Title Adapting to climate change measuring progress Adaptation

Title Adapting to climate change: measuring progress Adaptation Sub-Committee Progress Report 2011 Lord Krebs Kt FRS 14 July 2011

Extreme weather events are in the headlines 2

Adaptation Sub-Committee Lord John Krebs Chairman Dr Andrew Dlugolecki Established by Climate Change Act 2008 to: • advise on preparedness of UK for climate change • monitor progress in adaptation Sir Graham Wynne Dr Sam Fankhauser Prof Martin Parry Prof Jim Hall Prof Tim Palmer Prof Anne Johnson 3

ASC’s second progress report • Measuring progress in adaptation (indicators) • Focus on three priority areas • Advise on Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) www. theccc. org. uk/reports 4

ASC ladder: indicators of preparedness Vulnerability to current climate and future climate Uptake of low-regret actions Accounting for climate change in long-term decisions 5

Indicators: development in flood risk areas Type Indicator Impact Insurance claims for weather related causes Trend Vulnerability New dwellings built in areas of high flood risk Action Uptake of resilience measures in new build Builds on original work by AEA Technology (2011) for ASC 6

Focus of the second report ASC’s adaptation priorities Land use planning Providing national infrastructure Managing natural resources Designing and renovating buildings Assessed in this report Land use planning Managing water resources Design and renovation of residential buildings Emergency planning 7

Land use planning 8

Change 2001 – 2011 (%) Development in flood risk areas continues River/coastal flood risk areas Surface water flood risk areas All areas Source: Arup (2011) for ASC 9

Hard surfacing is increasing at expense of urban greenspace % Change in 2001 – 2011 Natural area Mixed use Man-made surfaces Source: Arup (2011) for ASC 10

Use of flood protection measures in new buildings Source: Arup (2011) for ASC 11

Additional households protected Increased protection from flood defences Source: Environment Agency (2011) 12

% Change in developed area But residual flood risk still increasing in sampled locations Source: Arup (2011) for ASC Environment Agency Flood risk category 13

Managing water resources 14

Security of supply index Security of water supply has improved, but with continued environmental cost Source: From data reported to Ofwat (‘June returns’). 15

Without adaptation, there could be deficits in some parts of country >30% deficit 20 – 30% deficit > 30% surplus 20 – 30% surplus 10 – 20% deficit 10 – 20% surplus 0 – 10% deficit Zones in deficit or surplus (2035) 0 – 10% surplus Source: ASC calculations based on revised Water Resource Management Plans 2009. 16

Water companies plan a mix of supply and demand measures to close the gap Thames Water preferred plan emand Current projected d Millions of litres Reduced leakage + demand Source: ASC presentation of Thames Water data extracted from WRMP 17

There is scope to increase action on demand Our economic analysis suggests that it is cost-effective to reduce demand to 115 litres person per day in the South East 18

Uncertainty is not fully factored in to water resource planning 2020 s medium low medium Projected deficits 2050 s high 2080 s high Deficits Groundwater Adaptation pathways Pathway 1 Pathway 2 Pathway 33 Source: Atkins (2011) for the ASC and Thames Water. 19

Designing and renovating buildings 20

Low-regret opportunities for adaptation – water efficiency measures Cost-benefit ratio New build Retrofit End-of-life upgrade Rain water system Grey water system Low-water washing machine Click-lock taps New build package at zero additional cost: 115 l/person/day 1 Ml/year End-of-life upgrade at zero additional cost: Low-flow shower, taps, WC Dual-flush WC 85 l/person/ day standard Source: Davis Langdon (AECOM) (2011) for the ASC

Summary of headline messages UK is coping with current climate variability Some sectors are near the limits and vulnerability is likely to increase Low-regret actions could be taken now Long-term decisions not fully incorporating climate adaptation 22

Opportunities for National Adaptation Programme ASC Priority Key Barriers Opportunities Land use planning • Not accounting for long – term costs • Insufficient guidance • Localism Bill • National Planning Policy Framework Managing water resources • Planning not factoring in • Water White Paper full range of climate • Price Review 2014 uncertainties • Weak signals to encourage sustainable abstraction Design and renovation of residential buildings • Lack of information, available capital or incentives • Future reviews of Building Regulations • Green Deal 22

Adaptation Sub-Committee http: //www. theccc. org. uk 24

Development in flood risk areas continues East Riding Kingstonupon-Hull Increase in area of buildings in area of flood risk (2001 – 2011) Decrease in area of buildings in area of flood risk (2001 – 2011) Source: Arup (2011) for ASC 25