PERAN PERAMALAN Manajemen perusahaan swasta pemerintah dan organisasi

PERAN PERAMALAN

Manajemen perusahaan swasta, pemerintah dan organisasi lain serta perusahaan manufaktur dan perusahaan jasa beroperasi dalam kondisi tidak pasti atau menghadapi risiko. Salah satu fungsi yang penting dalam perusahaan adalah FORECASTING (PERAMALAN). Ramalan adalah titik awal untuk perencanaan. Tujuan peramalan adalah mengurangi risiko dalam pengambilan keputusan. Dalam perusahaan, ramalan merupakan dasr untuk capacity planning, production and inventory planning, manpower planning, planning for sales and market share, financial planning and budgeting, planning for research and development and top management's strategic planning. Ramalan penjualan menjadi aspek yang penting dalam kegiatan manajemen keuangan termasuk anggaran, profit planning, capital expenditure analysis, and acquisition and merger analysis.

Ramalan diperlukan untuk marketing, production, purchasing, manpower, and financial planning. Top management memerlukan ramalan untuk planning and implementing longterm strategic objectives and planning for capital expenditures.

Marketing manager menggunakan ramalan penjualan untuk menentukan: q optimal sales force allocations q set sales goals q plan promotions and advertising. Perencanan produksi memerlukan ramalan untuk: + Schedule production activities + Order materials + Establish inventory levels Manajer produksi/operasi memerlukan: q ramalan jangka panjang untuk membuat keputusan strategik berkaitan dengan produk, proses, dan fasilitas. q Ramalan jangka pendek untuk membantu membuat keputusan dalam hal produksi yang memiliki rentang waktu beberapa minggu kedepan Beberapa bidang lain yang memerlukanramalan adalah: q material requirements (purchasing and procurement), q labor scheduling q equipment purchases q maintenance requirements q and plant capacity planning. q costs, prices, and delivery times

Jenis Ramalan Sales Forecasts Ramalan penjualan menentukan tingkat penjualan produk perusahaan yang diharapkan pada periode yang akan datang dan ramalan penjualan ini merupakan alat bagi perencanaan perusahaan dan fungsi penganggaran. Economic Forecasts Ramalan ekonomi diterbitkan oleh badan pemerintah dan lembaga proyeksi ekonomi swasta. Perusahaan dapat menggunakan ramalan ekonomi dan mengembangkan ramalannya sendiri mengenai pandangan bisnis eksternal yang mempengaruhi permintaan produk perusahaan. Ramalan ekonomi ini mencakup berbagai variabel yakni kesempatan kerja, tingkat bunga dan kurs valuta asing. Financial Forecasts Ramalan keuangan harus disusun secara terpisah dari ramalan penjualan. Hal ini mencakup ramalan variabel keuangan seperti jumlah pendanaan eksternal yang diperlukan, pendapatan, dan aliran kas dan prediksi kebangkrutan perusahaan.

Technolonical Forecasts Ramalan teknologi merupakan prediksi tingkat kemajuan teknologi. Pembuat software tertarik terhadap tingkat kemajuan teknologi computer hardware and its peripheral equipment. Perubahan teknologi akan menyediakan perusahaan dengan produk dan material yang baru serta memenangkan tingkat persaingan. Ramalan teknologi hanya bisa dilakukan oleh para ahli teknologi. Forecasts for Supply Chain Management Manajemen suplai melibatkan integrasi fungsi, informasi dan material yang mengalir ke seluruh perusahaan seperti pembelian material, merubah material, dan pengiriman produk kekonsumen. Semua bagian dalam rantai supali harus memahami peramalan seluruh item. Jika rantai toko ritail memutuskan untuk mempromosikan permen coklat untuk suatu minggu tertentu, maka hal ini akan meningkatkan permintaan jika ada diskon. Untuk menjamin suplai yang cukup kepada konsumen, maka pabrikan harus memahami kapan promosi dilakukan dan penyesuaian terhadap produksi dan kapasitas produksi agar dapat memenuhi kebutuhan konsumen. Pedagang besar harus memiliki persediaan yang cukup untuk memenuhi kebutuhan ritail. Seringkali para rital tidak mensharing rencana strategiknya dengan sekutu rantai

What technique or techniques to select depends on the following criteria: q What is the cost associated with developing the forecasting model compared with potential gains resulting from its use? The choice is one of benefit-cost trade-off. q How complicated are the relationships that are being forecasted? q Is it for short-run or long-run purposes? q How much accuracy is desired? q Is there a minimum tolerance level of errors? q How much data are available? Techniques vary in the amount of data they require.

Common Features and Assumptions Inherent in Forecasting Certain features and assumptions that underlie the business of forecasting. They are: 1) Forecasting techniques generally assume that the same underlying causal relationship that existed in the past will continue to prevail in the future. In other words, most of our techniques are based on historical data. 2) Forecasts are very rarely perfect. Therefore, for planning purposes, allowances should be made for inaccuracies. For example, the company should always maintain a safety stock in anticipation of stockouts. 3) Forecast accuracy decreases as the time period covered by the forecast (that is, the time horizon) increases. Generally speaking, a long-term forecast tends to be more inaccurate than a short-term forecast because of the greater uncertainty. 4) Forecasts for groups of items tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individual items, since forecasting errors among items in a group tend to cancel each other out. For example, industry forecasting is more accurate than individual firm forecasting.

Definisi peramalan (forecasting) menurut para ahli, antara lain: a) Menurut Jay Heizer & Barry Render (2011: 136), peramalan adalah seni dan ilmu untuk memprediksi kejadian di masa depan dengan melibatkan pengambilan data historis dan memproyeksikannya ke masa mendatang dengan model pendekatan sistematis. b) Willian J. Stevenson (2009: 72) mendefinisikan peramalan sebagai input dasar dalam proses pengambilan keputusan manajemen operasi dalam memberikan informasi tentang permintaan di masa mendatang dengan tujuan untuk menentukan berapa kapasitas atau persediaan yang akan dibutuhkan untuk memenuhi permintaan. Seperti, kapasitas yang diperlukan untuk membuat keputusan staffing, budget yang harus disiapkan, pemesanan barang dari supplier, dan partner dari rantai pasok yang dibutuhkan dalam membuat suatu perencanaan. Teknik proyeksi bisnis merupakan suatu cara atau pendekatan untuk menentukan ramalan atau perkiraan mengenai sesuatu dimasa yang akan datang

Dimana peramalan memegang peranan penting, antara lain: (Hartini, 2011: 18) q. Penjadwalan sumber-sumber yang ada, q. Peramalan pada tingkat permintaan untuk produk, material, tenaga kerja, finansial atau jasa adalah input penting untuk penjadwalan, q. Peramalan dibutuhkan untuk menentukan kebutuhan sumber-sumber di masa yang akan datang, q. Menentukan sumber-sumber daya yang diinginkan, q. Semua organisasi atau perusahaan harus menentukan sumber apa yang mereka inginkan untuk dimiliki pada jangka panjang.

Manfaat forecasting yaitu : q Lebih siap menghadapi perubahan situasi. q Merupakan dasar/ pedoman dalam perencanaan baik jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. q Untuk pengontrolan operasional perusahaan. Arti penting Peramalan q Hasil peramalan mampu memberikan gambaran tentang q masa depan perusahaan yg memungkinkan manajemenmembuat perencanaan. q Menciptakan peluang bisnis Mengatur pola investasi

Keterbatasan Peramalan q Kesalahan dalam identifikasi pola dan hubungan q Pola yg tidak tepat dan hubungan yg tidak pasti q Perubahan pola hubungan q Terjadi kejadian yang tidak dapat diramalkan Langah-langkah Peramalan 1. Mengumpulkan data 2. Menyeleksi dan memilih data 3. Memilih model peramalan 4. Menggunakan model terpilih utk peramalan q Peramalan ≠ perencanaan q Peramalan → digunakan utk memprediksi sesuatu yg mungkin terjadi q Perencanaan → menggunakan ramalan utk menetapkan target

Metode Peramalan Subyektif (Kualitatif) Juri dan opini eksekutif (jury of executive opinion) Metode Delphi (Delphi Method) Komposit tenaga penjualan (Sales force composite) Survei Pasar Konsumen (consumer market survey) Obyektif (Kuantitatif ) Pendekatan Naive Moving Average Weighted Moving Average Exponential Model Deret Waktu (Time series) Smoothing Proyeksi Tren (Trend Projection) Regresi Linear (Linear Regression) Model Asosiatif/Causal

1. Executive Opinions The subjective views of executives or experts from sales, production, finance, purchasing, and administration are averaged to generate a forecast about future sales. Usually this method is used in conjunction with some quantitative method, such as trend extrapolation. The management team modifies the resulting forecast, based on their expectations. The advantage of this approach: The forecasting is done quickly and easily, without need of elaborate statistics. Also, the jury of executive opinions may be the only means of forecasting feasible in the absence of adequate data. The disadvantage: This, however, is that of group-think. This is a set of problems inherent to those who meet as a group. Foremost among these are high cohesiveness, strong leadership, and insulation of the group. With high cohesiveness, the group becomes increasingly conforming through group pressure that helps stifle dissension and critical thought. Strong leadership fosters group pressure for unanimous opinion. Insulation of the group tends to separate the group from outside opinions, if given.

One example of the Jury of Executive Opinion takes me back to 1999 -2000, when I worked for catalog retailer Hammacher Schlemmer convened a weekly committee to estimate the orders coming in for the next two weeks from each of the active catalogs in circulation. The committee was made up of several marketing personnel, including myself (as I was the forecasting analyst!), and managers from the warehouse, in-bound call center, inventory control, and merchandising. We would begin every Wednesday morning reviewing the number of orders that came in for each active catalog, for the prior week and the first two days of the current week. Armed with that order information, and spreadsheets detailing order history for those catalogs’ prior years, each of us would indicate our orders forecasts for the next several weeks ahead. Our forecasts were then averaged, and we would then submit the composite forecasts to the warehouse and call center to assist with their staffing, and to inventory control to ensure adequate purchasing.

One of the nice things about the Jury of Executive Opinion is its simplicity. Getting executives to sound off is often pretty easy to do. Moreover, incorporating the experiences of a broad group into the forecasting process may enable companies to see the forest beyond the trees. However, simple and broad-focused as it may be, the Jury of Executive Opinion is not without its flaws. These meetings can be time consuming, for one. Indeed, at Hammacher Schlemmer, during the last three months of the year – when the holiday season was in tow – those weekly meetings could take all morning, as nearly a dozen catalogs could be in circulation.

Furthermore, group dynamics may actually lead to unwise consensus forecasts. The group is often at risk of being swayed by the opinions of those members who are most articulate, or with greater seniority or rank within the organization, or just by their own over-optimism. Another problem is that the passage of time makes it difficult to recognize those experts whose opinions were most reliable and whose should be given less weight. As a result, there’s no way to hold any individual member accountable for a forecast. Finally, executives are more comfortable with using their opinions for mid-and longerrange planning than for shorter period-to-period predictions, especially since recent unexpected events can also influence their opinion.

2. Delphi Method This is a group technique in which a panel of experts is questioned individually about their perceptions of future events. The experts do not meet as a group, in order to reduce the possibility that consensus is reached because of dominant personality factors. Instead, the forecasts and accompanying arguments are summarized by an outside party and returned to the experts along with further questions. This continues until a consensus is reached. Advantages: This type of method is useful and quite effective for long-range forecasting. The technique is done by questionnaire format and eliminates the disadvantages of group think. There is no committee or debate. The experts are not influenced by peer pressure to forecast a certain way, as the answer is not intended to be reached by consensus or unanimity. Disadvantages: Low reliability is cited as the main disadvantage of the Delphi method, as well as lack of consensus from the returns.

The Delphi Method has the following steps: STEP 1 – Various Experts are asked to answer, independently and in writing, a series of questions about the future of sales or whatever other area is being forecasted. STEP 2 – A summary of all the answers is then prepared. No expert knows, how any other expert answered the questions. STEP 3 – Copies of summary are given to the individual experts with the request that they modify their original answers if they think it necessary. STEP 4 – Another summary is made of these modifications, and copies again are distributed to the experts. This time, however, expert opinions that deviate significantly from the norm must be justified in writing. STEP 5 – A third summary is made of the opinions and justifications, and copies are once again distributed to the experts. Justification in writing for all answers is now required. STEP 6 – The forecast is generated from all of the opinions and justifications that arise from step 5.

3. Sales Force Polling Some companies use as a forecast source salespeople who have continual contacts with customers. They believe that the salespeople who are closest to the ultimate customers may have significant insights regarding the state of the future market. Forecasts based on sales force polling may be averaged to develop a future forecast. Or they may be used to modify other quantitative and/or qualitative forecasts that have been generated internally in the company. The advantages of this forecast are: It is simple to use and understand. It uses the specialized knowledge of those closest to the action. It can place responsibility for attaining the forecast in the hands of those who most affect the actual results. The information can be broken down easily by territory, product, customer, or salesperson. The disadvantages include: salespeople’s being overly optimistic or pessimistic regarding their predictions and inaccuracies due to broader economic events that are largely beyond their control.

When companies have a product that is sold by sales agents in specific territories, it is not uncommon for them to seek the opinions of their sales representatives or branch/territory managers in developing forecasts for each product line. In fact, sales representatives’ opinions can be quite useful, since they are generally close to the customer, and may be able to provide useful insights into purchase intent. Essentially, these companies have their agents develop forecasts for each of the products they sell within a territory. The added benefit of this approach is that a company can develop a forecast for the entire market, as well as for individual territories. Indeed, when I worked in the market research department of insurance company Bankers Life & Casualty during 1997 -1999, we frequently conducted surveys of our sales force and branch managers to understand how many longterm care insurance policies, Medicare Supplement policies, and annuities were being sold within each market, and how much were being lost to the competition. These surveys would provide a read into the market size for each insurance product at both a regional and national level.

While the closeness to the customer is a great advantage of sales force composite surveys, they too have problems. Sales agents have a tendency to be overly optimistic in their forecasts and may set unrealistic goals. In addition, because sales agents are close to the customer, their opinions are likely to be swayed by microeconomic decision purchases, when in fact aggregate sales are often driven by macroeconomic factors. Supplementing sales force composite forecasts with more formal quantitative forecasting methods, if possible, is often recommended.

4. Consumer Surveys Some companies conduct their own market surveys regarding specific consumer purchases. Surveys may consist of telephone contacts, personal interviews, or questionnaires as a means of obtaining data. Extensive statistical analysis usually is applied to survey results in order to test hypotheses regarding consumer behavior.

Marketing research in this fashion is often expensive, so often surveys of expectations are used when it is believed they will provide valuable information. Surveys work well for new product development, brand awareness, and market penetration. In our December 9, 2010 Forecast Friday topic, the audience of the expectation survey was mostly executives and other business experts. In this post, the audience is consumers. NCH Marketing Services, both the leading processor of grocery coupons and a leading coupon promotion firm – and also a former employer of mine – used surveys to obtain information on coupon usage. The company even asked persons how many coupons they took to the store in a typical month. From there, the company would estimate the number of coupons redeemed in the U. S. annually.