Climate Change and Climate Change Adaptation Possible Interventions
Climate Change and Climate Change Adaptation Possible Interventions? North East Domestic Energy Forum Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Co-ordinator Adrian. hilton@northeastassembly 0191 4978451
Increasing scientific concern: “There is no bigger problem than climate change. The threat is quite simple, it’s a threat to our civilization”. Professor Sir David King: the Government's Chief Scientific Adviser and Head of the Office of Science and Technology
Increasing urgency: “There is still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change if strong collective action starts now” Sir Nicholas Stern, Head of the Government Economics Service and Adviser to the Government on the economics of climate change and development
IPCC: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level (see Figure SPM-3). {3. 2, 4. 2, 5. 5}”
3 Key Components One Two Three Adaptation
What is Climate Change Adaptation? Adaptation Ømeasures to moderate and cope with climate change impacts Ønot a one-off activity, but a continuous and incremental set of activities. q. Physical actions e. g: üraising the height of sea defences üIncreasing ventilation / cooling in buildings q. Building ‘Adaptive Capacity’ e. g: üRaising awareness of impacts üIntegrating CC into continuity planning & risk mgt üTools / context etc for decision makers
Why do we need Adaptation? Adaptation ØClimate change is already happening ØStopping GHGs today will not prevent it ØCC over next 30 -50 yrs due to historic emissions
Unavoidable Climate Change is long lasting.
‘Resilience’ component: Adaptation ØImpacts assessed ØAdaptive actions identified & prioritised ØActions implemented ü‘vulnerability threshold’ raised üImproved business continuity üSignificant risk aversion üImproved public perception üReduced future costs / liabilities üImproved ‘Adaptive Capacity’
Climate sensitivity, vulnerability and adaptation New critical threshold New coping range Climate variable Vulnerability Critical threshold Coping range Past Present Lag Decision to adapt Future Implementation of adaptation Planning time horizon Slide courtesy of UKCIP Time
We need to: Adaptation ØBuild ‘adaptive capacity’ ØIdentify priorities for adaptation ØIdentify actions that will improve the resilience of: üDevelopment, üBusiness, üServices, üInfrastructure, üCommunities - esp. Existing Housing stock üThe Economy, üthe ‘Natural’ environment
Climate Change and the UK • The UK climate will become warmer. • The temperature of coastal waters will also increase, although not as rapidly as over land. • High summer temperatures will become more frequent, whilst very cold winters will become increasingly rare.
Climate Change and the UK • Winters will become wetter and summers may become drier throughout the UK • Snowfall amounts will decrease throughout the UK. • Heavy winter precipitation will become more frequent
Climate Change and the UK • Relative sea level will continue to rise around most of the UK's shoreline. • Extreme sea levels will be experienced more frequently • Overall there will be a significant change in weather patterns
Impacts
Impacts • Wear Climate Change Adaptation Study (Feb 2007) • NE Climate Change Adaptation Study (Jan / Feb 2008) • Climate Change Thresholds Study (proposed)
Existing Housing Stock Adaptation ØNot designed with future climate in mind ØDue to demand for property, low demolition rates ØAt current replacement rates existing stock will make up 60 – 80% of housing stock in 2050 ØThese properties will be vulnerable to impacts
Overheating Adaptation There are some general design and thermal principles which govern a house’s vulnerability to overheating: ØThe outdoor temperature is the starting point for overheating Øexcessive insolation – solar windows ØInadequate ventilation ØInadequate insulation ØAdaptation – increase thermal mass Øimproved ventilation / insulation ØModification of fenestration ØShading
Flooding Adaptation ØWater penetrates through construction of a wall but also through cracks, defects, service penetrations and other openings - maintenance and repair ØMove services meters to at least one metre above floor level ØMove electrics to at least one metre above floor level with cables dropping from first floor level ØPut one-way valves into drainage pipes. This prevents contaminated floodwater entering houses ØMount boilers onto the wall above the level that floodwater is likely to reach ØInstall drainage on driveways ØReplace mineral insulation within internal partition walls with closed cell insulation
Flooding Adaptation ØReplace gypsum plaster with a more water resistant material, such as lime plaster or cement render on ØFix plasterboards horizontally on timber framed walls rather than vertically ØFit kitchen units with extendable plastic or stainless steel feet or support on raised brick or stonework. ØReplace chipboard kitchen/bathroom units with plastic or similar units. ØLook at barrier devices for doors / covers for airbricks
Storm events Adaptation ØWhilst an increase in the frequency of storm events, particularly wind speeds, is difficult to model there is little doubt that the frequency of such events is likely to increase: ØRoof - the single greatest cause of destruction due to high winds is failure to tie the roof securely to its supporting walls or posts. ØAvoid openings that can't be closed off during storm events. High winds penetrate the building and create outward pressures on walls and roof. ØEnsure good maintenance of fabric. ØExamine tile pegging
STERN: Adaptation ØAdaptation policy is crucial for dealing with the unavoidable impacts of climate change, but it has been under-emphasised in many countries. ØThere is still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change if strong collective action starts now.
Emerging Legal Imperative: • • Climate Change is now regarded as ‘Reasonably Forseable” Professionals will need to explicitly address climate issues The Freedom of Information Act Both individuals and the organisations they represent may be liable
We’ve got the data – we need to use it (wisely!)
A Vision for the Region…. . ØA Region which has addressed mitigation and reaped the benefits ØA Region that is resilient and well adapted to Climate Change ØA Region that has exploited the opportunities ØA Region that has built ‘Adaptive Capacity’ ØTHE Region that others turn to in regard to Climate Change Working together we can achieve this
Over to you…. . …. What adaptation measures a practicable to integrate into existing interventions?
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