- Slides: 16
Making Climate Change Work: Challenges and Opportunities for Economy and Development in Cambodia Lay Khim, E&E Team Leader, UNDP Cambodia Asia Economic Forum – 7 April 2009 Presentation structure: 1. Climate change in SE Asia and Cambodia 2. Cambodia: Projection and implications 3. Potential opportunities 4. Current initiatives to build upon 5. Conclusion
1. Climate Change in SE Asia and Cambodia Temperature increase Figure: Projection of average daily maximum temperature (1980 s – 2090 s) © Water & Climate change in Lower Mekong Basin Project / Helsinki University of Technology & SEA START Regional Center http: //users. tkk. fi/u/mkummu/water&cc/ Climate scenario used: ECHAM 4 A 2
Changes in precipitation patterns – erratic, unpredictable Figure: Annual precipitation in the 1980 s and future change in % (decadal average: 1980 s – 2090 s) © Water & Climate change in Lower Mekong Basin Project / Helsinki University of Technology & SEA START Regional Center http: //users. tkk. fi/u/mkummu/water&cc/ Climate scenario used: ECHAM 4 A 2
Vulnerability to climate change Source: Reproduced with permission from EEPSEA. Vulnerability as composite of exposure to climatic hazards, sensitivity to the hazards, and adaptive capacity
2. Cambodia: Projection and Implications • Cambodia’s temperature would increase up to 1. 35 - 2. 50 C in 2100 • Annual rainfall would increase between 3 and 35% from current condition; lowland areas seem to be more affected than highland areas (Source: First V&A Assessment: with two Global Circulation Models (GCM) : CCSR & CSIRO, and two emission scenarios: SRESA 2 & SRESB 1) Cambodia mean annual temperature anomaly Source: Oxford University (2008)
Potential Impacts – floods & drought • Cambodia is vulnerable to floods and droughts. • High dependency on rain-fed farming makes agriculture sector particularly vulnerable. • Floods and drought are recognised as one of the main contributors to poverty. Map of flood-prone communes Map of drought-prone communes Source: WFP
Various implications • Past known economic losses: Between 1998 -2002, floods caused 70% of production losses of rice, while drought 20%. The floods of 2000 -2002 only caused USD 205 million damage. • Cambodia’s economy is rated as one of the most vulnerable to impacts of climate change on fisheries. (Allison et al 2009) Destructive floods have become more frequent in recent years. (INC) • Sea level rise – e. g. 1 m rise can submerge 56% of Koh Kong City damage to infrastructure, agriculture, tourism, and livelihood
Various implications (cont. ) • Significant implications for food security, especially in undiversified agriculture & economy (High dependency on single crop rice and low processing capacity within the country) • Risk of water quality degradation and sanitation • Health: increase in water-related / tropical diseases such as malaria and dengue. Neglecting climate change impacts could reverse the current development efforts and investments. e. g. Irrigation or infrastructure development scheme not considering future climate change scenario could fail due to changing climatic conditions in the near future.
3. Potential opportunities • Appropriate technologies for climate change adaptation, energy efficiency and renewable energy schemes available for transfer to developing countries • Low carbon economy will enhance economic efficiency • Benefits from carbon trading / financing • Climate change related financing increasingly available (bilateral donors, UNDP, WB, etc. ) • Scope for private sector engagement , contribution & benefit.
Opportunities for low carbon economy and enhanced economic efficiency • Energy supply – e. g. improved supply and distribution efficiency, Renewable sources, security and access • Transport – e. g. Hybrid vehicles, emission standards, biofuels, • • Public transport, non-motorised transport Buildings – e. g. passive and active solar integrated buildings, improved insulation Industry – e. g. Upgrading of factories, processing lines / schemes etc. Agriculture – e. g. improved agricultural practices • • Waste management – e. g. landfill methane recovery; waste to • energy; composting; recycling and waste minimization Forestry – e. g. Reforestation; forest management; reduced deforestation (Examples from IPCC)
Carbon Finance • Carbon trade global value: 2006 USD 31 billion 2007 USD 64 billion 2008 USD 118 billion Source: New Carbon Finance • Untapped potential in Cambodia and SE Asia in carbon finance: - Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) e. g. Samrong Thom Methane-fired Power Generation Total GHG emission reduction for 7 years: 47, 544 t. CO 2 e Total income at $15/t. CO 2 e: US$ 713, 160 - Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD)
One Cambodia example: benefits for investor Samrong Thom Methane-fired Power Generation Invest in Biogas Digester Invest in GHG emission reduction $$$ Pig sale $$$ Electricity sale $$$ Carbon credit
• 4. Initiatives to build upon in Cambodia Highest-level recognition of climate change as a threat to Cambodia: Rectangular Strategy-II (Sept 2008) Policy tools increasingly available (NAPA) • Institutions and policy tools being set up (e. g. National Committee on Climate Change involving 19 ministries / govt agencies; National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)) • Increasing recognition of schemes such as CDM and REDD by government and non-government entities • Various financial and technical support potential from development partners • Growing private sector
5. Conclusion • Climate change is not an environmental issue – it is a developmental challenge & potential opportunity • Neglecting climate change impacts could reverse the current development efforts and investments. Cost of not acting is significant. • Measures to create crisis resilient economy have a lot in common with increasing adaptive capacity to climate change, when due consideration is made. • Ensure climate change mainstreaming in all sectors: agriculture, water, finance, health, infrastructure, energy, transport, construction, tourism… various tools, technologies and financial resources available for the governments, private sector and CSOs • Major role for private sector in creating: - low-carbon economy (cleaner and more cost-effective development) - self-reliant & resilient economy - expanding appropriate climate change adaptation schemes
Furthermore: • Still great scope of regional collaboration in financing, technology transfer, research & development, information and data sharing e. g. high resolution climate data available in Japan would help include many important future climate characteristics of the SE Asia region, especially tropical storm. e. g. more responsible Direct Foreign Investments should ensure climate change considerations both in mitigation and adaptation terms.
Thank you For UNDP’s work on climate change in Cambodia, please contact: Lay Khim, Team Leader & Assistant Country Director, l. khim@undp. org Halley Mc. Cann, Climate Change Programme Analyst, halley. mccann@undp. org Environment & Energy Cluster UNDP Cambodia Some images in the presentation reproduced with permissions from: • Economy and Environment Programme for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA) • Helsinki University of Technology • Southeast Asia START Regional Centre