Lecture 9 Foreign Policy Decision Making Part II

Lecture #9 Foreign Policy Decision Making Part II: Decision-Making Biases

Introduction • Research in psychology has shown that humans are limited information processors with a range of blind spots (many of them predictable and recurring) • Political psychologists have applied these findings to foreign policy decision-making and shown that key psychological biases affect outcomes in IR • Classic example: Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics

Group Decision-Making Biases

Groupthink Pages 132 -134 of Supplemental Reading Add to the graphic organizer from the reading!

• Groupthink • Irving Janis’ classic study of foreign policy fiascos (Bay of Pigs, Vietnam, etc. ) • Excessive concurrence of seeking highest priority in achieving and maintaining group consensus and good relations and not reaching best possible decision • Tendency for small groups to form a consensus and resist criticism of that core position, often disregarding contradictory information

• Groupthink • Symptoms • Overestimation of group power/morality • Closed-mindedness (incomplete survey of information, options, and risks/consequences) • Pressures toward uniformity

• Groupthink • Causes • Collegiality • Insulation • No tradition of impartial leadership • Lack of clear decision-making methods

Example • During the US planning for the Bay of Pigs, operation against Cuba in 1961, opponents were ostracized from the planning group.

Examples: You. Tube Clip • Groupthink History • Blossomrice • Uploaded on Mar 25, 2010 • Running time of 2: 12 minutes • Here are some famous examples of Groupthink in history. This was made as part of a presentation for Psychology class.

Group Polarization/Choices Shift

• Group Polarization/Choice Shift • Can occur in groups with shared values/preferences • Group chooses more extreme option than any individual would have chosen • Examples: risk-taking, racial/sexual prejudice, juries’ punitive damage rewards • Likely mechanisms: diffusion of responsibility, social desirability, increased number of persuasive arguments

Examples Often Seen in Statecraft Simulation • Statecraft Examples: • Countries made up of pacifists, who would individually prefer to build one or two army divisions, may end up building none at all • Countries composed of militarily assertive students often pursue more aggressive actions than any individual would have preferred

Individual Decision-Making Biases

Individual decision-making biases • Four types of Individual Decision-Making Biases • Prospect Theory • Mirror-Imaging • Attribution Biases • Motivated Biases

Prospect Theory Page 132 of Supplemental Reading Add to graphic organizer from reading

• Prospect Theory • Challenge to Rational Choice Theory • Predicts people will be: • Risk-averse in the domain of gains • Risk-seeking in the domain of losses • A person’s reference point (determining which domain they are in) is thus crucial

• Prospect Theory • “Endowment effect” helps explain these findings: people value what they possess more than an equally attractive alternative • Implications for IR: • Leaders will take greater risks to protect current resources than gain new ones • Equal trades are unattractive; bias toward status quo in negotiations (e. g. , Israeli. Palestinian conflict)

Group-Share • Using your knowledge of World History, American History, and current events, identify examples of Prospect Theory in action.

Mirror-Imaging

• Mirror-Imaging • Definition: the common human tendency to assume that other actors share one’s: • Values • Perceptions • Cost-benefit calculations

• Mirror-Imaging • A major cause of intelligence failures and strategic surprise: • Often a stronger country/coalition believes an attack by a weaker side would be irrational and assumes the weaker party shares this view (rendering them unprepared) • Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor • Chinese intervention in Korea • Egyptian/Syrian attack on Israel in Yom Kippur War • Saddam Hussein’s refusal to pull out of Kuwait in 1990/91

Example • During the Cold War, both US elites and masses viewed the Soviet Union in terms of their own mirror image. • The United States was friendly. • The Soviet Union was hostile.

Attribution Biases

Attribution of Power • Ascribing power to people at any level • May not be same as actual power • Attribution based on • Personal characteristics • Context of the person

Attribution of Power • Personal characteristics • Formal position: status and authority • Technical knowledge • Central position in a communication network • Context of the person • Physical context • Group or project membership • Member of a coalition

• Attribution Biases • Actor-Observer Bias: • people tend to attribute others’ behavior to their disposition (internal character) but attribute their own behavior to situational pressures • May lead decision-makers to attribute overly hostile intentions to other states

• Attribution Biases • Dispositional and Situational Attribution Biases • Different attributions depending on whether the foreign actor is friend or foe: • Positive act by ally: dispositional attribution (“they are a good friend”) • Negative act by ally: situational attribution (“they were forced to do it”) • Positive act by enemy: situational attribution (“they were compelled to do it”) • Negative act by enemy: dispositional attribution (“they are an evil country”) • These patterns may blind one to a potential overture from an enemy or warning signs in an ally’s behavior

Group-Share • Using your knowledge of World History, American History, and current events, identify examples of Attribution Biases in explaining other country’s behavior? • How did these biases affect how other countries responded to that individual country?

Motivated Biases Pages 130 -131 of Supplemental Reading Add to graphic organizer notes.

• Motivated Biases: • “Wishful thinking”: you want something to be the case so badly you convince yourself it is true and ignore/discount evidence to the contrary • “Rational, ” or “cold” calculations are inhibited by “hot” emotions or underlying motives

• Motivated Biases • Examples: • Leaders who earnestly desire peace may appease aggressive adversaries, convincing themselves these strategies will be successful. • Leaders who desire to prevail in a military confrontation may discount the capabilities of their opponent (or inflate their own) because they want so badly to be victorious. • These tendencies may be exacerbated by group dynamics (see Groupthink and Group Polarization).

Statecraft Simulation Examples • Examples: • Leaders who earnestly desire peace may appease aggressive adversaries, convincing themselves these strategies will be successful. • In Statecraft, peace-loving leaders want world peace so badly (and the points that come with it) that they overestimate the likelihood of it actually occurring • Leaders who desire to prevail in a military confrontation may discount the capabilities of their opponent (or inflate their own) because they want so badly to be victorious. • In Statecraft, aggressive countries and coalitions are notorious for overestimating their ability to take large chunks of territory in a short period of time, even though the mechanics of conquest are made clear in the simulation manual.