Introduction to Geography People Places and Environment 6

Introduction to Geography People, Places, and Environment, 6 e Carl Dahlman William H. Renwick Chapter 6: Population, Population Increase and Migration Holly Barcus Morehead State University And Joe Naumann Umsl

Population • Population geography – Distribution of humankind • Emigration • Immigration • Demography – Specific group characteristics 2

Distribution and Density • Current World Population – 6. 3 billion • Major concentrations – ranked by size 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. East Asia South Asia Europe from the Atlantic to Ural mountains Eastern United States and Canada Southeast Asia 3

World Population Cartogram 4 3 1 2 5

Population Density • Arithmetic density – Number of people per unit of area • Physiological density – Density of population per unit cropland • Carrying capacity The numbers of any population that can be adequately supported by the available resources upon which that population subsists; for humans, the numbers supportable by the known and utilized resources – usually agricultural – of an area. [closely related to physiological density]. 5

Definitions: • Birth Rate (crude birth rate) – Expressed as the number of births per year per 1000 population • Total Fertility Rate – The average number of children that would be born to each woman if during her child-bearing years, she bore children at the current year’s rate for women that age. Replacement rate is 2. 1. • Death Rate (crude death rate) – Expressed as the number of deaths per year per 1000 population. Also called mortality rate. 6

More Definitions: • Infant Mortality Rate – Expressed as the number of children who die between birth and one year of age in a year per 1000 population. • Population Pyramid – A graphic depiction of the age and sex composition of a (usually national) population. • Natural Increase – The growth of a population through excess of births over deaths, excluding the effects of immigration or emigration. This can be a negative number. 7

Even More Definitions: • Doubling Time – The time period required for any beginning total (population) experiencing a compounding growth, to double in size. • Population Density – the total population of a country divided by the total area in square miles or kilometers. • Physiological density – (population pressure) The number of persons per unit area of agricultural land. This is more meaningful than population density. 8

Factors Influencing Population Distribution • Climate – Low density – High density • Topography and soils – Flat areas = easier cultivation – Accessibility to water – Fertile soils • History – Domestication of plants and animals – Demarcation of cultural and political territories 9

World Population Growth • Crude birth rate • Crude death rate • Natural increase • Natural decrease 10

Focus on the last 600 years! 11

Exponential Population Growth • See Demographic Transition Stage Two 12

Population Explosion? • Click on the picture to see the video 13

Projections • • • Fertility rate Total fertility rate Replacement rate Zero population growth Doubling time 14

Population Growth

Population Pyramids – Age and sex structure of population • Dependency ratio – Proportion of population of working age 17

Demographic Transition • Many developing countries are in mid to late stage 2 of the transition. 20

Stages of Population Growth Birth Rate Death Rate Growth Rate Stage High 1 High Stable or growing slowly -long doubling time Stage High & beginning to 2 decline slowly Dropping sharply Continually increasing – short doubling time Stage Declining more rapidly 3 Dropping but at a slower rate Increasing but at a declining rate – doubling time still rather short Stage Low 4 Low stability, or declining – long doubling time 21

Demographic Transition Model • Stage one – Crude birth/death rate high – Fragile population • Stage two & three – Decreasing death rates – birth rate decreasing in stage 3 too – Infant mortality rate high – declining in stage 3 – Natural increase high – declining in stage 3 • Stage four – Indicative of richer developed countries – Higher standards of living/education 22

Population Growth • The meaning of large numbers is relative to a number of factors in each country. – Rate of natural increase – Average life expectancy – Carrying capacity or physiological density – Technological level of the culture and the level of infrastructure development • Increased physiological Density – increased population pressure 25

Growth – China & USA • China – A 1% growth rate in China means 12, 552, 910 more people the next year and slightly more the next. – Arable land (hectares person) 0. 10 • USA – A 1% growth rate in the USA means 2, 737, 540 more people next year and slightly more the next. – Arable land (hectares person) 0. 67 26

Pressure on the Land • Terraced rice paddies are very labor-intensive – 27 not a first choice method.

Carrying Capacity 28

Central America What accounts for growth here? 29

Canada’s population • Why the strange pattern? 30

Population Growth Projection 31

Population Structure • Broad base and narrow top will mean high growth rate • Yellow: stage 4 • Red: stage 2&3 32

Selected Countries: Patterns 33

China’s Population Policy • Under Mao Zedong – no emphasis on reducing population growth rate. • Under Deng Xiaoping – Onechild per family policy. 34

The Demographic Transition • The Western Experience – Four stages are based on the European experience • Today, we live in a world divided. – Developed vs. developing countries – Effects of urbanization and industrialization are taking longer to influence population growth rates in the developing countries. – Developing countries are not experiencing a gradual shift resulting from technological and social changes occurring within their culture – it is more a response to outside influences. 35

Difference in Transitions 36

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Urbanization – Developed World • Europe & North America grew with the industrial revolution – lower birth rates in urban areas of developed countries. 38

Urbanization –Developing World • Asia, Africa, Latin America, etc. increased as an alternative to rural poverty or famine, but there often wasn’t enough 39 industrial development to provide jobs – favelas and barrios

Life Expectancy • Infant mortality rate • Antibiotics/immunization • Rapid increase throughout world 40

Population - Developed Countries 42

Infant Mortality Rates 43

New Influences on Birth Rates • Family planning programs • Contraceptive technology • Role of mass media 44

Declining numbers of school-age children in some Asian countries – 2000 – 2020 CE What’s different about these countries? 45

Population Control • Obstacles – Manufacture/distribution expense – Religion – Low female status – Preference of male children (females marry and join their husband’s family) 46

Birth Control Programs • One family/one child policies (China by law) – Female infanticide – Social compensation fees • • • Sterilization (India: of men by persuasion) Loss of status Termination healthcare/food coupons Free birth control Increased literacy – important for success 47

Population Data and Projections • Population Data Sources – not always clear – United Nations – World Bank – Population Reference Bureau – National censuses -- • Population Projections – estimates of future population size, age, and sex composition based on current data. Based on observed trends. 48

Based on Census Data Projected Growth 49

World Death Rates • Infectious diseases – HIV/AIDS – SARS – affects lung mechanics • Degenerative diseases – Obesity – more serious in developed countries like USA – Tobacco use – legal, insidious, money-making addiction • Epidemiology – – all the elements contributing to the occurrence or nonoccurrence of a disease in a population; ecology of a disease • Epidemiological transition – infectious to degenerative 50

Estimated Number of Persons of Concern Who Fall Under the Mandate of UNHCR

Overpopulation? • Malthus and Neo-Malthusianism – Sees a direct relationship between the size of population and the means of subsistence. – Dire predictions were not realized because N. & S. America were discovered and could greatly increase the world’s carrying capacity – for a time – Can technology be counted on to forever push back the perceived limits on food production and pollution control? • Cornucopians – Optimistic perspective: technology will find a way, somehow – Jean Antoine Condorcet • Analogy of “fruit fly jars” 52

Overpopulation? • Overpopulation – relative term – according to whose perceptions? Has some relationship to carrying capacity or physiological density 53

Cartogram 1995 population • Note Africa & Asia 54

Cartogram 2030 population • Note Africa & Asia 55

Population Prospects • Worldwide Fertility Declines – – Effects of urbanization – Government programs – India, Singapore, China • Implications of Demographic Momentum – Age structure is significant in keeping growth going – large populations below age 15 keep growing – improved health extends the time in which they may procreate • The Aging of World Population – Even in developing countries – exceeding developed ones – Must be supported by the young. . . 56

Demographic Patterns • Sex ratios – Effects of • Ultrasound, amniocentesis • Male status • Aging – Increased median age – Rich countries • Sustaining economic growth • The “sandwich generation” • Medical needs – Poor countries • Young populations • Changing social needs 57

Spatial Behavior – Migration & Immigration

Spatial Behavior • Affected by perceptions • Affected by sense of space – Personal – Community • Aspect of culture 59

Mental Maps – personal perception of reality • Vary greatly according to one’s experiences & interests & reaction to distance decay – Influence our actions and decisions – Fred Broer’s visit to St. Louis -- 1965 • I was raised in N. St. Louis and N. St. Louis County – I have a fairly accurate mental map of those areas – S. St. Louis and S. St. Louis County are much less accurate in my mental map 60

Perception of Natural Hazards • Earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes, tsunami, mudslides, etc. • Why do people choose to live where they occur? – Great River Road north of Alton, IL • What they know – it’s home. • Hazards occur infrequently – another “flood of 93” isn’t expected for a long time. • Prohibitive cost of relocation 61

Activity Space • Personal Activity Space – realm of free movement • Territoriality – emotional attachment to an area – Personal space varies according to cultures – Ethnic neighborhoods – some persist for a long time 62

3 variables affect activity space • Stage in Life Course – age-group membership parameters • Mobility – ability to travel – Personal ability – ownership of mode of transport and/or funds – Public access available? • Opportunities – related to infrastructure and income – Few in a subsistence economy – Many in urban/industrialized economy 63

Spatial Interaction and Information • Barriers to Interaction – Distance – technology affects the parameters – Natural obstacles – rivers, mountains, etc. – important role of technology • Spatial Interaction & Innovation – centers of high interaction became culture hearths – ideas easily cross-pollinated there – – Middle East—Eastern Mediterranean Huang He Valley—Indus Valley Meso-America & Altiplano Europe since the Renaissance 64

MIGRATIONS

Migrations are as old as humanity • Early Humans migrated from Africa and spread to the other land masses of the world • Native Americans migrated across the Bering land bridge. • Africans migrated, against their will, to the new world • The Bantu people migrated and populated from West Africa to South Africa 66

Migration • Push factors – Drive away people • Pull factors – Attract people • Migration chains 67

Decision Process • Spatial Search – process by which alternatives are evaluated – Influenced by information available • Quality • Quantity – Influenced by the utility assigned to places and the opportunities at those places • A cost/benefit analysis of sorts • Push & Pull factors can work both ways 68

Migration of Peoples • • Prehistoric Europe to the Americas African diaspora Europe to Asia & Oceania Europe to Africa Indian Overseas Chinese 69

Prehistoric Human Migrations

Crossing Beringia (land bridge) • Most ancestors of Amerindians are believed to have come to the Americas via Beringia (the Bering Strait) 71

Early Migrations – Aegean Sea 72

Overseas Chinese Migration 73

Early Pacific Migrations 74

Barbarian invasions of Rome 75

Gateway for a Major Migration 76

Slave Trade

European Migration -19 th Century

Europe after 1945 • From less to more prosperous coutnries • “Guest workers” – Often men • Worker’s remittances 79

1950 1990 Change in African-American Population 1950 -1990 80

Different Scales of Migration • • Local – Urban to Suburban State – Rural to Urban/Suburban Regional – Rust Belt to Sun Belt International – Country to Country – Legal immigration – Illegal immigration • WHATEVER THE SCALE, SOME TYPE OF PUSH AND/OR PULL FACTORS WERE INVOLVED IN THE DECISION. 81

Reasons Americans Migrate • Changes in life course – marriage, etc. • Change in career cycle – leaving college, job transfer • Forced migrations – urban development, construction projects, etc. such as airport expansion • Neighborhood changes from which some choose to flee • Changes associated with individual personality • Historically part of our culture 82

Barriers to Migration • • Physical – terrain, deserts, oceans Economic – cost increases with distance Lack of knowledge of opportunities Roots – ties to individuals and institutions in the original activity space • Regulations in the receiving country (may not be too effective) and military resistance • Psychological – perceptions of distance and difficulty • Government regulations against emigration (former 83 Soviet “Bloc”)

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Government Policy? • In the light of September 11, 2001, there will be much debate about immigration policy. Most of us are glad the door was open to our ancestors; however, . . . . 86

Patterns of Migration • Migration field – An area that sends or receives major migration flows – Channelized pattern of flow – persistent patterns – Influence of past patterns of flow – Job opportunities & Economic influences – Ethnic affinity – Return migration –shortly after migrating decide to return (in free conditions, 25%) • #1 false expectations & #2 adjustment problems – Hierarchical migration • People moving up the levels of urban hierarchy from small places to large ones 87

Notable Migrations • • • Ancestors of Amerindians Phoenicians & Greeks around the Mediterranean Norsemen (Normans) Europeans to the “New World” and Australia Russians eastward into Siberia European Americans westward in USA Afro-Americans from south to north & urban centers Bantu migration to south and east in Africa Chinese to southeast Asia & islands Afrikaners to the high Veldt U. S. “Rustbelt” to the “Sunbelt” Mexicans to the U. S. southwest (illegals) 88

Migration Today • 2002 = 175 million living outside country of birth • Characteristics – Many poor, uneducated, unskilled – Enterprising, working age looking for opportunity – Many also highly educated and skilled • Refugees – 1951 Geneva convention – Asylum 89

International Migration • Increased apprehension in receiving countries – “Compassion fatigue” – Immigrants are scapegoats when unemployment rises • Emigration – Importance of remittances • Mexico = 3 rd largest source of foreign exchange 90

International Migration • Europe as a destination – – 16 million immigrants 7 -10 percent of host country population Problems = religion, education Contributions = entrepreneurs • Migration of Asians – 4 -5 million work abroad – Remittances important – Loss to home communities 91

Migration to the US and Canada • US – – Largest migration flow to US 10% US population foreign born Immigration quotas restrict immigration Implications • Hispanics as proportion of US population • Canada – 18. 4 percent population foreign born – 94 percent live in metro areas 92

Source of immigrants to the USA Foreign-born population in the USA by region of birth

New Controversies • Additional costs for public services? • Importing poverty? • Local costs of immigration – California • “Melting pot” or “cultural mosaic”? 94

Global Warming & Migration • Climate change has spurred past migrations – Oakies of U. S. dust bowl era – Huns in 5 th century CE – Ice ages • The major effect of global warming is expected to be climate change; however, no one can accurately predict what changes will occur where and to what extent? • Might this trigger new migration patterns? 95

The Demographic Equation • Demographic equation summarizes the contribution made to regional population change over time by the combination of natural change and net migration. – Population Relocation – immigration/emigration – two sides of a movement – Immigration Impacts on the demographic equation – increases as the population size of the areal unit studied decreases – TP = Natural Increase + Immigration - emigration 96

End of Chapter 5 97