Climate change impacts on broadacre farming Peter Hayman

Climate change impacts on broadacre farming – Peter Hayman

Brief from Mark…. • temperature / rainfall impacts on farming systems in southern Australia: • Projected changes – 10, 20, 30, 50 years ahead • Likely effects on crop production • Possible responses • El Nino effect this year

Brief from Mark…. • temperature / rainfall impacts on farming systems in southern Australia: • Projected changes – 10, 20, 30, 50 years ahead • Likely effects on crop production • Possible responses • El Nino effect this year

What destroyed the sand castle ? The wave or tide ?

http: //sciencepolicy. colorado. edu/me dia_coverage/index. html

Mark’s brief 10, 20, 30, 50 years ahead

For a 75% chance of meeting the 2�� C limit we can emit no more than 1, 000 billion tonnes of CO 2 between 2000 and 2050. By 2013 we had released 391 Billion Tonnes

http: //www. climatechange 2013. org/images/report/WG 1 AR 5_SPM_FINAL. pdf

Seven main changes 1. Mean temperature: 2. Extreme heat 3. Frost risk 4. Rainfall (autumn winter spring summer) 5. Rainfall intensity 6. Evaporation 7. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere Richard Eckard: Physical…Policy…. Peripheral

Seven main changes 1. Mean temperature: faster growth – pest disease spectrum. A lot of ecology is driven by temperature Quicker development is a much greater issue for perennial crops than annual crops

Average maximum temperature (1957 -2009) September October Data source is from SILO (Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence). Data analysis by SARDI Climate Applications.

Chance (%) of high temperatures Minnipa Roseworthy Temp (C) 15 -Sep Minnipa Rose 15 -Oct Minnipa Rose 30 3. 6% 0. 7% 16% 8. 7% 35 0. 2% 0. 0% 3. 5% 1. 2%

Difficult to pick thresholds No damage at 30, 20% loss at 32 Model becomes very sensitive to phenology. Measurement and comparison is very sensitive to phenology.

Heat stress in wheat Tiny. Tag measuring temp/hum Heater Thermostat control Chamber

Frost chamber at Australian Centre for Functional Genomics Large GRDC investment in phenotyping for frost tolerance in wheat and barley - short term ‘traffic light’ for varieties, long term foundation for breeding.

Testing Hypothesis of ENSO and spring days over 30 • P values. <0. 1 marked in bold

40% Mean 23° Std 2. 2° 60% Mean 32° Std 4. 5°

Seven main changes 1. Mean temperature: 2. Extreme heat 3. Frost risk 4. Rainfall (autumn winter spring summer) 5. Rainfall intensity 6. Evaporation 7. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere Richard Eckard: Physical…Policy…. Peripheral

Frost • Quicker development • Drying in spring • Change in weather patterns and inflow of polar air

Difficult to pick thresholds No damage at 30, 20% loss at 32 Model becomes very sensitive to phenology. Measurement and comparison is very sensitive to phenology.

Port Pirie GSR (Met station 21043)

Port Pirie

Port Pirie The 2013 GSR was decile 8

What destroyed the sand castle ? The wave or tide ?

Port Pirie The 2013 column shows that between 2004 and 2013 there have been two decile 1 years, three decile 4, one decile 5, one decile 6, one decile 7, one decile 8 and one decile 9 year.

Port Pirie

"The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks. " - Dr. Wallace Broecker http: //www. cbc. ca/news/technology/story/2008/11/18/f-savorybroecker. html However – confidence in warming, heat events Rainfall is most worrying but also most uncertain