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DECISION MAKING “A decision is a judgment. It is a choice between alternatives. It is rarely a choice between right and wrong. It is at best a choice between “almost right” and “probably wrong”. -Drucker “A manager by profession is a decision maker; Uncertainty is his opponent, overcoming it is his mission. ”
Decision Making l Decision making is not easy l It must be done amid – – – 3 ever-changing factors unclear information conflicting points of view
Decisions and Decision Making l Decision = choice made from available alternatives l Decision Making = process of identifying problems and opportunities and resolving them 4
The Significance of Decision Making n Decision making is the one truly distinctive characteristic of managers. n Decisions made by top managers commit the total organization toward particular courses of action.
The Significance of Decision Making (cont’d) n Decisions made by lower levels of management implement the strategic decisions of top managers in the operating areas of the organization. n Decisions invariably involve organizational change and the commitment of scarce resources.
Categories of Decisions/Types l Programmed Decisions (routine, almost automatic process) – – Situations occurred often enough to enable decision rules to be developed and applied in the future (There are rules or guidelines to follow) Made in response to recurring organizational problems (managers have made decision may times before) Example: deciding to reorder office supplies Ethical Dilemma: The No-Show Consultant 7
l Non-programmed Decisions – (Unusual situations that have not been often addressed) In response to unique, poorly defined and largely unstructured, and have important consequences to the organization l No rules to follow, since the decision is new l These decisions are made based on information, and a managers intuition and judgment Example: should the firm invest in a new technology? l
The Decision-Making Process Define the problem/ Setting managerial Objectives by identifying the Limiting factors Searching For potential alternatives Revise or update objectives/ problem Follow-up and control Take corrective action as necessary Comparing & evaluating alternatives Renew search Implementing decisions The act of choice/select the best alternative
1. Define the problem l l l Identify the problem Define the problem Identify the problem separately from its symptoms (A successful manager doesn’t just attack symptoms; he works to uncover the factors that cause these symptoms ) 10
Eg: Symptoms and their real causes 11 Symptoms Underlying Problems Low profits/declining sales Poor market research High cost Poor design process, poorly trained employees Low morale Lack of communication between management and subordinates High employee turnover Rate of pay too low, job design not suitable High rate of absenteeism Employees believe that they are not valued
Identifying the limiting factor l 12 Realistically, managers operate in an environment that normally doesn’t provide ideal resources. For example- they may lack the proper budget or may not have the most accurate information or extra time. So they must choose to satisfice-to make the best decision possible with the available information, resources and time available.
2. Develop potential alternatives l 13 A manager should think through and investigate several alternatives solutions to a single problem before making a quick decision. one of the best methods for developing alternatives is through brainstorming(where a group works together to generate ideas and alternative solutions)
l l l 14 Although brainstorming is the most common technique to develop alternative solutions, managers can use several other ways to help develop solutions. Here are some examples- nominal group technique (it’s a structured meeting, with an agenda, restricts discussion during the decision making process) Delphi technique- ( participants never meet, but a group leader uses written questionnaire to conduct the decision making
Advantages of group decision making >Groups provide a broader perspective >Employees are more likely to be satisfied and to support the final decision >opportunities for discussion help to answer questions and reduce uncertainties for the decision makers. 15
3. Analyze the alternatives >Decide the relative merits of each idea >Identify the advantages and disadvantages of each alternative solutions >Perform a cost benefit analysis for each alternative >Rank/give weights/ to each alternative >A manager needs to evaluate each alternative in terms of- Feasibility (can it be done) Effectiveness (how well does it resolve the problem situation? ) Consequences ( what will be its cost to the organization? )
4. Select the best alternative Decides which alternative is the most feasible and effective less cost to the organization chances of success A manager simply selects the alternative with the highest probability of success l
5. Implement the decision 6. Establish a control- Actions needs to be monitored. An evaluation system should provide feedback on how well the decisions is being implemented, what are the results, what adjustments are necessary to get the results etc…
Decisions and Decision Making l Many decisions that managers deal with every day involve at least some degree of uncertainty and require non-programmed decision making § § May be difficult to make Made amid changing factors Information may be unclear May have to deal with conflicting points of view
Conditions that influence decision making ● Certainty ● ● Risk ● ● all the information the decision maker needs is fully available ( DSS) Non programmed decisions are tailored to the situations Lacks complete information future outcomes associated with each alternative are subject to chance Uncertainty ● ● ● Sometimes cant even assign probabilities information about alternatives and future events is incomplete managers may have to come up with creative approaches to alternatives Ambiguity ● ● by far the most difficult decision situation goals to be achieved or the problem to be solved is unclear alternatives are difficult to define information about outcomes is unavailable
Conditions that Affect the Possibility of Decision Failure Organizational Problem Low Possibility of Failure Certainty Risk Uncertainty Programmed Decisions High Ambiguity Nonprogrammed Decisions Problem Solution
MODEL OF DECISION MAKING ON GOING / RULES STRUCTURED EMPRICAL REQUIRES THINKING UNSTRUCTURED NOT UNIQUE 1. Approach Rational/Objective Satisficing Approach 2. Type Prescriptive (Idealized situation) Descriptive (Reality Based) 3. Knowledge Complete Fragmentary 4. Probability of risk Low High 5. Alternatives available Many Only a few Defined Broad Spectrum 6. Goals
Selecting a Decision Making Model l Depends on the manager’s personal preference Whether the decision is programmed or non-programmed Extent to which the decision is characterized by risk, uncertainty, or ambiguity
Three Decision-Making Models Classical Model Administrative Model Political Model
Classical Model Logical decision in the organization’s best economic interests Assumptions § § Decision maker operates to accomplish goals that are known and agreed upon Decision maker strives for condition of certainty – gathers complete information Criteria for evaluating alternatives are known Decision maker is rational and uses logic Normative = describes how a manager should and provides guidelines for reaching an ideal decision
Administrative Model Herbert A. Simon How nonprogrammed decisions are made--uncertainty/ambiguity ü Two concepts are instrumental in shaping the administrative model ● Bounded rationality: people have limits or boundaries on how rational they can be ● Satisficing: means that decision makers choose the first solution alternative that satisfies minimal decision criteria
Administrative Model How nonprogrammed decisions are made--uncertainty/ambiguity ● Managers actually make decisions in difficult situations characterized by non-programmed decisions, uncertainty, and ambiguity ● ● ● Decision goals often are vague, conflicting and lack consensus among managers; Rational procedures are not always used Managers’ searches for alternatives are limited Managers settle for a satisficing rather than a maximizing solution intuition, looks to past experience ● Descriptive = how managers actually make decisions--not how they should
Political Model Closely resembles the real environment ● Closely resembles the real environment in which most managers and decision makers operate ● Useful in making non-programmed decisions ● Decisions are complex ● Disagreement and conflict over problems and solutions are normal ● Coalition = informal alliance among manages who support a specific goal
Characteristics of Classical, Political, and Administrative Decision Making Models Classical Model Administrative Model Political Model Clear-cut problem and goals Vague problem and goals Pluralistic; conflicting goals Condition of certainty Condition of uncertainty/ambiguity Full information about Limited information about Inconsistent viewpoints; ambiguous alternatives and their outcomes Alternatives and their outcomes information Rational choice by individual Satisficing choice for resolving Bargaining and discussion among for maximizing outcomes problem using intuition coalition members
Six Steps in the Managerial Decision-Making Process Evaluation and Feedback Implementation of Chosen Alternative Decision. Making Process Selection of Desired Alternative 30 Recognition of Decision Requirement Diagnosis and Analysis of Causes Development of Alternatives
Rational decision making model Step Example Recognizing & defining the situation A plant manager sees that employee turnover has increased by 5% Identifying the alternatives The plant manager can increase wages, increase benefits, or change hiring standards Evaluating the alternatives Increasing the benefits may not be feasible. Increasing wages and changing hiring standards may satisfy all conditions Selecting the best alternative Changing hiring standards will take an extended period of time to cut turnover, so increase wages
Implementing the chosen alternatives The plant manager may need permission from corporate headquarters. The HRD establishes a new wage structure Following up and evaluating the results The pant manager notes that six months later turnover has dropped to its previous level
CONSTRAINTS OF RATIONAL DECISION MAKING 1. PROBLEM • • • Seldom consensus as to the definition of the problem. Differentiate fact from opinion. 2. GENERATE ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION • • • The first acceptable solution is usually accepted. Alternatives are based on what was successful in the past. Specify alternatives that are consistent with goals Identify what standard is violated.
CONSTRAINTS OF RATIONAL DECISION MAKING 3. EVALUATE ALTERNATIVES • Limited information available about each alternative. • Satisfactory solutions, not optimal ones, are usually accepted. • Do not evaluate main effects and side effects. 4. IMPLEMENT AND FOLLOW UP • Resistance to change is a universal phenomenon. • Not always clear what part of the solution should be monitored or measured in follow-up.
Case Study Harish Bhatt, a very bright and ambitious young executive, was born and raised in Jaipur. He graduated from a local college and married a girl who was his class-mate. Harish then went to Mumbai where be received an M. B. A. He was now in the seventh year with Birla Steel Ltd. This was located in Jaipur l
Case Study-contd…. . As part of an extension program, the board of directors of Birla Steel decided to build a new branch plant. Bhatt was selected to be the manager at the new plant. He was also informed that if the new plant is a success he would be promoted to a higher post. The location of the new plant was to be decided by an ad hoc committee of which Bhatt was made the chairman. In the committee’s first meeting Bhatt explained to the members the ideal requirements for the new plant and gave them one month to come up with three choice locations
Case Study- contd…. . When after a month the committee re-met, it recommender the following cities in order of preference: Gurgaon, ? Chennai; and Indore. Bhatt thanked the committee members for their fine job and told them he would like to study the report in more depth before he made his final decision.
Case Study-contd…. That evening he asked his lovely wife. “Honey, how would you like to move to Gurgaon? ” Her answer was quick and sharp. “Heavens no!” she said. “I have lived in Rajasthan all my life and am not at all inclined to move out to gurgaon- extent ion of Delhi. That kind of life is not for me. ” Bhatt weakly protested by saying that the committee had ranked Gurgaon as the best location for the new plant. The second was Chennai and the third was Indore, but if you insist on Gurgaon, you will have to by yourself. ”
Case Study-contd…. The next day Bhatt, called his committee together and said, “Gentlemen, you should all be commended for doing an excellent job on this report. However, after detailed study, I am convinced that Indore will meet the needs of our new plant better than Gurgaon or Chennai. Therefore, the decision will be to locate the new plant in Indore, Thank you all again for a job well done” l
Case study-Questions l Did Bhatt make a rational decision?
Decision Styles l Differences among people with respect to how they perceive problems and make decisions l Not all managers make decisions the same – – Directive style Analytical style Conceptual style Behavioral style
DECISION STYLES High Tolerance for Ambiguity Low Analytical Conceptual Careful decision makers Adapt to new situation Broad outlook examine more alternative long range find creative solution Directive Behavioral Efficient, logical use less information, few alternative make decision fast focus on short-term Work well with others Receptive to suggestions Avoid conflicts Rational Way of Thinking Intuitive
Personal Decision Framework Situation: · Programmed/nonprogrammed · Classical, administrative, political · Decision steps Personal Decision Style: ·Directive ·Analytical ·Conceptual ·Behavioral Decision Choice: ·Best Solution to Problem
Directive Style l l l People who prefer simple, clear-cut solutions to problems Make decisions quickly May consider only one or two alternatives Efficient and rational Prefer rules or procedures
Analytical Style l l Complex solutions based on as much data as they can gather Carefully consider alternatives Base decision on objective, rational data from management control systems and other sources Search for best possible decision based on information available
Conceptual Style l Consider a broad amount of information l More socially oriented than analytical style l Like to talk to others about the problem and possible solutions l Consider many broad alternatives l Relay on information from people and systems l Solve problems creatively
Behavioral Style l Have a deep concern for others as individuals l Like to talk to people one-on-one l Understand their feelings about the problem and the effect of a given decision upon them l Concerned with the personal development of others l May make decisions to help others achieve their goals Experiential Exercise: What’s Your Personal Decision Style?
The Scope of Decision Making n Individual decision making n Group decision making n Organizational decision making n Metaorganizational decision making
The Scope of Decision Making Decisional Inputs (Objectives, information, resources, energy) Metaorganization Organization Group Interactional Levels Individual Decisional Outputs Permeable Boundaries (Actions transactions, outcomes) External Environment
TOYOTA DECISION MAKING METHODS Level of involvement Preferred Seek Individual Input, then Decide and Announce Seek Group Input, then Decide and Announce Time Group Consensus, Management Approval Fallback Group Consensus , with full authority Fallback (if consensus not achieved)
THE TOYOTA WAY 1. Thorough Consideration • Quality of decision • Asking why? 5 times • Building Consensus • Deming Cycle (PDCA)
THE TOYOTA WAY 2. Considering Alternative Solution • Follow set based Approach • Different people-different set of alternatives • Turn conflict into win / win situation 3. Presenting Decision on one page • Proposal discussed with all • Agreement before presentation • One page – formal decision only formality
New Decision Approaches for Turbulent Times Brainstor ming Kno w. W ate b h is un t. P ’ on ga n E F Pra D n, n o g i R the e c i t c ar Le e s. D rou i ge s hy W e iv hen to B ail