Looked but Failed to See Motorcyclist Right of

Looked but Failed to See Motorcyclist Right of Way Violation Caused Crashes Dan Petterson, Ed. D. petterson@pobox. com www. smarter-usa. org SMARTER Jan. 2019 1

Introduction The SMARTER web site is the one-stop spot for accessing motorcyclist safety research Have you visited the site? A decade of work gathering, reading, assessing and organizing the available motorcyclist safety research SMARTER Jan. 2019 2

Todays Purpose - LBFTS • Extent of the problem • Look at relevant research • Identify the main causes as suggested by the research • Compare car & MC • Suggest possible solutions as indicated by the research SMARTER Jan. 2019 3

Some abbreviations • ROW - right of way • ROWV - right of way violation(s) • OV - other vehicle • OVD - other vehicle driver • TSE – traffic scanning error • LBFTS – looked but failed to see SMARTER Jan. 2019 4

Extent of LBFTS ROWV Caused Crashes • What is the extent of Right of Way (ROW) violation caused motorcyclist crashes? • What % of motorcyclist crashes are caused by other vehicle driver (OVD) violating the motorcyclists ROW? • Out of 100 motorcyclist crashes, how many are caused by the OVD violating the motorcyclists ROW? SMARTER Jan. 2019 5

Possible Answers • About 75 or maybe more • 65 – 75 • 50 – 65 • 35 – 50 • 35 or less Talk about this SMARTER Jan. 2019 6

Traditional Answer • About 75 or maybe more • 65 – 75 • 50 – 65 • 35 – 50 • 35 or less Most of us in the motorcyclist safety world have heard that car drivers violating the motorcyclist’s right-ofway in a major cause of motorcyclist crashes. We have been told this (and probably told others) that it happens a lot, or often or much of the time. In gathering the data for this presentation I found statements similar to this on several web site. SMARTER Jan. 2019 7

Where does this originate? Two conclusions from the Hurt Study 1. Approximately three fourths of these motorcycle accidents involved collision with another vehicle, which was most often a passenger automobile 2. The failure of motorists to detect and recognize motorcycles in traffic is the predominating cause of motorcycle accidents. The driver of the other vehicle involved in collision with the motorcycle did not see the motorcycle before the collision, or did not see the motorcycle until too late to avoid the collision. • These two Hurt Study conclusions have often been wrongly interpreted to mean that 3/4 th or 75% of crashes are caused by the OVD failing to see There was an additional conclusion we will come back to SMARTER Jan. 2019 8

Work our way down Not all crashes are multi-vehicle Not all multi-vehicle are OVD ROWV’s Not all ROWV are TSE Not all TSE are LBFTS SMARTER Jan. 2019 9

From the Top What is the extent of multi-vehicle crashes Not all crashes are multi-vehicle We already know the Hurt report = %75 but what does newer research indicate? (t) SMARTER Jan. 2019 10

Multi-vehicle Crashes • 1981 Hurt – 75% of crashes • 1996 NHTSA – 60% of fatalities • 2005 NHTSA - 55. 3% of crashes • 2006 Michigan (S. Spink) – 50% • 2007 Fatal Two-Vehicle Motorcycle Crashes lists for 2001– 2005 46% to 49% twovehicle SMARTER Jan. 2019 11

A few common multi-vehicle crashes that are not OVD ROWV’s • 3 -5 % of multi-vehicle crashes are car hitting the MC from the rear • MC’s also run into rear of cars • Speeding, careless, reckless driving by MC & OVD are not typically coded ROWV • MC’s also commit ROWV – i. e. motorcyclists violate the ROW of cars SMARTER Jan. 2019 12

ROWV? • Of the % crashes that are of multi-vehicle what % might be ROWV? • How many crashes out of 100 might be ROWV? Talk about % of multi-vehicle crashes and discuss what % of multi-vehicle you think might be ROWV. SMARTER Jan. 2019 13

Additional Hurt Conclusion • The additional Hurt conclusion often over looked is: In multiple vehicle accidents, the driver of the other vehicle violated the motorcycle right-of-way and caused the accident in two thirds of those accidents. • Hurt – Approximately 75% are collisions with another vehicle. 2/3 (of that 75 %) are OVD ROWV • Using this old data we should conclude that as many as 50 out of 100 crashes are where the OVD violated the motorcyclists ROW. SMARTER Jan. 2019 14

Still a Big Problem • But not as big as has been traditionally reported • 1981 – Approximately 75 % of crashes are multivehicle and 25% are single • 2/3 (of that 75 %) are OVD ROWV (50 /100) What does newer research tell us? We already know that more recent research puts the split between single & multi at about 50 – 50. So from the 50 crashes how many might be OVD ROWV? SMARTER Jan. 2019 15

ROWV research/data • 1996: Fatalities – 1/3 of the 60% that are multi-vehicle are OVD turning into the path of the MC – this means about 20 of 100 fatal crashes are ROWV by OVD • 2005: 14. 8% of 55. 3 % of multi-vehicle were rear end. Data are incomplete but this leaves about 41 out of 100 max. possible for ROW’s SMARTER Jan. 2019 16

Still a concerning problem (somewhat comparable to alcohol use) • We are trying to determine the scope of the LBFTS OVD ROWV caused crashes. • We know the percent of multi-vehicle crashes is more like 50 – not the 75 we often talk about • And we have determined that of the 50 multi -vehicle crashes maybe between 20 and 40 are due ROWV on the part of the OD. SMARTER Jan. 2019 17

Next step What % of OVD ROWV are due to traffic scanning errors (TSE)? Our task now is to examine the 20 - 40 out of 100 OVD ROWV caused crashes to try to determine how many (what %) might be traffic scanning errors (TSE) First lets examine some possible reasons for ROWV. What are some you can think of? SMARTER Jan. 2019 18

Possible reasons for ROWV’s (1) • Intentional act by OVD • Vision blocked by auto door/window post • Vision blocked by roadside obstruction – tree, light pole • Motorcyclist obscured by other traffic, OVD vision blocked by another vehicle –motorcyclist in a blind spot • Blinded by sun • Carelessness, thoughtlessness, distraction of OVD SMARTER Jan. 2019 19

Possible reasons for ROWV - cont. (2) • Failure to judge the intended action of the motorcyclist – motorcyclist had turn signal on but did not intend to turn • Motorcyclist not conspicuous • Motorcyclists speeding – thought there was a larger gap • OVD did not look • OVD looked but long enough • Looked but not in correct places • OVD LBFTS SMARTER Jan. 2019 20

Long standing problem – sparse research separating ROWV causes • 2017: The FHWA-MCCS attributed failure by the other vehicle driver as the cause of the crash in 51% of crashes. In those crashes (51% or 51 out of 100) attributed to the OVD, traffic scanning errors by the other vehicle driver contributed to 70% of crashes. (70% of 51 = 35. 7) SMARTER Jan. 2019 21

Not all ROWV are TSE and not all TSE are LBFTS • The previous slides list 13 possible reasons for ROWV. The below might be classified as TSE’s - did not look - looked but not long enough - looked but not in correct places - looked but failed to see Should different ROWV caused crashes be addressed with different countermeasures? Should different TSE’s be addressed with different countermeasures? (t) SMARTER Jan. 2019 22

Summary • Not all crashes are multi-vehicle (>50) • Not all multi-vehicle crashes are ROWV • Not all ROWV are TSE (>36) • Not all traffic scanning errors are LBFTS But we know it happens – what might be some causes? (t) SMARTER Jan. 2019 23

Traditional – 1981 Hurt - Conspicuity • Hurt Report - lack of motorcyclist conspicuity as a main factor in these types of crashes. • The evidence does indicate that bright colored clothing and daytime running lights (especially triangle shaped) can increase conspicuity. • Modulating headlight helps motorists determine the arrival time of the motorcyclist. SMARTER Jan. 2019 24

Conspicuity cont. • Conspicuity enhancements however are very dependent on environment and background. • The most important aspect of conspicuity is contrast with the environment, therefore there is no clear indication of which appearance is best in all conditions. • Decreasing value of daytime running lights SMARTER Jan. 2019 25

Conspicuity cont. • Most recent research has focused on developing innovative (unique) lighting configurations • Yellow lights and a vertical alignment SMARTER has posted 30 + research reports 1981 -2016 regarding motorcycle/motorcyclist conspicuity SMARTER Jan. 2019 26

There is more to it • While conspicuity (or lack thereof) certainly seem to be a component, conspicuity enhancements are not a total answer. How our eyes and mind work together to perceive or “see. ” What do you know about that? SMARTER Jan. 2019 27

Eyes and Mind • Beginning in the early 1990’s research began to emerge about how our eyes and mind work together to “see. ’ • The Misconception: You are aware of everything coming into your brain from your eyes from moment to moment. • The Truth: The brain can’t keep up with the total amount of information coming in from your eyes; your experience from moment to moment is edited for simplicity. SMARTER Jan. 2019 28

Eyes/mind Phenomena • • Saccadic eye movements Change blindness Motion blindness Inattentional blindness We will look a bit more closely at inattentional blindness SMARTER Jan. 2019 29

Inattentional Blindness • Inattentional blindness is defined as the event in which an individual fails to perceive an unexpected stimulus that is in plain sight. • Inattentional blindness is reported in the literature as a very viable, logical, likely cause for LBFTS OVD ROWV’s SMARTER Jan. 2019 30

Inattentional Blindness An Important Topic • If you haven’t read about this, the web is full of good information, including the early research. There are several theories about why this happens – expectation being a leading theory – in other words we simply do not perceive object in our direct sight if we do not expect to see • The literature often addresses motorcyclist conspicuity and inattentional blindness together – that’s confusing but rightly so as the two are interrelated SMARTER Jan. 2019 31

Sorry – we are not done • All of these factors apply to other vehicles in addition to motorcycles. • Do LBFTS ROWV happen with cars? • Do car drivers violate the ROW of other cars, trucks, etc. ? SMARTER Jan. 2019 32

Important Question • If our concern is for the motorcycle rider, we should try to determine if there any differences between LBFTS car v MC compared to car v car? Do all types of LBFTS ROWV happen more often with MC? Yes? No? What types? What could this analysis tell us about possible countermeasures? • What are the differences (if any) between MC vs car LBFTS ROWV and car vs car LBFTS ROW V? (t) SMARTER Jan. 2019 33

2011 - The roles of motorcyclist and car drivers in conspicuity-related motorcycle crashes. In absolute numbers, many motorcyclist crashes seem to be caused by car drivers However, when adjusted for exposure car drivers do not violate motorcyclists ROW any more often than they violate the ROW of other car drivers EXCEPT - one specific type of ROW violation. What? SMARTER Jan. 2019 34

What is the exception Only one priority situation where motorcycles seem to be at a disadvantage compared to cars. This is when a car makes a left turn, and fails to give priority to an oncoming motorcycle. Why is this specific scenario (car driver making a left turn) different for an oncoming car than for an oncoming motorcycle? What do you think? SMARTER Jan. 2019 35

2014 & 2016 - The Role of Lane Position in Right-of-Way Violation Collisions Involving Motorcycles These collisions seem related to failures in motion-perception which are partially caused by the motorcycle’s approach path in a left-of-lane position which, ironically, is partly intended to increase the motorcycle’s conspicuity. SMARTER Jan. 2019 36

Summary - research based possible causes of LBFTS 1. Speed/distance judgment error - motorcyclist speeding – difficult to judge the gap 2. Motorcyclist conspicuity – lack of 3. OVD lack of knowledge of motorcycling (dual drivers) 4. Inattentional blindness 5. Lack of motion detection clues where motorcyclist left-lane position contributes SMARTER Jan. 2019 37

Possible Countermeasures 1. Speed/distance error due to MC excessive speed – training & enforcement 2. MC lack of conspicuity – standardize MC frontal conspicuity, vertical yellow lights SMARTER Jan. 2019 38

Possible Countermeasures Cont. 3. OVD lack of knowledge of motorcycling – the dual driver info - ? ? ? – nothing much indicated in the literature 4. Inattentional blindness - teach drivers a new look system, ask & answer Q’s, take more time, look to specific distances, rock (move) while looking (SMARTER suggested based on inattentional blindness literature) SMARTER Jan. 2019 39

Possible Countermeasures Cont. 5. Lack of motion detection clues due to MC left lane position - standardized frontal conspicuity - rider training, if possible move to a lane position that presents a angled view to the driver – might be a time and space compromise SMARTER Jan. 2019 40

Summary • LBFTS is serious but not as great as often reported • There at least 5 research indicated reasons for LBFTS ROWV’s • Countermeasures to address the different causes of LBFTS OVD ROWV crashes logically should designed to address the specific cause as best as can be determined But all this might be interim as ITS could solve the issue in 15 years SMARTER Jan. 2019 41

Looked but Failed to See Motorcyclist Right of Way Violation Caused Crashes Dan Petterson, Ed. D. petterson@pobox. com www. smarter-usa. org SMARTER Jan. 2019 42