Summary of Michigan Motorcyclist Crash Data Presentation prepared
- Slides: 27
Summary of Michigan Motorcyclist Crash Data Presentation prepared by Dan Petterson, Ed. D. www. smarter-usa. org Last revised including notes - June, 2019 Copyright 2019 - SMARTER 1
The Source for the Majority of the Data Displayed in the Following Charts Traffic Crash Reporting System, Criminal Justice Information Center. Motorcycle Helmet Traffic Crash Statistics. Data for date range of January 1 to December 31 for the years 2009 -2018. Data provided on May 15, 2019. Copyright 2019 - SMARTER 2
Michigan Motorcyclist Fatalities per Year 1992 - 2018 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 1992 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 0 Copyright 2019 - SMARTER 3
Michigan Motorcyclist Fatalities 2007 - 2018 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 2007 8 9 10 11 12 13 Copyright 2019 - SMARTER 14 15 2016 17 18 4
Average Fatalities per Year 2015 -2018 2012 -2016 2007 -2011 113 118 123 128 Copyright 2019 - SMARTER 133 138 143 5
Michigan MC Registrations 2007 - 2018 270 000 265 000 260 000 255 000 250 000 245 000 240 000 235 000 230 000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Copyright 2019 - SMARTER 6
Average Registrations 2012 - high 2012 - 2016 2007 - 2011 2007 - low 0 50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 Copyright 2019 - SMARTER 7
Fatality Rate per 100, 000 Registrations 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Copyright 2019 - SMARTER 8
Average Fatality Rates – Registrations 2015 - 2018 2012 - 2016 2007 -2011 43, 9 45, 9 47, 9 49, 9 Copyright 2019 - SMARTER 51, 9 53, 9 55, 9 9
Michigan Population 2007 = 10, 001, 284 Population declined between 2007 - 2012 = 9, 884, 781 Population has increased 2013 - 2018 = 9, 943, 200 Difference between high & low = 116, 503 There is an increase of. 591% (less than 1) 2012 – 2018 Copyright 2019 - SMARTER 10
Fatality Rate per Million Population 2007 - 2018 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Copyright 2019 - SMARTER 11
Average Fatality Rate per Million Population 2015 - 2018 2012 - 2016 2007 - 2011 11, 39 11, 89 12, 39 12, 89 Copyright 2019 - SMARTER 13, 39 13, 89 14, 39 12
Crash/fatality Ratio 2007 - 2018 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Copyright 2019 - SMARTER 13
Average Crash/Fatality Ratio 2015 - 2018 2012 - 2016 2007 - 2011 0 5 10 15 Copyright 2019 - SMARTER 20 25 30 35 14
Percent Helmet Use - Fatalities 2008 - 2018 100 90 Helmet 80 No Helmet 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2008 9 10 11 12 Copyright 13 201914 15 - SMARTER 16 17 18 15
Helmet Choice % Compared to % of Fatalities 80 70 60 50 % hel/crashes 40 % hel/deaths % no hel/crashes 30 % no hel/deaths 20 10 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Copyright 2019 - SMARTER 2018 16
“Death Rate” Crash Victims by Helmet Use 8 7 6 5 Helmet 4 No Helmet 3 2 1 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Copyright 2019 - SMARTER 2017 2018 17
Actual Fatalities Compared to Predicted Fatalities had all Riders in Crashes died at the Rate of Riders Wearing Helmets 160 140 120 100 Actual 80 Predicted 60 40 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Copyright 2019 - SMARTER 2017 2018 18
Five year Total of Predicted vs. Actual Fatalities 1000 900 800 700 600 Predicted 500 Actual 400 300 200 100 0 2012 -2018 Copyright 2019 - SMARTER 19
What the data show Percent Increase 2007 -2011 vs. 2012 - 2016 10, 1 9, 6 9, 1 8, 6 8, 1 7, 6 Ave. Fatalities Ave. /reg Copyright 2019 - SMARTER Ave. /million 20
Michigan Specific Research Five Important Reports • Chapman AJ, Titus R, Ferenchick H, Davis A, Rodriguez C. Repeal of the Michigan helmet law: early clinical impacts. Am J Surg. 2014; 207(3): 352– 356. • Flannagan Carol A. C, Bowman Patrick J. Analysis of Motorcycle Crashes in Michigan 2009 -2012. UMTRI-2014 -35 November, 2014. • Rebecca H. Striker, D. O. , Alistair J. Chapman, M. D. , Rachel A. Titus, M. D. , Alan T. Davis, Ph. D. , Carlos H. Rodriguez, M. D. , F. A. C. S. Repeal of the Michigan helmet law: the evolving clinical impact. Am J Surg. Volume 211, Issue 3, March 2016, Pages 529– 533. • Patrick M. Carter, MD, Lisa Buckley, Ph. D, Carol A. C. Flannagan, Ph. D, Jessica B. Cicchino, Ph. D, Mark Hemmila, MD, Patrick J. Bowman, MS, Farideh Almani, MS, and C. Raymond Bingham, Ph. D. The Impact of Michigan’s Partial Repeal of the Universal Motorcycle Helmet Law on Helmet Use, Fatalities, and Head Injuries. American Journal of Public Health, November 2016. • Nicholas S. Adams et al. The Effects of Motorcycle Helmet Legislation on Craniomaxillofacial Injuries, Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery (2017). Copyright 2019 - SMARTER 21
Repeal of the Michigan helmet law: early clinical impacts. • • RESULTS After the repeal, nonhelmeted motorcyclists rose from 7% to 29%. There was no difference in mortality rate after admission; however, Crash scene fatalities increased significantly. Intensive care unit length of stay, mechanical ventilation time, and cost of stay were also higher in the nonhelmeted cohort. CONCLUSIONS Our study highlights the negative ramifications of repealing a mandatory helmet law. Motorcyclists not wearing helmets increased significantly in a short period of time. Nonhelmeted motorcyclists more frequently died on the scene, spent more time in the intensive care unit, required longer ventilator support, and had higher medical costs. Copyright 2019 - SMARTER 22
Analysis of Motorcycle Crashes in Michigan 2009 -2012. • Key results: In the crash population, helmet use dropped from 98% in 2008 -2011 to 74% in 2012 and 2013 after modification of the helmet law. • Before and after the modification, the percentage of out-of-state riders who were involved in Michigan crashes has remained stable at 5%. This is one way of estimating whethere has been any change in out-of-state ridership after the modification. • Helmet use rates for crash-involved riders age 16 -20 dropped from 97% before the modification to 86% afterwards. • Riders without motorcycle endorsements are somewhat less likely to wear a helmet, compared those with endorsements. • Risk of fatality is 2. 8 times higher for motorcycle riders who are not wearing a helmet. • Risk of incapacitating injury is 1. 4 times higher for motorcycle riders who are not wearing a helmet. • The fatality rate in 2013 is the highest in 5 years at 3. 6% of crash-involved riders. The overall rate since the modification is 8% higher than the overall rate for the three previous years. • Regression models were used to estimate the number of fatalities and serious injuries attributable to changes in helmet use since the modification. Based on these models, 20% (24 per year) of fatalities and 10% (71 per year) of serious injuries were estimated to have resulted from reduced helmet use after the helmet-law modification. Copyright 2019 - SMARTER 23
Repeal of the Michigan helmet law: the evolving clinical impact. RESULTS: Nonhelmeted riders increased from 7% to 28% after the repeal. Nonhelmeted crash scene fatalities were higher after the repeal. The nonhelmeted cohort had significantly higher in-patient mortality. The nonhelmeted cohort had significantly higher injury severity score. The nonhelmeted cohort had significantly higher abbreviated injury scale head. • Nonhelmeted riders had increased alcohol use, intensive care unit length of stay and need for mechanical ventilation. • The median hospital cost for the non-helmeted cohort was higher. • • • CONCLUSIONS: The impact of the Michigan helmet law repeal continues to evolve. Three years after this legislative change, we are now observing increased injury severity score, higher in-patient mortality, and worse neurologic injury. Copyright 2019 - SMARTER 24
The Impact of Michigan’s Partial Repeal of the Universal Motorcycle Helmet Law on Helmet Use, Fatalities, and Head Injuries. • • • FINDINGS Helmet use decreased in crash involved riders after repeal Helmet use decreased in trauma involved riders after repeal Overall fatalities did not change Head injuries and neurosurgical intervention increased after repeal Helmet nonuse, alcohol intoxication, intersection crashes and crashes at higher speed limits increased fatality risk. Helmet nonuse and alcohol intoxication increased odds of head injury. Conclusions Michigan’s helmet law repeal resulted in a 24% to 27% helmet use decline among riders in crashes and a 14% increase in head injury. Copyright 2019 - SMARTER 25
The Effects of Motorcycle Helmet Legislation on Craniomaxillofacial Injuries • CMF injuries were analyzed 3 yrs. before and 3 yrs. after law change • Under the new law, the proportion of motorcycle trauma patients who were riding w/o helmets more than doubled • Compared to helmeted patients, those not wearing helmets were about twice as likely to sustain CMF injuries • The difference was significant for both fractures and soft tissue injuries. • Patients w/o helmets has higher injury severity scores • Before & after the change in the helmet law, unhelmeted patients had higher blood alcohol content. Copyright 2019 - SMARTER 26
Conclusion • Five years of data and five Michigan specific research studies show: Repealing our all-rider helmet law was a tragic, costly and deadly mistake Copyright 2019 - SMARTER 27
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