Crash to Crash Economy Security Economy Security Crash

Security Superbubble Crash to Crash Economy & Security

Global New Deal: 0, 1 % Security Superbubble Crash to Crash Economy & Security

C. M. Reinhart & K. S. Rogoff: This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of

Hybrid & High-End warfare: nuclear threshold? • Electronic & cyber warfare; • pshychological warfare;

Faith Depression: risk of collective emotional hijacking? • Continued economic and distribution malfunctions? •

Year 1: 100 X SDGs Climate Change Academia Business Education Governments & IGOs Media

Year 2: 100 X SDGs Climate Change Academia Business Education Governments & IGOs Media

Year 3: 10 X SDGs Climate Change Academia Business Education Governments & IGOs Media

Year 4: 10 X SDGs Climate Change Academia Business Education Governments & IGOs Media

1934 The Via Panisperna boys in the courtyard of Rome University's Physics Institute in

REGIMES & REGULATIONS WEAPONS & TECHNOLOGIES ENVIRONMENT ”BIG PICTURE” ENVIRONMENT CAT ALIVE CAT

• • Déjà vu? The pen-ultimate ”market correction”? antagonize, create tension and „arm

Ultimate ”market correction”: major power wars (again. . . )? • Does not work

Concerned scientists no more? • Scientific rigor puts bonus on mainstream cautiousness • Political

”Big picture” environment: old drivers – more relevant than ever • Terrorism & security

Mindustrial Revolution • A new age • advances in computer and related sciences and

Parallel worlds • Are we living at the same time in both, o 1930

Are there viable tools to keep Schrödinger’s cat (“Big picture” security environment) alive? •

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Crash to Crash Economy & Security • • Economy & Security: Crash to Crash Long Cycles? • Continuum Economy & Security: Crash no more? • Global New Deal: 0, 1% • Schrödinger’s Cat obal New Deal: 0, 1 % Security Superbubble Nuclear & WMD • • Schrödinger’s Cat Legacy 300. 000 Technological Revolution New Arms Race • • • Schrödinger’s Cat: Social Power? QE vs. Qualitative Tension Global Reconciliation: Pause for Peace Global Crash to Crash Security (A), B, C, D, I – Rogoff, Reinhart • Overinvestment Great Recession • 1983, 1962: Crash? Near Global Catastrophy • Near Misses: Day After E, F, G, H: 1890 s-1910 s & 1930 s Superbubble? • Great Recession Plus • New Arms Race • E, F, G, H crises Global New Deal: 0, 1 % • “ 800 years of Financial Follies” Great Recession Plus & Superbubble & WMD? • • Global New Deal: 0, 1 % • • Global Sources: 7 Stakeholders: 750 Enablers: 75. 000 Empowered 7. 500. 000 500 years of war cycles ≈ 1890 -1910 s, ≈ 1930, + WMD Existential, Planetary & Imminent? Fix Pre-Crash Pause for Peace Global New Deal: 0, 1 % Challenge for us • Oppenheimer: WAAS 1961 • Existential, Planetary & Imminent • 0, 1 %= 7, 5 million > 75 million

Crash to Crash Economy & Security

Security Superbubble Crash to Crash Economy & Security

Global New Deal: 0, 1 % Security Superbubble Crash to Crash Economy & Security

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C. M. Reinhart & K. S. Rogoff: This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, 2009

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IPFM

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Hybrid & High-End warfare: nuclear threshold? • Electronic & cyber warfare; • pshychological warfare; • sabotage; • release of dangerous forces • Directed energy, lasers, railguns, • hypervelocity projectiles, • new intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities, • military space capabilities, • robots & drones

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Faith Depression: risk of collective emotional hijacking? • Continued economic and distribution malfunctions? • After the economic bubble the collective psyche bubble to burst? o frustration, fear and anger o impacting collective unconscience and conscience o preeminence of collective raw emotions • risk of ideological extremism and societal polarization • Collective emotional hijacking by ”savior” thought leaders: a historical déjà vu? o populism o antagonization o trivialization of wars • XXI century ”emperors” a push of a finger away from weapons and technologies of mass destruction

Year 1: 100 X SDGs Climate Change Academia Business Education Governments & IGOs Media NGOs Religion & Faith 750 Pause for Peace

Year 2: 100 X SDGs Climate Change Academia Business Education Governments & IGOs Media NGOs Religion & Faith 75. 000 Pause for Peace

Year 3: 10 X SDGs Climate Change Academia Business Education Governments & IGOs Media NGOs Religion & Faith 750. 000 Pause for Peace

Year 4: 10 X SDGs Climate Change Academia Business Education Governments & IGOs Media NGOs Religion & Faith 7. 500. 000 Pause for Peace

Year 4: 10 X SDGs Climate Change Academia Business Education Governments & IGOs Media NGOs Religion & Faith 0, 1 % Pause for Peace

1934 The Via Panisperna boys in the courtyard of Rome University's Physics Institute in Via Panisperna: Oscar D’Agostino, Emilio Segrè, Edoardo Amaldi, Franco Rasetti and Enrico Fermi (Ettore Majorana not on the photo) Wikipedia

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REGIMES & REGULATIONS WEAPONS & TECHNOLOGIES ENVIRONMENT ”BIG PICTURE” ENVIRONMENT CAT ALIVE CAT DEAD Adequate Managed Muddle through Suboptimal Out of control Tension, arms races and major wars

• • Déjà vu? The pen-ultimate ”market correction”? antagonize, create tension and „arm the nation” ”Qualitative Tension” replacing QE

Ultimate ”market correction”: major power wars (again. . . )? • Does not work in age of WTMD!!! • This time is different: sending humanity back to the Middle Ages?

Concerned scientists no more? • Scientific rigor puts bonus on mainstream cautiousness • Political correctness dictates no hyping and no alarmism ? • Evidence-based science vs. policy-based evidence? • Industry interests define narrative? o No risk-shadow or no image-shadow should fall on industry o Regulation fatigue: overall pushback on all type of risks • Scientific community sleep-walking? • Scientists emotionally hijacked and drifting with the rest of their society? • Back to the 1950? Scientists eventually speak out? • Or, back to the 1930 s or 1900? Scientific great divide? o Joining national causes o some justified, others wrong o some of self-preservation others of conquest and annihilation?

”Big picture” environment: old drivers – more relevant than ever • Terrorism & security • Irrational state behaviour? • Geopolitical tectonic shifts

Mindustrial Revolution • A new age • advances in computer and related sciences and technologies, machine learning, data mining, networking, robotics, cybernetics, enhanced human intelligence and artificial general intelligence • reaching critical mass • Unseen opportunities and new productivity paradigm • new complexities o enhanced tensions within society: old and new divisions o safety, security and non-proliferation implications of new tensions

Parallel worlds • Are we living at the same time in both, o 1930 s and o 2030 s? • Superpositioned realities?

Are there viable tools to keep Schrödinger’s cat (“Big picture” security environment) alive? • Invisible hand of market: self-correction historically had not worked at times o 1900 s o 1930 s o 1900 s and 1930 s exit strategies: find the culprits outside of the economy (and the country) escaping into forging tension and massive armament programmes • Quantitative Easing (QE) exhausting its potential? Any other viable financial or economic tool?