PREDICTING BEHAVIOUR An overview Predicting Behaviour n Marks

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PREDICTING BEHAVIOUR An overview

PREDICTING BEHAVIOUR An overview

Predicting Behaviour n Marks et al (2000) defines substance misuse as a complex practice

Predicting Behaviour n Marks et al (2000) defines substance misuse as a complex practice that involves a mixture of biological, social and psychological processes.

Predicting Behaviour n “ influences …. . which the individual determines by his own

Predicting Behaviour n “ influences …. . which the individual determines by his own behaviour (smoking, eating, exercise and the like”) (Mc. Keown cited in Ogden 2000 p. 14).

Predicting Behaviour n n n Biological – physiological dependence Social – drugs seen as

Predicting Behaviour n n n Biological – physiological dependence Social – drugs seen as confidence building, sociable Psychological - determined by the individual’s beliefs about and attitudes towards health,

Models of Behaviour n n The health belief model The protection motivation theory The

Models of Behaviour n n The health belief model The protection motivation theory The theory of reasoned action/planned behaviour The transtheoretical model/stages of change

The health belief model n n This was originally developed to explain and predict

The health belief model n n This was originally developed to explain and predict preventative health behaviour and the response to treatment in acute and chronically ill patients. It focused originally on four themes based on an individual’s approach to taking a health action –

The health belief model n n n Perception of susceptibility to disease Perceived severity

The health belief model n n n Perception of susceptibility to disease Perceived severity of that disease Potential benefits of changing health behaviour. Barriers to changing health behaviour. General health motivation demographic variables, psychosocial variables and structural variables

Health Belief Model

Health Belief Model

Jon is likely to continue smoking because n n He agrees with the tobacco

Jon is likely to continue smoking because n n He agrees with the tobacco industry--smoking doesn’t cause lung cancer (susceptibility). He believes that dying from lung cancer is not any worse than any other way of dying (severity). Jon feels that smoking relaxes him (cost/benefits). His friends offer him cigarettes (barrier to quitting)

Jane is not likely to continue smoking because… n n She thinks that she

Jane is not likely to continue smoking because… n n She thinks that she might get lung cancer if she continues to smoke (susceptibility). She believes that dying from lung cancer is terrible (severity). Jane does not find smoking to be very pleasurable (cost/benefits). Her friends are supportive of her quitting (absence of barrier)

The protection motivation theory Originally it focused on four aspects n Susceptibility to disease

The protection motivation theory Originally it focused on four aspects n Susceptibility to disease n Perceived severity of that disease (threat appraisal) n Response effectiveness n Self-efficacy. (coping appraisal) n Fear.

Theories of Reasoned Action / Planned Behaviour

Theories of Reasoned Action / Planned Behaviour

Theories of Reasoned Action / Planned Behaviour n n Intentions Attitudes n n n

Theories of Reasoned Action / Planned Behaviour n n Intentions Attitudes n n n Subjective norms n n n Beliefs (outcome expectancies) Values Beliefs (about what others think you should do) Motivation to comply Perceived behavioural control

Theory of Planned Behaviour n Past Behaviour n n Always the best predictor of

Theory of Planned Behaviour n Past Behaviour n n Always the best predictor of future behavior Behavioural Control Perceived Behavioural Control/Locus of Control/Self-Efficacy n Intention -> Behaviour n Link is problematic when behaviour is not fully under the individual’s control.

Someone likely to drink and drive n n n ATTITUDE: Bob feels more at

Someone likely to drink and drive n n n ATTITUDE: Bob feels more at ease with others when he drinks (beliefs about the consequences and values) SUBJECTIVE NORM: Bob feels that his colleagues encourage him to drink after work (belief) and he wants them to like him (motivation to comply) INTENTION: Bob intends (expects) to drink with his colleagues after work and then drive home 1 or more times in the next 30 days (intentions).

Transtheoretical Model n n n Precontemplation stage Contemplation stage Preparation Action Maintenance

Transtheoretical Model n n n Precontemplation stage Contemplation stage Preparation Action Maintenance

Transtheoretical or stages of change model

Transtheoretical or stages of change model

Precontemplation n n No intention to change behaviour in the foreseeable future (next 6

Precontemplation n n No intention to change behaviour in the foreseeable future (next 6 months). Includes people who are unaware of the problem plus those who know about the problem but are not considering change.

Contemplation n n People are aware that a problem exists and are seriously thinking

Contemplation n n People are aware that a problem exists and are seriously thinking about overcoming it but have not yet made a firm commitment to take action. Intending to change within 6 months; open to feedback and information about how to change. However, ambivalent about the costs and benefits of their behaviour.

Preparation n n Individual is intending to take action in the next month and

Preparation n n Individual is intending to take action in the next month and has unsuccessfully taken action in the past year (combines intention and behaviour criteria). Actively planning change and already taking some steps toward action such as reducing frequency of problem behavior.

Action n n Stage in which individuals modify their behaviour, experiences, or environment in

Action n n Stage in which individuals modify their behaviour, experiences, or environment in order to overcome their problems. Involves overt behavioural changes and requires commitment of time and energy. e. g. , cessation of smoking has occurred and last cigarette was less than 6 months ago.

Maintenance n n n People work to prevent relapse and consolidate the gains attained

Maintenance n n n People work to prevent relapse and consolidate the gains attained during action. Sustaining change and resisting temptation to relapse. Stage extends from 6 months and beyond the initial behavioural change.

Transtheoretical Model n Limitations n n n cognitive processes may be different for stopping

Transtheoretical Model n Limitations n n n cognitive processes may be different for stopping a behaviou r and starting a new one thinking about costs and benefits is not a good predictor of moving forward or not are the stages the right ones?

Models of Behaviour n n n predict an individual’s behaviour help explain people’s attitudes

Models of Behaviour n n n predict an individual’s behaviour help explain people’s attitudes to health and to the prevention of ill health extent to which they can exercise control and make changes.