MEDCSP Concentrating Solar Power for the Mediterranean Region

MED-CSP Concentrating Solar Power for the Mediterranean Region WP 1: Sustainability Goals WP 2: Renewable Energy Technologies WP 3: Renewable Energy Resources WP 4: Demand Side Analysis WP 5: Scenario & Market Strategies WP 6: Socio-Economical Impacts WP 7: Environmental Impacts

Assessment of Renewable Electricity Potentials The threshold for economic performance is defined by “Renewable Energy Performance Indicators” like e. g. the annual full load hours of Hydropower, the Direct Normal Irradiation for CSP or Global Irradiation on a tilted surface for PV. Together with the specific investment cost, and other costing parameters, those indicators define the cost of electricity. Hydropower: Technical and economic potentials were taken from the literature. The annual full load hours of plants installed at present are used as performance indicator. The map of gross hydropower potentials is only used for illustration. Geothermal Power: A map of temperatures at 5000 m depth was taken to assess the areas with temperatures higher than 180°C as economic potential for Hot Dry Rock technology. Conventional geothermal resources are only available to a small extend in Italy (already used) and Turkey (about 1 GW). The technical HDR potential for lower temperatures was not assessed. For Europe, medium term geothermal power potentials given in the literature were taken for cross-checking. Biomass: From the literature, agricultural residues, e. g. bagasse, which at present are mainly unused for power purposes were taken as reference. An electricity conversion factor of 0. 5 MWh/ton of biomass was assumed for the calculations. It was assumed that 80 % of this potential will be used in 2050. Municipal waste was assessed from literature and from the growth of urban population. A municipal waste productivity of 0. 35 ton/cap/year and a conversion factor of 0. 5 MWh/ton of municipal waste was assumed. 80 % of this potential is used until 2050. Solid biomass potentials were assessed from a global map of biomass productivity in tons/ha/year and from the forest areas of each country. Only 40 % of this potential is used until 2050. Results were cross-checked for plausibility with historical data from European countries. There will be a competition with traditional fuel wood use. Annual full load hours are used as performance indicator. Concentrating Solar Thermal Power (CSP): High resolution assessment of direct normal irradiation (year 2002) and of suitable sites using GIS and satellite data. Until 2025, the potential is limited by industrial CSP production capacities. After 2025, demand becomes the limiting factor. Resources are used only to a small extend in MENA. In Southern Europe most resources are concentrated in Spain, only minor resources in the rest of Southern Europe. Performance indicator DNI. A threshold of 2000 k. Wh/m²/year is used for the economic potential. Wind Energy: Wind power resources are given in the literature for European countries and for some MENA countries. For other countries, from the wind map, electricity potentials were derived taken into account wind speed and areal restrictions. Areas with an annual production over 14 GWh/y were considered as economic potential. Results were cross-checked for some countries that have made a national resource assessment. Annual full load hours define the performance. They are derived from literature, from the World Wind Atlas and from the map. Potentials include onshore and offshore. Wave and Tidal power potentials were taken from the literature. Performance Indicator are annual full load hours. Photovoltaic: Photovoltaic applications are in principal unlimited. Using present growth rates and scenarios for very large PV systems and distributed applications, PV potentials were assessed in a relatively subjective way. For EU states, literature gives mid term potentials for PV. Performance indicator is the global irradiation on a surface tilted according to the latitude (map and meteonorm database). No economic threshold.

Renewable Energy Resource Mapping Biomass Wind Energy Geothermal Energy Hydropower Solar Energy

Annual Global Irradiation on Surfaces Tilted South with Latitude Angle in k. Wh/m²/year Source: ECMWF, ISET

Annual Average Wind Speed at 80 m above ground level in m/s Source: ECMWF, ISET

Temperature at 5000 m Depth for Hot Dry Rock Geothermal Power Technology Source: Bestec

Biomass Productivity /Bazilevich 1994/ Forest Areas /USGS 2002/

Summary of biomass electricity potentials from Agricultural and Municipal Waste and Solid Biomass

Gross Hydropower Potentials in EU-MENA Potential in GWh/y < 100 per 30 x 50 km Pixel Source: Lehner, B. , Czisch, G. , Vassolo, S. (2005): The impact of global change on the hydropower potential of Europe: a model-based analysis. Energy Policy, Vol. 33/7: 839 -855 based on Alcamo et al. (2003), Döll et al. (2003)

Annual Direct Normal Irradiation on Surfaces Tracking continuously the Sun in k. Wh/m²/year

Renewable Electricity Performance Indicators The indicators define the representative average renewable electricity yield of a typical facility in each country. They define the economic potential of each country through the available areas with this or better performance, and the electricity cost of the average renewable electricity plants. Full Load Hours per Year Annual Global Radiation on Tilted Surface Full Load Hours per Year Temperature at 5000 m Depth Full Load Hours per Year Annual Direct Normal Irradiation Full Load Hours per Year

Assessment of Land Resources The land resources for the erection of renewable electricity generating systems are limited by a series of constraints. A geographical information system was used to exclude sites with restrictions by land cover and land use (water bodies, river beds, swamps, agriculture, forests etc. ), by geo-morphological characteristics (salt pans, sand dunes etc. ), by slope higher than 2. 1 %, by protected or otherwise used areas (natural parks, airports, communities etc. ). Such restrictions where applied to concentrating solar power and wind power systems. Population density was used to estimate restrictions with respect to the visibility and acceptance of wind parks (e. g. in tourist areas). There are practically no restrictions for small PV systems, but for large ones approximately the same as for CSP. The assessment of hydropower schemes is state of the art and was not investigated here. No extra areal restrictions where applied to biomass and geothermal plants, as their area coverage is intrinsically limited by technology-inherent factors like the maximum distance for the access to biomass or the maximum geothermal energy density, respectively. Assessment of Infrastructure Cost The cost of connecting a power plant depends also on its distance to the existing infrastructure, especially roads and the electricity grid. For fossil plants, fuels can be supplied by truck or pipeline. The infrastructure costs depend in first place on the location, only in second order on the size of the power plant. Therefore, distances and infrastructure costs are very critical for small plants, and less critical for very large plants. Infrastructure costs where calculated with 110, 000 $/km for roads and 100, 000 $/km for high voltage interconnections. Expansion of renewable energy technologies will start with smaller units within the proximity of the existing electricity grid and slowly expand to larger distances as the unit size of wind parks and CSP plants will increase. For very large renewable power export schemes, remote areas with very high irradiance or wind speed will subsequently become economically attractive. Therefore, economic potentials are considered to be only limited by the renewable energy performance indicators and not by infrastructure costs. Access to Water Thermo-electric power stations can use seawater, river water or air for cooling the power cycle, depending on the accessibility of those resources. Air cooled plants can in principal be build everywhere, but water cooling might be cheaper if available. Inland CSP potentials were calculated with air cooled systems only. CSP plants for combined seawater desalination will be placed on the shore. The areas for shore side CSP plants where assessed separately for each country. They where limited to sites that are not more than 20 meters above sea level. The use of inland groundwater resources for desalination and power plant cooling was neglected. However, there may be limited renewable water resources available for that purpose.

Exclusion Areas for Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Plants in Southern Europe and Maghreb Countries

Exclusion Areas for Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Plants in Western Asia and the Arabian Peninsula

Infrastructure Cost of Interconnecting a Power Plant to the Euro. Mediterranean and Maghreb Electricity* and Road Grid * includes planned interconnections

Infrastructure Cost of Interconnecting a Power Plant to the Western Asian and Arabian Electricity* and Road Grid * includes planned interconnections

Renewable Electricity Potentials in TWh/year Remarks: well documented resource taken from literature from 5000 m temperature map considering areas with T>180°C as economic from agricultural (bagasse) and municipal waste and renewable solid biomass potentials from DNI and CSP site mapping taking sites with DNI > 2000 k. Wh/m²/y as economic for Iran, the CSP potentials are still rough estimates from wind speed and site mapping taking sites with a yield > 14 GWh/y and from literature (EU) No information except for EU. General PV growth rates used for calculation No information except for EU mid term economic potentials

Exploitation Ratio of Renewable Electricity Potentials until 2050 for Iran, the CSP potentials are still rough estimates

Country Analysis of CSP Potentials The following section shows the CSP potentials for most countries analysed in the MED-CSP study. The map shows Direct Normal Irradiance in k. Wh/m²/y on all areas that are not excluded from the land resource assessment. One histogram shows how much electricity (TWh/y) can be generated in each class of Direct Normal Irradiance (k. Wh/m²/y). This defines the Technical Potential and the CSP performance indicator of each country. The second histogram shows the same but only for coastal areas not higher than 20 meters above sea level (a. s. l. ). This defines the technical potential for CSP plants with combined seawater desalination. There is also a list of indicators that compares the existing CSP potentials with the demand figures of each country for the scenario described in WP 5: Technical Potential: Economic Potential: Power Demand 2000: Power Demand 2050: Tentative CSP 2050: Coastal Potential: Water Demand 2050: defined by all non-excluded areas with a Direct Normal Irradiance higher than 1800 k. Wh/m²/y defined by all non-excluded areas with a Direct Normal Irradiance higher than 2000 k. Wh/m²/y according to the scenario described in WP 5 economic potential defined by all non-excluded areas with a DNI higher than 2000 k. Wh/m²/y and 20 m a. s. l. power demand for desalination in TWh/y according to the scenario described in WP 5

Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials in Morocco DNI [k. Wh/m²/y] Technical Potential: Economic Potential: Power Demand 2000: Power Demand 2050: Tentative CSP 2050: Coastal Potential: Water Demand 2050: 20151 TWh/y (DNI > 1800 k. Wh/m²/y) 20146 TWh/y (DNI > 2000 k. Wh/m²/y) 15 TWh/y 235 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 150 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 300 TWh/y (< 20 m a. s. l. ) 1. 2 TWh/y (Power for Desalination)

Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials in Algeria DNI [k. Wh/m²/y] Technical Potential: 169440 TWh/y (DNI > 1800 k. Wh/m²/y) Economic Potential: 168971 TWh/y (DNI > 2000 k. Wh/m²/y) Power Demand 2000: 23 TWh/y Power Demand 2050: 249 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Tentative CSP 2050: 165 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Coastal Potential: 57 TWh/y (< 20 m a. s. l. ) Water Demand 2050: 2. 8 TWh/y (Power for Desalination)

Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials in Tunisia DNI [k. Wh/m²/y] Technical Potential: Economic Potential: Power Demand 2000: Power Demand 2050: Tentative CSP 2050: Coastal Potential: Water Demand 2050: 9815 TWh/y (DNI > 1800 k. Wh/m²/y) 9244 TWh/y (DNI > 2000 k. Wh/m²/y) 10 TWh/y 66 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 43 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 352 TWh/y (< 20 m a. s. l. ) 1 TWh/y (Power for Desalination)

Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials in Libya DNI [k. Wh/m²/y] Technical Potential: 139600 TWh/y (DNI > 1800 k. Wh/m²/y) Economic Potential: 139470 TWh/y (DNI > 2000 k. Wh/m²/y) Power Demand 2000: 19 TWh/y Power Demand 2050: 44 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Tentative CSP 2050: 22 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) Coastal Potential: 498 TWh/y (< 20 m a. s. l. ) Water Demand 2050: 25 TWh/y (Power for Desalination)

Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials in Egypt DNI [k. Wh/m²/y] Technical Potential: Economic Potential: Power Demand 2000: Power Demand 2050: Tentative CSP 2050: Coastal Potential: Water Demand 2050: 73656 TWh/y (DNI > 1800 k. Wh/m²/y) 73655 TWh/y (DNI > 2000 k. Wh/m²/y) 71 TWh/y 631 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 395 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 496 TWh/y (< 20 m a. s. l. ) 256 TWh/y (Power for Desalination)

Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials in Malta DNI [k. Wh/m²/y] Technical Potential: Economic Potential: Power Demand 2000: Power Demand 2050: Tentative CSP 2050: Coastal Potential: Water Demand 2050: 2. 3 TWh/y (DNI > 1800 k. Wh/m²/y) 1. 9 TWh/y (DNI > 2000 k. Wh/m²/y) 1. 8 TWh/y 2. 3 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 0. 4 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 0. 3 TWh/y (< 20 m a. s. l. ) < 1 TWh/y (Power for Desalination)

Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials in Portugal DNI [k. Wh/m²/y] Technical Potential: Economic Potential: Power Demand 2000: Power Demand 2050: Tentative CSP 2050: Coastal Potential: Water Demand 2050: 436 TWh/y (DNI > 1800 k. Wh/m²/y) 142 TWh/y (DNI > 2000 k. Wh/m²/y) 42 TWh/y 51 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 10 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 7 TWh/y (< 20 m a. s. l. ) < 1 TWh/y (Power for Desalination)

Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials in Spain DNI [k. Wh/m²/y] Technical Potential: Economic Potential: Power Demand 2000: Power Demand 2050: Tentative CSP 2050: Coastal Potential: Water Demand 2050: 1646 TWh/y (DNI > 1800 k. Wh/m²/y) 1278 TWh/y (DNI > 2000 k. Wh/m²/y) 213 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 25 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 73 TWh/y (< 20 m a. s. l. ) 3. 4 TWh/y (Power for Desalination)

Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials in Italy DNI [k. Wh/m²/y] Technical Potential: Economic Potential: Power Demand 2000: Power Demand 2050: Tentative CSP 2050: Coastal Potential: Water Demand 2050: 88 TWh/y (DNI > 1800 k. Wh/m²/y) 5 TWh/y (DNI > 2000 k. Wh/m²/y) 299 TWh/y 256 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 5 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 3 TWh/y (< 20 m a. s. l. ) 1 TWh/y (Power for Desalination)

Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials in Greece DNI [k. Wh/m²/y] Technical Potential: Economic Potential: Power Demand 2000: Power Demand 2050: Tentative CSP 2050: Coastal Potential: Water Demand 2050: 44 TWh/y (DNI > 1800 k. Wh/m²/y) 4 TWh/y (DNI > 2000 k. Wh/m²/y) 50 TWh/y 56 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 3. 5 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 0 TWh/y (< 20 m a. s. l. ) < 1 TWh/y (Power for Desalination)

Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials in Cyprus DNI [k. Wh/m²/y] Technical Potential: Economic Potential: Power Demand 2000: Power Demand 2050: Tentative CSP 2050: Coastal Potential: Water Demand 2050: 23 TWh/y (DNI > 1800 k. Wh/m²/y) 20 TWh/y (DNI > 2000 k. Wh/m²/y) 3. 1 TWh/y 4. 9 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 0. 9 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 4. 4 TWh/y (< 20 m a. s. l. ) < 1 TWh/y (Power for Desalination)

Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials in Turkey DNI [k. Wh/m²/y] Technical Potential: Economic Potential: Power Demand 2000: Power Demand 2050: Tentative CSP 2050: Coastal Potential: Water Demand 2050: 405 TWh/y (DNI > 1800 k. Wh/m²/y) 131 TWh/y (DNI > 2000 k. Wh/m²/y) 121 TWh/y 425 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 12 TWh/y (< 20 m a. s. l. ) < 1 TWh/y (Power for Desalination)

Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials in Israel DNI [k. Wh/m²/y] Technical Potential: Economic Potential: Power Demand 2000: Power Demand 2050: Tentative CSP 2050: Coastal Potential: Water Demand 2050: 3118 TWh/y (DNI > 1800 k. Wh/m²/y) 3112 TWh/y (DNI > 2000 k. Wh/m²/y) 42 TWh/y 57 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 22 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 1. 5 TWh/y (< 20 m a. s. l. ) 2. 7 TWh/y (Power for Desalination)

Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials in Jordan Technical Potential: Economic Potential: Power Demand 2000: Power Demand 2050: Tentative CSP 2050: Coastal Potential: Water Demand 2050: 6434 TWh/y (DNI > 1800 k. Wh/m²/y) 6429 TWh/y (DNI > 2000 k. Wh/m²/y) 7 TWh/y 50 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 40 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 0 TWh/y (< 20 m a. s. l. ) 3. 5 TWh/y (Power for Desalination) DNI [k. Wh/m²/y]

Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials in Lebanon DNI [k. Wh/m²/y] Technical Potential: Economic Potential: Power Demand 2000: Power Demand 2050: Tentative CSP 2050: Coastal Potential: Water Demand 2050: 19 TWh/y (DNI > 1800 k. Wh/m²/y) 14 TWh/y (DNI > 2000 k. Wh/m²/y) 9 TWh/y 25 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 12 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 0. 2 TWh/y (< 20 m a. s. l. ) < 1 TWh/y (Power for Desalination)

Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials in Syria DNI [k. Wh/m²/y] Technical Potential: Economic Potential: Power Demand 2000: Power Demand 2050: Tentative CSP 2050: Coastal Potential: Water Demand 2050: 10777 TWh/y (DNI > 1800 k. Wh/m²/y) 10210 TWh/y (DNI > 2000 k. Wh/m²/y) 23 TWh/y 166 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 117 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 0 TWh/y (< 20 m a. s. l. ) 42 TWh/y (Power for Desalination)

Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials in Iraq DNI [k. Wh/m²/y] Technical Potential: Economic Potential: Power Demand 2000: Power Demand 2050: Tentative CSP 2050: Coastal Potential: Water Demand 2050: 30806 TWh/y (DNI > 1800 k. Wh/m²/y) 28647 TWh/y (DNI > 2000 k. Wh/m²/y) 31 TWh/y 257 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 190 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 61 TWh/y (< 20 m a. s. l. ) 13 TWh/y (Power for Desalination)

Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials in Bahrain DNI [k. Wh/m²/y] Technical Potential: Economic Potential: Power Demand 2000: Power Demand 2050: Tentative CSP 2050: Coastal Potential: Water Demand 2050: 36 TWh/y (DNI > 1800 k. Wh/m²/y) 33 TWh/y (DNI > 2000 k. Wh/m²/y) 5. 8 TWh/y 6. 9 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 3. 5 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 21 TWh/y (< 20 m a. s. l. ) 1 TWh/y (Power for Desalination)

Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials in Qatar DNI [k. Wh/m²/y] Technical Potential: Economic Potential: Power Demand 2000: Power Demand 2050: Tentative CSP 2050: Coastal Potential: Water Demand 2050: 823 TWh/y (DNI > 1800 k. Wh/m²/y) 792 TWh/y (DNI > 2000 k. Wh/m²/y) 9 TWh/y 5 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 2. 8 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 324 TWh/y (< 20 m a. s. l. ) 1 TWh/y (Power for Desalination)

Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials in UAE DNI [k. Wh/m²/y] Technical Potential: Economic Potential: Power Demand 2000: Power Demand 2050: Tentative CSP 2050: Coastal Potential: Water Demand 2050: 2078 TWh/y (DNI > 1800 k. Wh/m²/y) 1988 TWh/y (DNI > 2000 k. Wh/m²/y) 36 TWh/y 24 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 10 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 538 TWh/y (< 20 m a. s. l. ) 8 TWh/y (Power for Desalination)

Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials in Kuwait DNI [k. Wh/m²/y] Technical Potential: Economic Potential: Power Demand 2000: Power Demand 2050: Tentative CSP 2050: Coastal Potential: Water Demand 2050: 1525 TWh/y (DNI > 1800 k. Wh/m²/y) 1525 TWh/y (DNI > 2000 k. Wh/m²/y) 30 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 134 TWh/y (< 20 m a. s. l. ) 2. 2 TWh/y (Power for Desalination)

Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials in Oman DNI [k. Wh/m²/y] Technical Potential: Economic Potential: Power Demand 2000: Power Demand 2050: Tentative CSP 2050: Coastal Potential: Water Demand 2050: 20611 TWh/y (DNI > 1800 k. Wh/m²/y) 19404 TWh/y (DNI > 2000 k. Wh/m²/y) 8. 5 TWh/y 35 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 22 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 497 TWh/y (< 20 m a. s. l. ) 6 TWh/y (Power for Desalination)

Solar Thermal Electricity Potentials in Saudi Arabia DNI [k. Wh/m²/y] Technical Potential: Economic Potential: Power Demand 2000: Power Demand 2050: Tentative CSP 2050: Coastal Potential: Water Demand 2050: 125260 TWh/y (DNI > 1800 k. Wh/m²/y) 124560 TWh/y (DNI > 2000 k. Wh/m²/y) 119 TWh/y 305 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 135 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE) 2055 TWh/y (< 20 m a. s. l. ) 99 TWh/y (Power for Desalination)

Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials in Yemen DNI [k. Wh/m²/y]