2013 Florida Legislative Overview UNITED WAY OF MIAMIDADE

2013 Florida Legislative Overview UNITED WAY OF MIAMI-DADE 2013 FLORIDA LEGISLATIVE PREVIEW February 27, 2013 Presented by Ted Granger, President United Way of Florida, Inc. 1

Money - Post War U. S. Recessions Real GDP Industrial Production Payroll Employment 23 -4. 00% -17. 88% -5. 47% 2001 to 11 -2001 8 -0. 40% -5. 80% -2. 10% 1990 to 3 -1991 8 -1. 30% -4. 30% -1. 50% 16 -2. 70% -10. 30% -3. 20% 1980 to 7 -1980 6 -2. 20% -6. 90% -1. 30% 1973 to 3 -1975 16 -3. 10% -12. 80% -2. 80% 1969 to 11 -1970 11 0. 00% -7. 50% -1. 40% 1960 to 2 -1961 10 -1. 60% -7. 80% -2. 30% 1957 to 4 -1958 8 -3. 80% -12. 70% -4. 00% 1953 to 5 -1954 10 -2. 40% -9. 10% -3. 30% 1948 to 10 -1949 11 -1. 80% -7. 70% -4. 40% Avg. for prev. recessions 10 -1. 90% -8. 50% -2. 60% Peak to Trough % 2007 to 9 -2009 1981 to 11 -1982 Length of Recession in Months 2 2

Percent Job Losses in Post WWII Recessions, August Source: Calculated RISK Finance & Economics, September 2012 3 3

Florida Economy Population 4 4

Florida Economy - Population Source: Bureau of Economic & Business Research, UF, May 11, 2012 5 5

Florida Economy - Population FLORIDA POPULATION INCREASE BY PERCENTAGE 78, 7% 80, 0% 70, 0% 60, 0% 43, 5% 50, 0% 37, 2% 40, 0% 32, 7% 23, 5% 30, 0% 17, 6% 20, 0% 13, 4% 12, 0% 9, 2% 10, 0% 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: Bureau of Economic & Business Research, UF, June 2011 2030 6 2040 6

Florida Economy - Population Avg. Ann. Pop. Grwth 318, 000 7 7

Florida Economy – Population Growth by Age Group Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012 8 8

Florida Economy Construction Home Sales Foreclosures 9 9

Florida’s Long Recovery Construction n -384, 000 q jobs from 2007 +4, 200 (1. 3%) jobs Sept/Sept n 2007 levels won’t return until 2031 Source: University of Central Florida, August 2012; Associated General Contractors, November, 2012 10 10

Home Sales Continue Improving Existing Single-Family Homes – 11/2011 -2012 q q +24. 4% n US - +14. 5% n 8 months consecutive increase +14. 1% - Median Sales Prices n q $154, 000 +10. 6% - Average Sales Price n $223, 301 Condo Sales q q +18. 3% +20. 2% - Median Sales Prices Source: Florida Realtors, December 2012; January 2013 11 11

Home Sales Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012 12 12

Florida Foreclosures Florida Foreclosure Rate q q #1 in US 2012 n 1 Filing for every 312 Housing Units q US Rate = 1/706 #1 – Foreclosure filings in January n q July –December 2012 n n q 29, 800 homes entered foreclosure 105 K - foreclosures cleared from the court 98 K – foreclosures started December 31 – 371 K pending foreclosures Source: Realty. Trac & Office of the State Courts Administrator, February 2013 13

Florida Foreclosures Average Foreclosure Timeframe in Florida q q 2007 - 169 days 2012 - 861 days (about 2. 5 years) n 3 rd longest in nation But…Foreclosure Starts +24% Dec. /Dec Result on FL Budget Flat/slight growth in property tax income. Source: Legislative Budget Commission, Long Range Financial Outlook, Fall 2012 14 14

Florida Foreclosures Ahead 38% of all residential loans in Florida are for homes that are underwater. Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012 15 15

August 2012 Foreclosure Rate Heat Map Source: Realty. Trac LLC, August 2012 16 16

Florida Economy Tourism 17 17

Tourism Rocks! Total Tourism Spending (Tourism/Recreation Taxable Sales) 2002 -2011: 2002 - $51. 1 billion 2003 - $51. 5 billion* 2004 - $57. 1 billion 2005 - $62. 0 billion 2006 - $65. 0 billion 2007 - $65. 5 billion 2008 - $65. 2 billion 2009 - $60. 9 billion 2010 - $62. 7 billion 2011 - $67. 2 billion Source: Visit Florida, December 2012 18 18

Tourism Rocks! Total State Sales Tax Revenues from Tourism 2002 -2011: 2002 - $3. 0 billion 2003 - $3. 1 billion 2004 - $3. 4 billion 2005 - $3. 7 billion 2006 - $3. 9 billion 2007 - $3. 9 billion 2008 - $3. 9 billion 2009 - $3. 7 billion 2010 - $3. 8 billion 2011 - $4. 0 billion Source: Visit Florida, December 2012 19 19

Tourism Rocks! Number of Persons Directly Employed by Tourism Industry 2002 -2011: 2002 - 862, 900 2003 - 874, 700 2004 - 920, 700 2005 - 948, 700 2006 - 964, 700 2007 - 991, 300 2008 - 1, 007, 000 2009 - 973, 800 2010 - 974, 700 2011 - 1, 013, 100 Source: Visit Florida, December 2012 20 20

Tourism Rocks! Quarter ending June 30, 2012 over 2 nd quarter 2011 n +1. 3% overall n 2. 4 M Foreign Visitors: +10% n 18. 8 M domestic visitors: +0. 3% Tourism Jobs: +1. 1% (11, 300) to 1, 041, 900 Tourism-Related Taxable Sales: +8. 8% ($31. 5 B) Source: Visit Florida, August 2012 21 21

Florida Unemployment Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012 22 22

Florida Unemployment December 2012 Florida Unemployment q q q 8% - lowest rate in more than four years (11/08). 7. 8% - US Rate 749, 000 Floridians unemployed New jobs: q Leisure and hospital industry lead the way: +29, 900 jobs (3. 1% increase) Source: Department of Economic Opportunity, January 2013 23 23

National Jobs Lost & Recovered U. S. Recession Job Losses Regained Jobs 21% 58% 60% 22% 19% 20% Low-Wage ($7. 69 - $13. 83 / $15, 995 - $28, 766) Mid-Wage ($13. 84 - $21. 13 / $28, 787 - $43, 950) High-Wage ($21. 14 - $54. 54 / $43, 971 - $113, 443) Source: National Employment Law Project, The Low-Wage Recovery and Growing Inequality, August 2012. 24 24

Florida Budget 25 25

Florida Budget Fiscal Cliff Deal: Good & Bad for Florida Bad: n 2010 SS payroll tax deduction expires - $6. 5 B q q q Temporarily reduced in 2010 (6. 2% to 4. 2%) 7. 1 million Florida households seeing a tax increase Median Florida household ($45, 000) – +$900 taxes in 2013. Source: Institute Economic Competitiveness at the Univ. of Central Florida, January 2013 26 26

Florida Budget Fiscal Cliff Deal: Good & Bad for Florida Good: n Extended federal emergency UC program, due to expire Jan. 1, for another year. q $1. 4 billion for Florida economy q Long Term Unemployment n US – 40% n FL – 50. 6% Source: Institute Economic Competitiveness at the Univ. of Central Florida, January 2013 27 27

Florida Budget The Sequester $85 billion in spending cuts (2. 4% of $3. 6 trillion in federal spending) Source: The White House, February 2013. 28 28

Florida Budget The Sequester: Florida Impacts q -31, 000 civilian DOD jobs furloughed (-$183. 2 m) q -7, 450 – children vaccinated (-$509, 000) q -2, 700 Head Start Children q -1, 600 – subsidized child care children q -$3. 8 million – meals for seniors q -$5 million – substance abuse grants q -$54. 5 million – primary & secondary education Source: The White House, February 2013. 29 29

Florida Budget Florida: Positive Debt Picture n -$2 B since 2010 q n State Borrowing q q n $28. 2 B - $26. 2 B AAA Bond Rating 2012 - $416 M 2002 -2010 - $2 B annually (avg. ) Programs dependant on bonding: q q q School construction &maintenance (57% of debt load) Transportation (27%) Florida Forever (10%) Source: Office of the Chief Financial Officer, December 2012 30 30

General Revenue Outlook ($ millions) FY 2011 -12 FY 2012 -13 Total Funds Available 25, 216. 00 26, 070. 10 Total Estimated Expenditures 27, 726. 70 31, 119. 30 Ending Balance -2, 510. 70 -5, 049. 20 Source: Legislative Budget Commission, September 2011 31 31

General Revenue Outlook ($ millions) FY 201314* FY 201415 FY 201516 Total Funds Available** 27, 853. 7 28, 306. 5 29, 541. 3 Total Estimated Expenditures 27, 416. 9 27, 253. 0 27, 947. 3 Ending Balance 436. 8 53. 5 594. 0 • Updated December, 2012 • All GR – recurring, nonrecurring, roll-over Source: Legislative Budget Commission, Fall 2012 Report 32 32

No Budget Shortfall? ? ? 2013 -2014 Budget: “Flat” Flat is good! Budget surplus: first in 5 years 33 33

Florida GR History Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012 34 34

Florida GR Budget 2012 -2013 Source: The Florida Legislature 35 35

Florida GR Budget 2012 -2013 Program Area (Section of General Appropriations Act) Education Dollars Percent 12, 689. 5 51. 2% 7, 673. 1 31. 0% 331. 4 1. 3% 3, 136. 0 12. 7% Natural Resources/ Environment/ Growth Mgmt. / Transportation 225. 6 0. 9% General Government 710. 8 2. 9% 24, 766. 5 100. 0% Human Services Judicial Branch Criminal Justice and Corrections Total Source: The Florida Legislature 36 36

Florida Budget 2012 -2013 Source: The Florida Legislature 37 37

Florida Budget 2012 -2013 Program Area (Section of General Appropriations Act) Dollars Percent Education 20, 286. 4 29. 0% Human Services 29, 912. 8 42. 7% 446. 2 0. 6% 4, 191. 2 6. 0% 11, 329. 8 16. 2% 3, 870. 2 5. 5% 70, 036. 7 100% Judicial Branch Criminal Justice and Corrections Natural Resources/ Environment/ Growth Mgmt. / Transportation General Government Total Source: The Florida Legislature 38 38

Florida GR Revenue Sources Source: FL Revenue Estimating Conf. ; 2012 Florida Tax Handbook 39 39

2013 Legislative Session Overview Thanks! 40 40