Dr Mahmoud El Sheikh Ali World GOOS REGIONS

Dr Mahmoud El Sheikh Ali

World GOOS REGIONS Euro GOOS Black Sea NEARGOOS Med. GOOSSEA AFRIC GOOS A PI-GOOS IO WA GOOS US GOOS IOCARIB GOOS G R A S P Euro GOOS AF

Med. GOOS Mediterranean Global Ocean Observing System A regional initiative for operational oceanography What is Med. GOOS ? Brief history of Med. GOOS The first Med. GOOS project RTD Projects Related to Med. GOOS The strength of a regional partnership The expected long-term results Benefits of Med. GOOS

Med. GOOS Mediterranean Global Ocean Observing System History Informal association founded in 1999 under the auspices of the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) to provide a concerted approach to the development of an operational ocean observing and forecasting system at a regional and coastal scale to the benefit of a wide group of users in the region. Founded in 1999 and the joined membership already covers most of the riparian countries with a total of 19 members from 16 countries. Med. GOOS members play a leading role as a competent entity for the promotion of GOOS in their country. Each member acts as a national focal point, establishing links with the scientific community and the public authorities, developing awareness activities to enable the implementation of Med. GOOS and the future projection into long term commitments. Created the first project MAMA (Mediterranean network to Assess and upgrade Monitoring and forecasting Activity in the region.

Med. GOOS Benefit Capability to make informed decisions based on the knowledge of the causes and consequences of changes Effective and sustainable management of the marine environment in favour of fisheries, safe and efficient transportation, coastal recreation and other marine-related industries that contribute a large part of the total GNP for the bordering countries; Support of economies and for improving standards of living on the basis of enhanced marine services; Mitigation of marine hazards, with improved search and rescue operations, and in ensuring public health; Detection and forecasting of the oceanic components of climate variability due to human activity; Quest to preserve and restore healthy marine ecosystems. More specific benefits apply to the Mediterranean fisheries.

MAMA is the first Med. GOOS project MAMA Objectives: Build the basin-wide network for ocean monitoring and forecasting linking all the Mediterranean countries Identify the gaps in the monitoring systems in the region and in the capability to measure, model and forecast the ecosystem Integrate the knowledge base derived by relevant national and international RTD projects and programmes Build capacities in ocean monitoring and forecasting Design the initial observing and forecasting system, on the basis of a coordinated upgrading of capabilities in all Mediterranean countries Raise awareness on the benefits of Med. GOOS at local, regional and global scales; for operational oceanography at the service of sustainable development.

Principal Novelties Broadening the existing network by the experience of Euro. GOOS and Med. GOOS n. Setting up the logistics for the future ocean and coastal monitoring, modeling and forecasting operational system n. Establishing the first network of all Mediterranean countries n. Integrating the knowledge base derived by national and EU RTD projects n. Providing the framework for full geographical coverage of observation in the basin n. Producing a web-based demonstration application of the benefits of ocean observations and forecasting, coastal erosion protection n

MAMA Mediterranean network to Assess and upgrade the Monitoring and forecasting Activity in the region Ø Ø Ø Ø WP 1 WP 2 WP 3 WP 4 WP 5 WP 6 WP 7 WP 8 MAMA NOW MAMA OBSERVING SYSTEM MAMA CAPACITY BUILDING MAMA MODEL MAMA-NET MAMA WWW MAMA AWARENESS MAMA DISSEMINATION & PRODUCTS

MAMA WPs WP 1 MAMA NOW – Inventorying and assessment of current national operational oceanographic activities, infrastructures and resources in the Mediterranaen. WP 2 MAMA OBSERVING SYSTEM – Design of the real-time coastal data acquisition systems, fully integrated to the basin scale observing system. WP 3 MAMA CAPACITY BUILDING - Enhance in each country the basic technical and scientific expertise required to participate in Med. GOOS. WP 4 WP 5 WP 6 WP 7 WP 8 MAMA MODEL – Transfer of know-how and modelling experiences to partners by dedicated model implementations in new shelf areas. MAMA-NET – Design and test elements for inter-agency networking and for the exchange of data and information. Provide guidelines for a regional marine information system. MAMA WWW - Establish the MAMA WWW as a reference point and showcase for operational oceanography in the Mediterranean. MAMA AWARENESS – Undertake an awareness campaign on Med. GOOS addressing governmental agencies and authorities, policy-makers, the marine scientific community, marine industries, the services sector, and the public at large. MAMA DISSEMINATION & PRODUCTS – Promote the use and potential of addedvalue applications of routine data for the management of marine resources.

Expected Long Term Results n n n Strengthen the co-operation of all the Med countries for the interest of development Upgrade the technical and scientific skills, and quantity of human resources Enhance the basin wide monitoring and forecasting capabilities for coastal and shelf area management, based on the successful experience of the EU projects as MFSPP Establish the platform for the Med operational interagency exchange, merging data and information, to produce added value oceanographic information, and the delivery of user-oriented products in an operational and interacted mode Maximize the use of products and exploit opportunities deriving from operational ocean forecasting, by marine and environment authorities, policy makers, and stakeholders in general

MAMA Benefits n n n n n Gain knowledge and understand ocean’s system. Improve navigaton system to exploit oceans. Observe the sea from space. Improve the global progress in Operational Oceanography’, “O O” by long-term routine systematic measurements. Use the technology for rapid information, interpretation and dissemination. Providing continuous forecasting status to the sea. Keep recorded DB for the status of the sea. Provide warnings system. eg. coastal floods, storm impacts, earthquake. Watching ocean climate variability, etc.

MAMA Priorities n n n n Network Institution in all Med countries Define the present capabilities Raise awareness Capacity building of technical and scientific capabilities Pilot exercise to network existing monitoring systems Design of the initial observing system Design the initial forecasting system downscaled to the coastyal area Disseminate products and results

MAMA in Palestine Discussion Combined map of depth and sea bed

Ocean ecosystem dynamics strongly coupled with Ocean dynamics Factors limiting predictability: Data Predictability of the atmospheric forcing (coastal areas). Predictability of external inputs (River runoff and nutrient load) Model Open boundary condition (Limited area nested models) Definition of initial conditions forecast simulations Initial adjustment problem for nested models. To overcome (or reduce) such problems, the forecasting System must encompass both the open and the coastal Ocean scales……

The pelagic physical-biological interactions in the ocean 2 B 1 Nutrient limitation A Stratification light limitation 1 2 Mixing C New Regenerated production F Oceanic Ecosystems 5 Coastal Ecosystems 3 D E Microbial food web 3 Herbivorous food web 5 4 Large Flagellates phytoplankton and bacteria 4 Legendre and Rassoulzadegan, 1995

The components of an interdisciplinary forecasting system

Buoy stations Adricosm “in situ” Observing System Currently Running

Adricosm remote Observing System Sea. Wifs AVHRR TOPEX ERS-2

The coupled physica-ecological modelling system Need - Water column and sediment prognostic equations for Physical state variables Macro-scale: T, S, ρ, p, u, v, w (equation of motion equation of state equations for scalar properties conservation) Sub-grid scale: Kv, KH, Iz (turbulence closure equations radiative transfer equations) Air-sea fluxes: τw, Q, (E-P) (bulk formulae) Water sediment interactions: τb, (bulk formulae)

The “Standard Organism” (Functional group approach) CO 2 Basal activity Stress respiration Uptake Food components (C: N: P)food Nutrient excretion Organism Nutr. Predation (C: N: P)organism Mortality Excretion Defaecation Detritus fractions Predators (C: N: P)food

Thus, the fundamental structure ofthe marine ecosystem Model Is: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Physical environment description (macro and micro-scales) Chemical currencies Functional groups (Different species in a single group) Closure hypothesis(or individual based modelling) for Higher trophic levels. All components interacting in a deterministic way with bulk parameterizations

THE GENERAL STRUCTURE OF THE MODELS FORCING AND COUPLING Nutrient input Particulate Inorganic Matter Qs Qb+Qe+Qh w (E-P-R) PAR KH (x, y, z, t) T (x, y, z, t) Ecology Pelagic Model S (x, y, z, t) A (x, y, z, t) Circulation Model u, v, w (x, y, z, t) Cp (x, y, z, t) Sedimentary and Water-Sediment diffusive processes Ecology Benthic Model Numerical Driver (Time Integration) Transport Model

Implementation towards operational use of ecological models MFS strategy: • Implementation of 1 D models in data rich areas to validate/calibrate models and check the physical/ biological coupling (MFSPP task accomplished) • Extend the implementation to 3 D with climatological forcing and nesting approach (MFSTEP task underway) • Explore the use of data assimilation schemes for biogechemical state variables (MFSTEP task underway)

1 D implementations: Validation under high frequency forcing Bacterial biomass: 48 h simulation with 6 hr atmospheric forcing Observations Model

1 DImplementation Comparison with observed Bacterial Carbon Production (BCP) improving biological rates processes O Data + stdev Standard model Improved model BCP = -b*f(T)*B + (1 -BGE)*U(substrate) BGE = 0. 3 (standard) BGE = c – a*T (Rivkin and Legendre, 2001)

3 D implementations: Nested approach based on MFSPP Circulation modelling OGCM Coupled Model Regional Coupled Models The MFSTEP Coupled Models Domain

Preliminary results forthe Adriatic Chlorophyll-a

Thank You and See you in Next Workshop