CLIMATE CHANGE What it really means for Kenya

CLIMATE CHANGE: What it really means for Kenya Isaiah Kipyegon Communications & Advocacy NCA – Eastern Africa

WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE? • Simplified Definition: Climate Change can be defined as the long term changes in the average weather pattern of a region observed over a period of time. Key weather conditions that change are temperature, precipitation and sea levels. • Causes: It is caused by increases in greenhouse gases (GHG) in the Earth's atmosphere. GHG are emitted mainly by burning of fossil fuels(oil, natural gas, coal). These gases soak up heat from the sun but instead of the heat leaving the earth's atmosphere, some of it is trapped, making the Earth warmer. • Effects: droughts, floods, heat waves, storms, etc

WHAT ARE GREENHOUSE GASES? • The chief greenhouse gases (GHGs) which are responsible for global warming consist of Carbon dioxide (CO 2), Methane (CH 4), Nitrous Oxide (N 2 O), Tropospheric Ozone (O 3), and hydrofluorocarbons (HCFCs). • The principal way in which these gases operate is to prevent the escape of heat initially received from the sun by the earth’s surface, as short wave energy back to space 3

GHGs AND GLOBAL WARMING • By trapping heat energy at the earth’s surface, cumulative heating takes place over the years, and this is what has been referred to as “global warming”. • The continual increase in CO 2 and other GHGs in the earth’s atmosphere has already led to temperature increase, and is projected to lead to from 3 -50 C increase in temperature by 2100. 4

GHG EMISSIONS = CLIMATE CHANGE • Green House Gases are the products of industry, transportation, as well as changes in land use. • Approximately 70 percent of all the GHGs that have accumulated in the earth’s atmosphere have been put there by the US and Europe’ • The US alone is responsible for about 35% of the total GHGs. Wednesday, September 30, 6

Expected impacts § Water stress due to high evaporation and higher runoff § Agriculture: Lower production due to less water, land loss, uncertain seasons § Health - alteration of temporal and spatial transmission of disease vectors, e. g. malaria; § Ecosystems: More drying/desertification deforestation, fires increase, degradation of grasslands and endangering 40% of animal species; § Coastal zones: inundation coastal erosion, , degradation of marine ecosystems. 7 Valero Energy

Kenya’s vulnerability • Kenya and many other African countries are poor , facing major challenges such as Malaria, HIV and AIDS, weak economies, unemployment, food security and weak capacity and institutions • Temperature rises over many areas in Africa including Kenya will be greater than the global average. The general predicted rise is 4 C by the 2080 s. But temperatures could rise to 7 C in southern Africa and 8 C in northern Africa - almost double the global average

Kenya’s vulnerability… • Rising temperatures, widespread water stress, increased frequency and severity of droughts and floods, and rising sea levels will severely damage progress on development goals in Kenya and Africa. • Vector- and water-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue fever and cholera may increase. An additional 67 million people in Africa could be at risk of malaria epidemics by the 2080 s • The poorer, developing countries are the least equipped to adapt to the potential effects of climate change, although most of them have played an insignificant role in causing it.

Affected sectors • Agriculture sector: IPCC (2007) predicts that by 2020 many Africa countries could have agricultural productivity reduced by as much as 50% • Water resources: IPCC (2007) by 2020 75 – 250 mil. People in Africa exposed to extreme water stress. Lake Chad, Victoria, Baringo, Nakuru, drying rivers (20 out of 26 rivers have dried around Mt. Kenya - Mbari, 2007). • Aquatic and coastal resources: inland marine water fisheries including the coastal zone related to sea level use. • Security: conflict related to climate affected sectors e. g. grazing land, water. Conflict between wildlife & humans • Human health: tropical diseases e. g. malaria, Meningitis, African trypanosomiasis and cholera. • Tourism: loss of coral reefs, aquatic-life, wildlife, ‘good climate’ etc

Case study: Crises in Kenya • In 2004/2005 harvest, the cereal deficit had grown to 300, 000 metric tons, which means that up to 2. 7 million people needed food aid— an unusually high number for Kenya. (Jesse Allen, Earth Observatory) • 2005/2006 up to 70% of all livestock in Kenya died due to droughts & 3. 5 m people at verge of starvation President Kibaki declared yet another “national Disaster” in reference to the famine that affected 2. 5 million in northern Kenya. • Crop failure this year result in food scarcity

Case study: Crises in Kenya • More than 10 million people facing starvation currently – some have died! • Energy and water crises: All parts of the country have up to 4 days without electricity or water. • Crop failure this year as a result of lack of rain – some areas have not received rain for the last 5 years.

ADAPTATION • It has been suggested that adaptation is the only option for survival. A wide ray of adaptation options is available to help mankind deal with anthropogenic climate change. • It is rewarding to work out the cost of adaptation for each economic sector, such as water, agriculture, infrastructure, human health, tourism, transport, and energy. Wednesday, September 30, 13

Adaptation: Do or Die • WATER: Rainwater harvesting and Sand dams • ENERGY: Bio fuels, clean energy - for the energy-poor • FOOD: Crop diversification/mixed cropping - 37% of population in Kenya (WB, 2007)…. farm production adjustments livestock production, changing land use, irrigation and altering the timing of operations.

Communities work together

Complete sand dam

Jatropha

Problem with adaptation… * Kenya cannot afford adaptation! Poverty, underdevelopment, need ‘climate proof development’, * Kenya does not have adequate capacity a. Systemic capacity needs An overall policy framework to direct an integrated multisector, multi-disciplinary approach to Adaptation. Inadequate technology for adaptation (irrigation, etc b. Institutional Capacity needs Lack of defined institutional mandates and responsibilities, Specialized institutions with special capacity. Generally well-trained human resources to address global climate change.

Make adaptation work… • Adaptation fund – adequate, accessible, specified for Africa, legally binding contribution to adaptation fund by rich countries based on current & historical responsibility and capacity to pay • Technology development and transfer to support mitigation and adaptation – remove obstacles such as market-based IP rights • Integrate adaptation into development (planning, policy etc. )…’climate proof development’

Right to development • Right to develop vs. right to emit GHG in Africa – Emissions to meet basic needs & overcome poverty = human right! – Current level of devt. And technology cant allow clean production – Climate change debates must not put unnecessary barriers to development path of the poor in Africa – Developing countries to be assisted to reduce their GHG emission

Road to Copenhagen: What it MUST achieve • Copenhagen MUST achieve what Kyoto failed to – fair, effective and equitable protocol that deepens GHG emission cuts in industrialized countries and ensure greater mitigation and adaptation contribution by rich countries to poor countries, while at the same time safeguard the right to development for poor countries

What can developed countries DO? • Support sustainable development in Africa that is linked to climate change including cleaner production • Support adaptation and mitigation in Africa, especially among the poor and vulnerable • Insist on adaptation, sustainable development and poverty reduction in the UNFCCC • Commit deeper GHG emissions cut and model for other industrialized countries to reduce global warming • Technology sharing and transfer:

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