City Annual Salary Programmer Banking Geneva

COST VARIANCES FOR THE SAME POSITION Position Industry City Annual Salary Programmer Banking Geneva $85, 000 Programmer Banking New York $75, 000 Programmer Telecom Chicago $70, 000 Programmer Defense St. Louis $60, 000 Programmer Retail Tampa $55, 000 Programmer Education Biloxi $50, 000 Programmer Software Bombay $15, 000 Programmer Defense Beijing $10, 000 Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST25

REQUIREMENTS “CREEP” FOR SOFTWARE Software Class Monthly Change Maximum Creep Outsourced software 1. 0%

REQUIREMENTS “CREEP” FOR SOFTWARE Software Class Monthly Change Maximum Creep Outsourced software 1. 0% 75% Information systems 1. 5% 125% Systems software 2. 0% 150% Military software 2. 0% 200% Civilian government 2. 5% 200% Commercial software 3. 5% 250% Requirements creep is a common source of schedule and cost overruns, and often leads to litigation. Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST26

EXAMPLE OF SCHEDULE MACRO ESTIMATION Raise the Function Point total of the project to

EXAMPLE OF SCHEDULE MACRO ESTIMATION Raise the Function Point total of the project to the following power. The results will show schedules in calendar months. CLASS OF SOFTWARE BEST AVERAGE Agile software 0. 32 OO software 0. 33 Extreme (XP) 0. 33 Outsource software MIS software 0. 39 Commercial software Systems software Military software 0. 39 0. 43 0. 39 0. 46 0. 43 0. 44 0. 47 0. 38 0. 39 0. 37 0. 41 0. 39 0. 43 0. 45 Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. WORST 0. 45 0. 47 0. 48 0. 50 COSTEST27

50 MANUAL VS. 50 AUTOMATED COST ESTIMATES • Manual estimation works well below 500

50 MANUAL VS. 50 AUTOMATED COST ESTIMATES • Manual estimation works well below 500 function points. • Automation is more accurate above 500 function points • Above 5000 function points manual estimates are dangerous. • Automated estimates usually accurate or conservative. • Manual estimates tend toward excessive optimism. Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST28

ACCURACY RANGES FOR 50 MANUAL ESTIMATES (Projects between 1000 and 10, 000 Function Points)

ACCURACY RANGES FOR 50 MANUAL ESTIMATES (Projects between 1000 and 10, 000 Function Points) Conservative >40% 25% 15% 5% 0 4 -5% -15% 17 -25% 29 Manual estimates are usually very optimistic. <-40% Optimistic Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST29

ACCURACY RANGES FOR 50 AUTOMATED ESTIMATES (Projects between 1000 and 10, 000 Function Points)

ACCURACY RANGES FOR 50 AUTOMATED ESTIMATES (Projects between 1000 and 10, 000 Function Points) Conservative >40% 3 25% 24 15% 5% 22 0 -5% -15% 1 Automated estimates are usually accurate or set to be conservative. -25% <-40% Optimistic Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST30

LEVELS OF SOFTWARE ESTIMATION Level of detail Estimate method Project level Macro estimation Phase

LEVELS OF SOFTWARE ESTIMATION Level of detail Estimate method Project level Macro estimation Phase level Macro estimation Activity level Micro estimation Task level Micro estimation Sub-task level Micro estimation Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST31

PROJECT, PHASE, AND ACTIVITY LEVELS Project Level Project Phase Level 1. Requirements 1. Activity

PROJECT, PHASE, AND ACTIVITY LEVELS Project Level Project Phase Level 1. Requirements 1. Activity Level Requirements 13. Configuration control 2. 3. Analysis 2. Prototyping 14. Integration Design 3. Architecture 15. User documentation 4. Coding 4. Planning 16. 5. Testing 5. Initial design Unit test 17. Function test 6. Installation 6. Detail design 18. Integration test 7. Design review 19. 8. Coding 9. Reused code acquisition 21. 10. Package acquisition 22. Independent test 11. Code inspection 23. Quality Independent verif. & valid. 24. Installation 20. System test Field test Acceptance test assurance Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. 12. COSTEST32

SOFTWARE COST ESTIMATION SEQUENCE 1) Start with Sizing 2) Estimate Quality 3) Estimate Staffing

SOFTWARE COST ESTIMATION SEQUENCE 1) Start with Sizing 2) Estimate Quality 3) Estimate Staffing 4) Adjust for “Soft” Factors 5) Estimate Effort 6) Estimate Schedules 7) Estimate Costs Function Points Specifications Source Code Test Cases User Manuals Defect Potentials Defect Removal Experience, tools, process Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST33

MAJOR SIZING METHODS FOR SOFTWARE • Sizing by “patterns” from similar projects in similar

MAJOR SIZING METHODS FOR SOFTWARE • Sizing by “patterns” from similar projects in similar industries. • Sizing from similar projects in your own enterprise • Sizing deliverables using lines of code (LOC) metrics. • Sizing deliverables using function point metrics. • Early approximate sizing from partial function point data. • Sizing from external attributes (business units, staff days) Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST34

DOCUMENT PAGES PER FUNCTION POINT Systems Software MIS Software Military Commercial Software User requirements

DOCUMENT PAGES PER FUNCTION POINT Systems Software MIS Software Military Commercial Software User requirements 0. 30 0. 45 0. 50 0. 85 Functional specifications 0. 60 0. 80 0. 55 1. 75 Logic specifications 0. 55 0. 85 0. 50 1. 65 Test plans 0. 25 0. 10 0. 55 User tutorial documents 0. 85 0. 30 0. 15 0. 50 User reference documents 0. 90 0. 45 0. 20 0. 85 Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST35

CODE STATEMENTS PER FUNCTION POINT (Range of Source Code Statements Required to Encode One

CODE STATEMENTS PER FUNCTION POINT (Range of Source Code Statements Required to Encode One Function Point) Lowest Median Highest Language Value Ada 83 60 71 Assembly (macro) 130 Basic (Interpreted) 63 C 60 128 C++ 30 90 COBOL 65 107 Fortran 75 105 Pascal 50 91 Java 35 52 87 Program generators 10 Smalltalk 12 Value 80 213 98 170 145 160 157 125 300 135 16 21 20 28 Note: Data available for > 600 programming languages and dialects. Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST36

U. S. NORMS FOR DEFECT REMOVAL EFFICIENCY (Defect potential data expressed in terms of

U. S. NORMS FOR DEFECT REMOVAL EFFICIENCY (Defect potential data expressed in terms of Defects per Function Point) Defect Removal Delivered Origins Potentials Efficiency Defects Requirements Design 1. 25 Coding 1. 75 Document Bad Fixes 1. 00 85% 95% 0. 60 0. 40 77% 0. 19 0. 09 80% 70% Total 85% 0. 75 5. 00 Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. 0. 23 0. 12 COSTEST37

IMPACTS OF FOUR KEY MANAGEMENT FACTORS SIXTEEN PERMUTATIONS OF FOUR FACTORS: • MANUAL VERSUS

IMPACTS OF FOUR KEY MANAGEMENT FACTORS SIXTEEN PERMUTATIONS OF FOUR FACTORS: • MANUAL VERSUS AUTOMATED COST ESTIMATING. • MANUAL VERSUS AUTOMATED SCHEDULING. • FORMAL VERSUS INFORMAL MILESTONE TRACKING. • FORMAL VERSUS INFORMAL QUALITY CONTROL. Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST38

PROJECT MANAGEMENT IMPACT Worst-case Scenario Probability of Selected Outcomes Cancel Delays On time Early

PROJECT MANAGEMENT IMPACT Worst-case Scenario Probability of Selected Outcomes Cancel Delays On time Early 1) Manual estimates 40% Manual plans Informal tracking Minimal quality control 45% 15% 0% NOTE: Assume a 10, 000 function point system. Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST39

PROJECT MANAGEMENT (cont. ) Single-factor Scenario Probability of Selected Outcomes Cancel Delays On time

PROJECT MANAGEMENT (cont. ) Single-factor Scenario Probability of Selected Outcomes Cancel Delays On time Early 2) Manual estimates 37% 42% 20% 1% Automated plans Informal tracking Minimal quality control 3) Manual estimates Manual plans Formal tracking Minimal quality control 35% 39% 24% 2% 4) Automated estimates Manual plans Informal tracking Minimal quality control 33% 36% 28% 3% 5) Manual estimates Manual plans Informal tracking Optimal quality control 30% 32% 34% 4% Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST40

PROJECT MANAGEMENT (cont. ) Two-factor Scenario Probability of Selected Outcomes Cancel Delays On time

PROJECT MANAGEMENT (cont. ) Two-factor Scenario Probability of Selected Outcomes Cancel Delays On time Early 6) Manual estimates Automated plans Formal tracking Minimal quality control 27% 28% 40% 5% 7) Automated estimates Automated plans Informal tracking Minimal quality control 23% 26% 45% 6% 8) Automated estimates Manual plans Formal tracking Minimal quality control 20% 23% 50% 7% Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST41

PROJECT MANAGEMENT (cont. ) Two-factor Scenario Probability of Selected Outcomes Cancel Delays On time

PROJECT MANAGEMENT (cont. ) Two-factor Scenario Probability of Selected Outcomes Cancel Delays On time Early 9) Manual estimates Automated plans Informal tracking Optimal quality control 18% 20% 54% 8% 10) Manual estimates Manual plans Formal tracking Optimal quality control 16% 17% 58% 9% 11) Automated estimates Manual plans Informal tracking Optimal quality control 13% 15% 62% 10% Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST42

PROJECT MANAGEMENT (cont. ) Three-factor Scenario Probability of Selected Outcomes Cancel Delays On time

PROJECT MANAGEMENT (cont. ) Three-factor Scenario Probability of Selected Outcomes Cancel Delays On time Early 12) Automated estimates Automated plans Formal tracking Minimal quality control 10% 12% 67% 11% 13) Manual estimates Automated plans Formal tracking Optimal quality control 8% 10% 69% 13% 14) Automated estimates Manual plans Formal tracking Optimal quality control 5% 8% 72% 15) Automated estimates Automated plans Manual tracking Optimal quality control 3% 6% 74% 17% Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST43

PROJECT MANAGEMENT (cont. ) Best-case Scenario Probability of Selected Outcomes Cancel Delays On time

PROJECT MANAGEMENT (cont. ) Best-case Scenario Probability of Selected Outcomes Cancel Delays On time Early 16) Automated estimates Automated plans Formal tracking Optimal quality control 1% 2% 78% 19% • Good project management is the key to software success. • Bad project management leads to software failures. Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST44

FUNCTION POINTS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT TOOLS SELECTED TOOLS 1 Project planning 2 Cost estimating

FUNCTION POINTS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT TOOLS SELECTED TOOLS 1 Project planning 2 Cost estimating 3 Project office 4 Statistical analysis 5 Personnel mgt. 6 Quality estimating 7 Process Assessment 8 Risk analysis 9 Value analysis 10 Department budgets TOTALS TOOLS USED Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. Lagging Average 1, 000 ---500 ----500 1, 500 300 -750 1, 000 -500 -250 700 3, 000 2, 000 1, 500 1, 000 2, 000 5, 000 22, 000 3 7 Leading 10 COSTEST45

STRUCTURES OF SOFTWARE PROJECTS PROJECT CLASSES, TYPES, AND SIZES ARE DIFFERENT • Military specifications

STRUCTURES OF SOFTWARE PROJECTS PROJECT CLASSES, TYPES, AND SIZES ARE DIFFERENT • Military specifications > 3 times larger than civilian specifications. • Military staffs > 30% larger for same size project than civilian. • Systems software testing costs > 20% more than MIS projects. • Systems software testing > 20% more effective than MIS testing. • Outsource project staffs >10% larger than in-house projects. Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST46

MAJOR SOFTWARE CLASSES IN 2008 U. S. Software Production System Software Information Systems 26%

MAJOR SOFTWARE CLASSES IN 2008 U. S. Software Production System Software Information Systems 26% 52% Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. Military Software 22% COSTEST47

MAJOR SOFTWARE FOCUS IN 2008 U. S. Software Development vs. Maintenance New Development 28%

MAJOR SOFTWARE FOCUS IN 2008 U. S. Software Development vs. Maintenance New Development 28% Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. Enhancements 42% Maintenance 30% COSTEST48

OVERALL U. S. SOFTWARE PRODUCTIVITY Figure 3 -3 Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones.

OVERALL U. S. SOFTWARE PRODUCTIVITY Figure 3 -3 Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST49

DISTRIBUTION OF U. S. IT SOFTWARE PRODUCTIVITY Figure 3 -4 Copyright © 2011 by

DISTRIBUTION OF U. S. IT SOFTWARE PRODUCTIVITY Figure 3 -4 Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST50

DISTRIBUTION OF U. S. IT SOFTWARE PRODUCTIVITY Agile Zone Avg. = 18 Figure 3

DISTRIBUTION OF U. S. IT SOFTWARE PRODUCTIVITY Agile Zone Avg. = 18 Figure 3 -4 Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST51

SYSTEMS & EMBEDDED SOFTWARE PRODUCTIVITY SYSTEM SOFTWARE ZONE 0 1 2 4 8 16

SYSTEMS & EMBEDDED SOFTWARE PRODUCTIVITY SYSTEM SOFTWARE ZONE 0 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 Function Points per Staff Month Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST52

U. S. SYSTEMS SOFTWARE PRODUCTIVITY Object-Oriented Software Avg. = 18 Figure 3 -5 Copyright

U. S. SYSTEMS SOFTWARE PRODUCTIVITY Object-Oriented Software Avg. = 18 Figure 3 -5 Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST53

U. S. MILITARY SOFTWARE PRODUCTIVITY MILITARY ZONE 0 1 2 3 4 8 16

U. S. MILITARY SOFTWARE PRODUCTIVITY MILITARY ZONE 0 1 2 3 4 8 16 32 64 Function Points per Staff Month Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST54

SOFTWARE QUALITY IMPROVEMENT Defects per FP . Malpractice . U. S. Average . Best

SOFTWARE QUALITY IMPROVEMENT Defects per FP . Malpractice . U. S. Average . Best in Class Defect Removal Efficiency Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST55

SOFTWARE QUALITY IMPROVEMENT (cont. ) Defects per FP . Malpractice . U. S. Average

SOFTWARE QUALITY IMPROVEMENT (cont. ) Defects per FP . Malpractice . U. S. Average . Telecommunications . Best in Class Defect Removal Efficiency Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST56

SOFTWARE QUALITY IMPROVEMENT (cont. ) Defects per FP . Malpractice . . U. S.

SOFTWARE QUALITY IMPROVEMENT (cont. ) Defects per FP . Malpractice . . U. S. Average Object-oriented . Best in Class Defect Removal Efficiency Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST57

SOFTWARE QUALITY IMPROVEMENT (cont. ) Defects per FP . Malpractice . U. S. Average

SOFTWARE QUALITY IMPROVEMENT (cont. ) Defects per FP . Malpractice . U. S. Average . Extreme (XP) . Best in Class Defect Removal Efficiency Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST58

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS • Software estimating is important • Software estimating is complex •

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS • Software estimating is important • Software estimating is complex • Automated estimates more accurate than manual • Function points make estimating easier • High-speed function points allow early estimates • Lines of code are inadequate and hazardous • Good estimates help successful projects • Bad estimates lead to disasterates Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. COSTEST59

REFERENCES TO SOFTWARE COST ESTIMATING Boehm, Dr. Barry; Software Engineering Economics; Prentice Hall, 1981.

REFERENCES TO SOFTWARE COST ESTIMATING Boehm, Dr. Barry; Software Engineering Economics; Prentice Hall, 1981. Garmus, David & Herron David, Function Point Analysis, Addison Wesley, 2001. Jones, Capers; The Economics of Software Quality; Addison Wesley; 2011 (July) Jones, Capers; Software Engineering Best Practices; Mc. Graw Hill, 2010 Jones, Capers; Applied Software Measurement; 3 rd edition; Mc. Graw Hill, 2008. Jones, Capers; Assessments, Benchmarks, and Best Practices; Addison Wesley, 2000. Jones, Capers; Estimating Software Costs; 2 nd edition; Mc. Graw Hill, 2007. Kan, Steve; Metrics and Models in Software Quality Engineering, Addison Wesley, 2003. Mc. Connell, Steve; Software Estimating-Demystifying the Black Art; Microsoft Press, 2006. Pressman, Roger; Software Engineering – A Practitioners Approach; Mc. Graw Hill, 2005. Putnam, Larry; Measures for Excellence; Yourdon Press, Prentice Hall, 1992. Strassmann, Paul; Information Productivity; Information Economics Press, 1999. Web sites: ITMPI. ORG SPR. com SEI. org IFPUG. ORG ISBSG. org Copyright © 2011 by Capers Jones. All Rights Reserved. PMI. org COSTEST60