Climate change the latest evidence Professor Mike Hulme

Climate change: the latest evidence Professor Mike Hulme Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research LCVP Annual Conference, 15 June 2006, London • How certain can we be about climate change? • How do we manage the unavoidable? • How do we avoid the unmanageable? • Finding policy alliances for climate change The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI

can we be certain about climate change? The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI

UK warming

Physical evidence … the Vernagt Glacier, Austria The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI

Extreme central European summer temperature … 2003 Source: Luterbacher et al. 2004 The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI

CO 2 concentrations

Risk of overshooting 2ºC target Source: den Elzen and Meinshausen The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI

Changes in ocean p. H reduced by 0. 3 to 0. 4 by 2100 under IS 92 a (i. e. , a 100% to 150% increase in [H+]) Orr et al. 2005 (Nature)

how do we manage the unavoidable? … building a resilient society The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI

Tools for adaptation planning UK national climate scenarios Risk assessment framework UK climate change programme

Heatwave 2003 – health care • Record high temperatures (>37°C) in southeast England (and west-central Europe) in early August 2003 • 15, 000 premature deaths across west-central Europe, mostly the elderly • This led to UK National Health Service issuing a “Heatwave Plan for England” to minimise future adverse effects on human health

Public investment

how do we avoid the unmanageable? . . . building a low carbon economy The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI

Decoupling growth, consumption and emissions Source: UK Climate Change Programme

Trade, tax or technology?

Negotiating beyond 2012 Source: David Victor The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI

finding policy alliances for climate change The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI

policy alliances • energy security • ‘making poverty history’ • environmental protection • energy efficiency The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI