Climate change impact on pastures and livestock systems

Climate change impact on pastures and livestock systems in Kyrgyzstan Preliminary results June 2013

1. Research methodology: Stage 1: Generating future climate scenarios Stage 2: Assessing how future climate will impact on pastures and livestock management Stage 3: Recommendations for adaptation 2. Approach/Results For Altitude 1: below 1500 mts (winter pastures) For Altitude 2: 1500– 2500 mts (spring-autumn pastures) For Altitude 3: above 2500 mts (summer pastures) Regarding vulnerability and hazards 3. Recommendations

Research methodology

Stage 1: Generating future climate scenarios 1. Model selection: Six Climate Models (IPCC 5) 2. Gathering historical observations: Daily data from 78 precipitation and 44 temperature stations 3. Adaptation of internationally recognized statistical downscaling methodology (FICLIMA) to Kyrgyzstan climate conditions. 4. Verification process: To verify that FICLIMA provides sound results in Kyrgyzstan. Very good results in temperature and good enough in precipitation.

Stage 1: Generating future climate scenarios

Stage 1: Generating future climate scenarios 1. Model selection: Six Climate Models (IPCC 5) 2. Gathering historical observations: Daily data from 78 precipitation and 44 temperature stations 3. Adaptation of internationally recognized statistical downscaling methodology (FICLIMA) to Kyrgyzstan climate conditions. 4. Verification process: To verify that FICLIMA provides sound results in Kyrgyzstan. Very good results in temperature and good enough in precipitation. 5. Validation process: To assess if Climate Models (CMs) work properly in Kyrgyzstan. Sound results with 6 CMs for temperature and 4 CMs for precipitation (2 CMs rejected). 6. Production of future scenarios: 19 future simulations (2 -4 RCPs - carbon emission projections- for each CM) for daily rainfall and temperature for the whole 21 st Century.

Stage 2: Assessing how future climate will impact on pastures and livestock management 1. Information gathering: interviews and documentation review. 2. Identification of critical aspects of climate that affect pastures and livestock. 3. Building a set of indexes to measure how these critical aspects affect pastures and livestock (for example the beginning of the vegetative period). Verification with past observations 4. Application of indexes to the produced climate scenarios: to assess their future evolution. Stage 3: Conclusions and Recommendations Provide key findings and preliminary adaptation actions that would minimize negative climate change impacts and boost opportunities. To be discussed with Kyrgyz's institutions

Results

General Results High climate variability: extreme events and sharp changes in weather are being observed more frequently Future simulations (for mid-century, 2040 -2070) Sharp increase in maximum temperatures. Under medium carbon emission projection (RCP 45) increases of 2ºC-2, 8ºC. Under pessimistic projection (RCP 85) increases up to 3, 8ºC. The highest increases are expected in the North and the lowest in the North East; higher increases are expected in summer and autumn Moderate increase in precipitation (need to be considered with caution). Under RCP 45 12 -18% increase and under RCP 85 20 -28% (more relevant in the North East, slighter in the West). Sharper relative increases in winter and autumn. Not significant increases in summer. Intensity of precipitation is expected to increase

Altitude 1: below 1500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070)

Altitude 1: below 1500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will increase (more in autumn and summer) +2, 5ºC

Altitude 1: below 1500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will Minimum temperatures will increase (more in autumn increase in winter and summer) +2, 5ºC

Altitude 1: below 1500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will Minimum temperatures will increase (more in autumn increase in winter and summer) +2, 5ºC Precipitation is likely to increase in spring, autumn and winter, not changing in summer

Altitude 1: below 1500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will Minimum temperatures will increase (more in autumn increase in winter and summer) +2, 5ºC Warmer rains in spring More heat stress for livestock in summer Precipitation is likely to increase in spring, autumn and winter, not changing in summer Milder winters. Less cold stress for livestock

Altitude 1: below 1500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will Minimum temperatures will increase (more in autumn increase in winter and summer) +2, 5ºC Precipitation is likely to increase in spring, autumn and winter, not changing in summer ----- Present pasture availability ----- Future pasture availability In these graphs availability represents a qualitative dimension of the condition of pastures Warmer rains in spring More heat stress for livestock in summer Milder winters. Less cold stress for livestock

Altitude 1: below 1500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will Minimum temperatures will increase (more in autumn increase in winter and summer) +2, 5ºC Precipitation is likely to increase in spring, autumn and winter, not changing in summer ----- Present pasture availability ----- Future pasture availability Water balances will not probably change in spring, end of autumn and winter Warmer rains in spring More heat stress for livestock in summer Milder winters. Less cold stress for livestock

Altitude 1: below 1500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will Minimum temperatures will increase (more in autumn increase in winter and summer) +2, 5ºC Precipitation is likely to increase in spring, autumn and winter, not changing in summer ----- Present pasture availability ----- Future pasture availability Water balances will not probably change in spring end of autumn and winter Warmer rains in spring Water deficits in summer that will last until mid-autumn More heat stress for livestock in summer Milder winters. Less cold stress for livestock

Altitude 1: below 1500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will Minimum temperatures will increase (more in autumn increase in winter and summer) +2, 5ºC Precipitation is likely to increase in spring, autumn and winter, not changing in summer ----- Present pasture availability ----- Future pasture availability Water balances will not probably change in spring end of autumn and winter Water deficits in summer that will last until mid-autumn Droughts would reduce pasture availability Warmer rains in spring Water needs in arable land (fodder crops) will be higher More heat stress for livestock in summer Milder winters. Less cold stress for livestock

Altitude 1: below 1500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will Minimum temperatures will increase (more in autumn increase in winter and summer) +2, 5ºC Precipitation is likely to increase in spring, autumn and winter, not changing in summer ----- Present pasture availability ----- Future pasture availability The cold period would be 30 days shorter Droughts would reduce pasture availability Warmer rains in spring Water needs in arable land (fodder crops) will be higher More heat stress for livestock in summer Milder winters. Less cold stress for livestock

Altitude 1: below 1500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will Minimum temperatures will increase (more in autumn increase in winter and summer) +2, 5ºC The optimal growing period in spring would increase 10 days Precipitation is likely to increase in spring, autumn and winter, not changing in summer ----- Present pasture availability ----- Future pasture availability The cold period would be 30 days shorter Droughts would reduce pasture availability Warmer rains in spring Water needs in arable land (fodder crops) will be higher More heat stress for livestock in summer Milder winters. Less cold stress for livestock

Altitude 1: below 1500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will Minimum temperatures will increase (more in autumn increase in winter and summer) +2, 5ºC Optimal growing period in spring would increase 10 days Precipitation is likely to increase in spring, autumn and winter, not changing in summer ----- Present pasture availability ----- Future pasture availability The recovery period in autumn would increase in 10 days The cold period would be 30 days shorter Droughts would reduce pasture availability Warmer rains in spring Water needs in arable land (fodder crops) will be higher More heat stress for livestock in summer Milder winters. Less cold stress for livestock

Altitude 1: below 1500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will Minimum temperatures will increase (more in autumn increase in winter and summer) +2, 5ºC Optimal growing period in spring would increase 10 days Precipitation is likely to increase in spring, autumn and winter, not changing in summer ----- Present pasture availability ----- Future pasture availability The recovery period in autumn would increase in 10 days The cold period would be 30 days shorter Irrigated fodder crops might increase the number of harvests Pastures would face shorter latent periods in winter Droughts would reduce pasture availability Warmer rains in spring Water needs in arable land (fodder crops) will be higher More heat stress for livestock in summer Milder winters. Less cold stress for livestock

Altitude 2: 1500 - 2500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will increase (more in autumn and summer) +2ºC-3, 2ºC

Altitude 2: 1500 - 2500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will increase (more in autumn and summer) +2ºC-3, 2ºC Minimum temperatures will increase in winter

Altitude 2: 1500 - 2500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will increase (more in autumn and summer) +2ºC-3, 2ºC Minimum temperatures will increase in winter Precipitation is likely to increase in spring, autumn and winter (up to 20%), not changing in summer

Altitude 2: 1500 - 2500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will increase (more in autumn and summer) +2ºC-3, 2ºC Rains warmer in spring Minimum temperatures will increase in winter Slight increase in heat stress for livestock Precipitation is likely to increase in spring, autumn and winter (up to 20%), not changing in summer Milder winters. Less cold stress for livestock

Altitude 2: 1500 - 2500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will increase (more in autumn and summer) +2ºC-3, 2ºC Minimum temperatures will increase in winter Precipitation is likely to increase in spring, autumn and winter (up to 20%), not changing in summer ----- Present pasture availability ----- Future pasture availability - - - Future pasture availability (water deficit areas) Rains warmer in spring Slight increase in heat stress for livestock Milder winters. Less cold stress for livestock

Altitude 2: 1500 - 2500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will increase (more in autumn and summer) +2ºC-3, 2ºC Water balance will be positive Rains warmer in spring Minimum temperatures will increase in winter Precipitation is likely to increase in spring, autumn and winter (up to 20%), not changing in summer ----- Present pasture availability ----- Future pasture availability - - - Future pasture availability (water deficit areas) Slight increase in heat stress for livestock Milder winters. Less cold stress for livestock

Altitude 2: 1500 - 2500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will increase (more in autumn and summer) +2ºC-3, 2ºC Water balance will be positive Minimum temperatures will increase in winter Precipitation is likely to increase in spring, autumn and winter (up to 20%), not changing in summer it could change from current surplus to future water deficits at certain locations ----- Present pasture availability ----- Future pasture availability - - - Future pasture availability (water deficit areas) Rains warmer in spring Slight increase in heat stress for livestock Milder winters. Less cold stress for livestock

Altitude 2: 1500 - 2500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will increase (more in autumn and summer) +2ºC-3, 2ºC Water balance will be positive Minimum temperatures will increase in winter Precipitation is likely to increase in spring, autumn and winter (up to 20%), not changing in summer it could change from current surplus to future water deficits at certain locations ----- Present pasture availability ----- Future pasture availability - - - Future pasture availability (water deficit areas) Better climate conditions for pasture development in spring Rains warmer in spring Droughts could be more frequent an intense in some locations Slight increase in heat stress for livestock Milder winters. Less cold stress for livestock

Altitude 2: 1500 - 2500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will increase (more in autumn and summer) +2ºC-3, 2ºC Minimum temperatures will increase in winter Precipitation is likely to increase in spring, autumn and winter (up to 20%), not changing in summer ----- Present pasture availability ----- Future pasture availability - - - Future pasture availability (water deficit areas) Growing period will start 10 days earlier Better climate conditions for pasture development in spring Rains warmer in spring Droughts could be more frequent an intense in some locations Slight increase in heat stress for livestock Milder winters. Less cold stress for livestock

Altitude 2: 1500 - 2500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will increase (more in autumn and summer) +2ºC-3, 2ºC Minimum temperatures will increase in winter Precipitation is likely to increase in spring, autumn and winter (up to 20%), not changing in summer The recovery period will last 10 more days (delay in the first snows) Growing period will start 10 days earlier ----- Present pasture availability ----- Future pasture availability - - - Future pasture availability (water deficit areas) Better climate conditions for pasture development in spring Rains warmer in spring Droughts could be more frequent an intense in some locations Slight increase in heat stress for livestock Milder winters. Less cold stress for livestock

Altitude 2: 1500 - 2500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will increase (more in autumn and summer) +2ºC-3, 2ºC Minimum temperatures will increase in winter Precipitation is likely to increase in spring, autumn and winter (up to 20%), not changing in summer The recovery period will last 10 more days (delay in the first snows) Growing period will start 10 days earlier ----- Present pasture availability ----- Future pasture availability - - - Future pasture availability (water deficit areas) Cold periods will be 20 days shorter Better climate conditions for pasture development in spring Rains warmer in spring Droughts could be more frequent an intense in some locations Slight increase in heat stress for livestock Milder winters. Less cold stress for livestock

Altitude 2: 1500 - 2500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will increase (more in autumn and summer) +2ºC-3, 2ºC Minimum temperatures will increase in winter Precipitation is likely to increase in spring, autumn and winter (up to 20%), not changing in summer The recovery period will last 10 more days (delay in the first snows) Growing period will start 10 days earlier ----- Present pasture availability ----- Future pasture availability - - - Future pasture availability (water deficit areas) Cold periods will be 20 days shorter Livestock could benefit earlier from spring pastures Longer grazing periods Better climate conditions for pasture development in spring Rains warmer in spring Droughts could be more frequent an intense in some locations Slight increase in heat stress for livestock Milder winters. Less cold stress for livestock

Altitude 3: Above 2500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will increase in all seasons (more in summer) +2, 4ºC

Altitude 3: Above 2500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will Minimum increase in all seasons (more temperatures will increase in winter in summer) +2, 4ºC

Altitude 3: Above 2500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will Minimum increase in all seasons (more temperatures will increase in winter in summer) +2, 4ºC Precipitation is likely to increase in spring, autumn and winter (up to 20%), not changing in summer

Altitude 3: Above 2500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will Minimum increase in all seasons (more temperatures will increase in winter in summer) +2, 4ºC Better growing conditions for pastures Precipitation is likely to increase in spring, autumn and winter (up to 20%), not changing in summer Milder winters. Less cold stress for livestock

Altitude 3: Above 2500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will Minimum increase in all seasons (more temperatures will increase in winter in summer) +2, 4ºC Precipitation is likely to increase in spring, autumn and winter (up to 20%), not changing in summer ----- Present pasture availability ----- Future pasture availability Better growing conditions for pastures Milder winters. Less cold stress for livestock

Altitude 3: Above 2500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will Minimum increase in all seasons (more temperatures will increase in winter in summer) +2, 4ºC Precipitation is likely to increase in spring, autumn and winter (up to 20%), not changing in summer ----- Present pasture availability ----- Future pasture availability No relevant changes in water balance Better growing conditions for pastures Milder winters. Less cold stress for livestock

Altitude 3: Above 2500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will Minimum increase in all seasons (more temperatures will increase in winter in summer) +2, 4ºC Precipitation is likely to increase in spring, autumn and winter (up to 20%), not changing in summer ----- Present pasture availability ----- Future pasture availability No relevant changes in water balance Longer grazing period in summer pastures Better growing conditions for pastures Milder winters. Less cold stress for livestock

Altitude 3: Above 2500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will Minimum increase in all seasons (more temperatures will increase in winter in summer) +2, 4ºC Precipitation is likely to increase in spring, autumn and winter (up to 20%), not changing in summer ----- Present pasture availability ----- Future pasture availability Cold periods will be shorter (3 -4 weeks) Longer grazing period in summer pastures Better growing conditions for pastures Milder winters. Less cold stress for livestock

Altitude 3: Above 2500 mts (RCP 45, 2040 -2070) Maximum temperatures will Minimum increase in all seasons (more temperatures will increase in winter in summer) +2, 4ºC Precipitation is likely to increase in spring, autumn and winter (up to 20%), not changing in summer ----- Present pasture availability ----- Future pasture availability Cold periods will be shorter (3 -4 weeks) Longer grazing period in summer pastures Better growing conditions for pastures Livestock would benefit more time from summer pastures Milder winters. Less cold stress for livestock

Vulnerability and hazards Vulnerability to climate change: based on the influence of projected changes in temperature and rainfall on pastures and livestock

Vulnerability and hazards Vulnerability to climate change Heat stress and droughts in summer • Average maximum temperature will increase by 2, 5º-3ºC exceeding 30ºC. • Rainfall not expected to increase.

Vulnerability and hazards Vulnerability to climate change Heat stress and droughts in summer • Average maximum temperature will increase by 1, 5º to 2ºC exceeding 30ºC • Rainfall not expected to increase

Vulnerability and hazards Longer grazing periods and likelihood of Vulnerability levels droughts • Medium altitudes (1500 -2500 masl) • Increases in maximum temperature will not reach 30ºC • Milder winters • Rainfall will increase in spring, autumn and winter, and remain stable in summer • Increasing likelihood of water deficits in summer at certain locations

Vulnerability and hazards Vulnerability to climate change Longer grazing periods • Higher altitudes (more than 2500 masl) • Increases in temperatures • Shorter and milder cold periods • Improving conditions for pastures and livestock

Vulnerability and hazards Main changes in extreme conditions and hazards

Vulnerability and hazards Main changes in extreme conditions and hazards River floods and water logging in spring • Rainfall at low altitudes more intense in spring, affecting areas more susceptible to flooding. • Infrastructures would be more frequently affected, pastures less accessible and livestock could suffer more stress

Vulnerability and hazards Main changes in extreme conditions and hazards Mudslides in spring • Rainfall more intense in springs, increasing the risks of mudslides at medium altitudes • This could affect the access of livestock to spring pastures

Vulnerability and hazards Main changes in extreme conditions and hazards Flush floods and snow melting in summer • Increase in temperatures together with winter, spring and autumn rainfall (snow at higher altitudes) • Livelihoods more affected by these hazards (less access to pastures, damage in infrastructures, …)

Vulnerability and hazards Main changes in extreme conditions and hazards Heat stress in summer • Summer maximum temperatures will more frequently be over 30ºC. • Livestock (and people) will suffer more heat stress episodes • More probable droughts will reduce the availability of water needed to face heat stress.

Recommendations

Addressing variability and more frequent extreme events • Setting up an Early Warning System (EWS) to provide timely information about hazards and weather effects on livestock and pastures • Development of preventive actions to face more frequent climatic hazards (infrastructures, shelters for livestock, drainage, wind protection, silvopastoral protection of soils, etc. )

Addressing heat stress and droughts in low and middle altitude pastures • Improvement of livestock water supply systems and water points in the most vulnerable areas • Improvement of thermal insulation in stabling facilities for livestock using local experience and inputs (shadow trees, straw, ventilation, etc. ) • Promotion of silvo-pastoral systems for improving humidity of soils and shadow for livestock in summer • Improvement of vegetation cover / pasture productivity with native species / varieties tolerant to climate constraints (drought, heat stress, shorter latent periods, intense rains. . . ) • Support of fodder production in irrigated lands and haymaking in rain fed areas through seed production, storage systems, market promotion, irrigation improvement. . .

Promoting access to and protection of spring, summer and autumn pastures • Improvement and maintenance of infrastructures (roads, bridges, water points, shelters. . . ) and access to services (energy, drinking water, etc. ) to facilitate usage of spring/autumn and summer pastures and benefit from longer grazing seasons. • Promote river basin approaches and practices for the protection, conservation and management of land water resources (water springs, soil protection in the upper areas of watersheds, restoration of pastures, etc. )

Capacity enhancement and research • Promotion of research on: – Climate change impacts on pastures eco-system and productivity (hydrology, soil conditions. . . ) at local scales – Practices that enhance adaptive capacities of pastoral communities – Selection of varieties tolerant to climate constraints • Capacity Enhancement: – Raising awareness and training for integrating climate change into livestock and pastures management and policy making – Training of trainers (extensionists, service providers) and pasture communities on climate change adaptation and resilience practices

Climate change impact on pastures and livestock systems in Kyrgyzstan Preliminary results June 2013 Чон рахмат!