Climate Change Mitigation Options in the Forest Sector
- Slides: 40
Climate Change Mitigation Options in the Forest Sector Werner A. Kurz Natural Resources Canada Canadian Forest Service Western Forestry Contractors’ Association Kelowna BC February 8, 2018
Impacts of climate change occur today – and will increase! 2
Emissions from fossil fuel use and industry Global emissions from fossil fuel and industry: 36. 2 ± 2 Gt. CO 2 in 2016, 62% over 1990 Projection for 2017: 36. 8 ± 2 Gt. CO 2, 2. 0% higher than 2016 Uncertainty is ± 5% for one standard deviation (IPCC “likely” range) Estimates for 2015 and 2016 are preliminary. Growth rate is adjusted for the leap year in 2016. Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2017; Global Carbon Budget 2017
Fate of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions (2007– 2016) Sources = Sinks 17. 2 Gt. CO 2/yr 34. 4 Gt. CO 2/yr 46% 88% 30% Fossil fuel burning, cement 11. 0 Gt. CO 2/yr 12% 24% 4. 8 Gt. CO 2/yr 8. 8 Gt. CO 2/yr Deforestation, land-use change Budget Imbalance: (the difference between estimated sources & sinks) 6% 2. 2 Gt. CO 2/yr Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton and Nassikas 2017; Hansis et al 2015; Le Quéré et al 2017; Global Carbon Budget 2017
5 Paris Agreement • Ambitious temperature target well below 2 o C. • The submissions on intended Nationally. Determined Contributions (NDCs) from ~148 countries recognise the importance of the land sector in achieving GHG emission reduction targets. 5 2
Net negative emissions required to achieve < 2 o. C In the lead up to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report new scenarios have been developed to more systematically explore key uncertainties in future socioeconomic developments <2 o. C Five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been developed to explore challenges to adaptation and mitigation. Shared Policy Assumptions (SPAs) are used to achieve target forcing levels (W/m 2). Marker Scenarios are indicated. Source: Riahi et al. 2016; IIASA SSP Database; Global Carbon Budget 2017
7 We’re looking for new, ground-breaking, transformational approaches to converting CO 2 emissions into valuable products. Source: http: //carbon. xprize. org/news/introducing-20 m-nrg-cosia-carbon-xprize Tuesday Sept 29, 2015
8 We’re looking for … approaches to converting CO 2 emissions into valuable products.
~ 1 million cubic meters of wood ~ 1 Mt CO 2 BC annual harvest ~67 times this amount BC emissions from other sectors ~63 Mt CO 2 9
10 Mitigation Strategies: Need for Systems Perspective Minimise net Emissions to the Atmosphere Maximise Carbon Stocks Non-forest Land Use Land-use Sector Biofuel Fossil Fuel Wood Products Other Products Forest Ecosystems Forest Sector Source: IPCC 2007, AR 4 WG III, Forestry Services used by Society
Fossil Emissions Maximise Carbon stocks Forest Ecosystems Biofuel Fossil Fuel Wood Products Other Products Fossil Emissions or maximise Carbon uptake? Forest Ecosystems Biofuel Fossil Fuel Wood Products Other Products Services used by Society 11
12 Systems Perspective Design of climate change mitigation portfolios in the forest sector should account for changes in C in § forest ecosystems, § in harvested wood products, and § for changes in emission from substitution benefits relative to a base case. 12
Options forest sector mitigation activities: Forest Ecosystem Increase sinks through forest management: fertilization, stand tending, tree selection, etc. Rehabilitation after natural disturbances (wild fire and insects). Reduce harvest residue burning. Harvest less / more depending on conditions. Increase afforestation and avoid deforestation. Harvested Wood Products Maximize carbon retention in long -lived products. Cascading wood use. Reduce wood waste at every stage. Divert wood products from landfills. Substitution Replace emissions-intensive products such as steel and concrete with wood products. Replace fossil fuels with bioenergy from wood waste, where appropriate. We have modeled some of these … 13
14 Mitigation analyses: analytical framework Forest Ecosystems Carbon Budget Model CBM-CFS 3 Biofuel Fossil Fuel Wood Products Other Products CBM FHWP Substitution Estimation CBM-CFS 3 and CBM-FHWP used for Canada’s National GHG inventory reporting.
15 National-scale Mitigation Analysis http: //www. biogeosciences. net/11/3515/2014/bg-11 -3515 -2014. pdf 15
Total (Mt. CO 2 e) Maximize Forest Management and HWP mitigation Cumulative emission reductions to 2050 (relative to baseline) 500 Increased 250 emissions Bioenergy feedstock 0 -250 Reduced Longer-lived Products (LLP) -500 emissions Harvest Less + LLP -750 Better Utilization+ LLP -1000 -1250 Portfolio Mix: 1180 Mt. CO 2 e -1500 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year 16
17 Mitigation Analysis for BC Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change: 2017 Study estimates that by 2050, 35% of BC’s emission reduction target can be contributed by the forest sector at less than $100/tonne of CO 2 e with additional socioeconomic benefits Open Access at http: //link. springer. com/article/10. 1007/s 11027 -016 -9735 -7.
Results (Xu et al. 2017) Best mitigation activities vary by region in BC : a portfolio of regionally-differentiated forest management and wood-use strategies can achieve 35% of emission reductions by 2025. Increased wood product emissions, but these reduced emissions from nonwood sources, and reduced emissions or enhanced sink in the forest.
19 Bioenergy Displacement Factor Mitigation benefit increases with carbon retention and displacement factor Structural ts Building i f e n e Products B n o i t a tig i r. M e gh Panels i H Packaging Paper Carbon Retention Time
20 Mitigation benefits by displacing emissions from concrete and steel through the use of wood products 6 story Wood Innovation Design Centre Prince George, BC Art Gallery of Ontario Toronto, Ontario 18 -story wood building UBC, Vancouver
Management options Thinned and Fertilised Silvicultural treatments to increase carbon accumulation per tree or per hectare. Fertilised Thinned Source: Brix 1993 Control
22 Climate change impacts affect mitigation options § Impacts of environmental changes on forests will be both positive and negative: growth, mortality, disturbances. § Understanding where, when and how these impacts will occur is necessary to design effective climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies for the forest sector. § Ongoing CFS research, in collaboration with universities and provincial agencies, will inform the design of regionally-differentiated mitigation strategies.
23 Can we reduce emissions from slash pile burning Alternate uses? Photo: T. Sullivan Photo: BC Mo. F
Can we capture energy and reduce non CO 2 emissions? Photos: T. Sullivan 24
25 Analyses and monitoring required for C mitigation programs Forest C mitigation and reporting its outcome in national GHG inventories requires tools and data to establish: 1. Business-as-usual baseline of C dynamics without mitigation action. 2. Projection of C dynamics to evaluate alternatives and design climate and cost-effective mitigation portfolios. 3. Monitoring actual C dynamics following implementation of actions. 4. GHG inventories report actual emissions, difference between baseline and actual required to demonstrate effectiveness of investments. 5. Investing into mitigation actions without monitoring will undermine the credibility and sustainability of mitigation financing
26 Conclusions § 2 o. C goal of the Paris Agreement cannot be reached without § reduction in burning of fossil fuels and § the global forest sector contributing to net negative emissions. § PICS team’s research therefore focuses on: § how the forest sector can mitigate climate change, § how forests will respond to the changing environment, and § what policies can help achieve mitigation objectives, cost-effectively and with the support of the public. § BC’s forest sector can make a significant contribution to mitigation. § This contribution increases if actions start soon and are sustained. § Effective mitigation strategies involve sustainable forest management, and use of long-lived products for C storage and substitution.
27 Werner Kurz werner. kurz@canada. ca Publications at: http: //cfs. nrcan. gc. ca/publications/search? query=Kurz
28 Recent Publications Kurz et al. 2016. Climate change mitigation through forest sector activities: principles, potential and priorities. Unasylva 246 (67): 61 -67. www. fao. org/3/a-i 6419 e. pdf Lemprière et al. 2017. Cost of climate change mitigation involving’s Canada’s forest sector. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. DOI: 10. 1139/cjfr-2016 -0348 http: //www. nrcresearchpress. com/doi/pdfplus/10. 1139/cjfr-2016 -0348 Smyth et al. 2016. Climate change mitigation potential of local use of harvest residues for bioenergy in Canada. Glob. Chg. Biol. Bioenergy. DOI: 10. 1111/gcbb. 12387 http: //onlinelibrary. wiley. com/doi/10. 1111/gcbb. 12387/abstract Smyth et al. 2016. Estimating product and energy substitution benefits in national-scale mitigation analyses for Canada. Glob. Chg. Biol. Bioenergy. DOI: 10. 1111/gcbb. 12389 http: //onlinelibrary. wiley. com/doi/10. 1111/gcbb. 12389/abstract Xu et al. 2017. Climate change mitigation strategies in the forest sector: biophysical impacts and economic implications in British Columbia, Canada. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. DOI: 10. 1007/s 11027 -016 -9730 -z http: //link. springer. com/article/10. 1007/s 11027 -016 -9735 -7.
29 10 steps towards forest sector mitigation § § § § Grow more trees, faster, to increase carbon stocks § § § Anticipate climate change impacts and align mitigation and adaptation objectives Avoid land-use change (deforestation) Use harvested trees first for long-lived harvested wood products (HWPs) Maximize carbon retention in HWPs and reduce wood waste at every stage Maximize avoided emissions through wood use Do not burn residues or waste unless energy is captured Conserve forests in areas of high conservation value and of low risk of natural disturbance Monitor consequences of carbon management actions Obtain public support to use forest sector in climate change mitigation strategies
30 The future of forest carbon management? § Placing a price on carbon enables protection, planting and silvicultural activities that in the past have been considered “uneconomical”. § § Will a carbon price lead to shifts in societal values? § Government investments to enhance forest carbon sinks can contribute to climate-effective, cost-effective mitigation portfolios. § Forest carbon management demonstration areas can help improve public understanding and acceptance of carbon-focused management. § Monitoring of carbon dynamics required to demonstrate value of mitigation investments. Climate change impacts (fire, insects, drought) will create many dead trees: salvage logging, site rehabilitation, assisted tree migration and enhanced silviculture can help increase C sinks relative to the “no action” scenario.
Emissions Projections for 2017 Global emissions from fossil fuels and industry are projected to rise by 2. 0% in 2017 The global projection has a large uncertainty, ranging from +0. 8% to +3. 0% Source: CDIAC; Jackson et al 2017; Le Quéré et al 2017; Global Carbon Budget 2017
Pathways that avoid 2°C of warming According to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) that avoid 2°C of warming, global CO 2 emissions need to decline rapidly and cross zero emissions after 2050 Source: Riahi et al. 2016; IIASA SSP Database; Global Carbon Budget 2017
33 BECCS: Bioenergy with Carbon Capture & Storage § Estimates of required cumulative CO 2 removal using BECCS to achieve < 2 o. C increase vary by study. § IPCC estimate ~600 Gt CO 2 cumulative removals by 2100 § Land required for bioenergy plantations: 500+ Mha § Competing with other wood uses, food and other land values. § Current operational BECCS capacity: ~ZERO.
34 BECCS: Bioenergy with Carbon Capture & Storage § Let the promise of unrealistically large future sinks from BECSS and the land sector not become an excuse to not reduce fossil fuel emissions. § If the land sector fails to deliver these large sinks then the temperature goals will be even less attainable. § However, the land sector and in particular forests can contribute to climate change mitigation strategies.
35 Max. C uptake (NEP) and max. C stocks occur at different stand ages: we cannot “maximise” both at the same time, = Net Primary Production = Net Ecosystem Production Stand age = Heterotrophic Respiration Source: Kurz et al. 2013
Results Scenarios: Planting and ‘better growth’. Planting and better growth enhanced forest sink
Results Scenarios: Harvest Less Increased emissions from non-wood energy and products, but reduced emissions from wood products, Overall mitigation and enhanced forest sinks.
Results Scenarios: Longer-lived wood products Created more longlived structural wood products, to reduce emissions from energyintensive materials, Overall mitigation and reduce emissions from shortlived wood products 38
Results The best mitigation activities vary by region: create a portfolio of regionallydifferentiated forest management and wood-use strategies to maximize GHG reduction. Increased wood product emissions, but these reduced emissions from nonwood sources, and reduced emissions or enhanced sink in the forest. Portfolio
40 Uncertainties and research needs § How sustainable is forest management in a changing climate (regeneration)? § Changes in disturbance rates (fire, insects) and risk to mitigation strategies? § Life cycle analyses of wood products, substitution and elasticity of demand? § Upper bounds of forest sector contribution to net negative emissions? § Expansion of forest area, enhancement of forest productivity, § Optimum use of long-lived wood products and biomass for energy. § Costs of mitigation actions (relative to other options) § Co-benefits and trade-offs? § Responses of unmanaged forest lands (forests, peatlands, permafrost)?
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