Crop Market Outlook Fall Field Day Nashua Iowa

Crop Market Outlook Fall Field Day Nashua, Iowa Sept. 3, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 88. 2 91. 9 97. 2 95. 4 91. 6 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 152. 8 147. 2 123. 4 158. 8 167. 4 Production (mil. bu. ) 12, 447 12, 360 10, 780 13, 925 14, 032 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 708 1, 128 989 821 1, 181 Imports (mil. bu. ) 28 29 162 35 30 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 14, 182 13, 517 11, 932 14, 781 15, 243 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 4, 795 4, 557 4, 329 5, 175 5, 250 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 5, 019 5, 000 4, 648 5, 120 5, 075 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 407 1, 428 1, 403 1, 385 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 834 1, 543 731 1, 920 1, 725 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 13, 055 12, 528 11, 111 13, 600 13, 435 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 128 989 821 1, 181 1, 808 5. 18 6. 22 6. 89 4. 45 3. 90 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77. 4 75. 0 77. 2 76. 5 84. 8 Yield (bu. /acre) 43. 5 41. 9 39. 8 43. 3 45. 4 Production (mil. bu. ) 3, 329 3, 094 3, 034 3, 289 3, 816 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 151 215 169 141 140 Imports (mil. bu. ) 14 16 36 80 15 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 3, 495 3, 325 3, 239 3, 509 3, 971 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 648 1, 703 1, 689 1, 725 1, 755 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 130 88 90 5 111 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 501 1, 365 1, 320 1, 640 1, 675 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 3, 280 3, 155 3, 099 3, 369 3, 541 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 215 169 141 140 430 11. 30 12. 50 14. 40 13. 00 10. 35 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Projected Corn Yields Top: 2014 Yield Bottom: Change from 2013 Units: Bu/acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Objective Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2014 Yield Bottom: Change from 2013 Units: Bu/acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Grind for Ethanol Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Corn Futures 3. 86 3. 51 Source: CME Group, 8/29/2014 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Soybean Futures 9. 99 10. 01 Source: CME Group, 8/29/2014 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2014/15 Crop Margins Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2015/16 Crop Margins Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

3 -Month Temperature Outlook Source: NOAA-CPC Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

3 -Month Precipitation Outlook Source: NOAA-CPC Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond ØSupply/demand concerns ØProjected record corn and soybean crops ØMarkets have adjusted downward to absorb projected supplies ØProjected negative margins for 2014 and 2015 crops ØEl Niño watch continues Corn Soybeans 2013/14 USDA 2014/15 USDA $4. 45 $13. 00 $3. 90 $10. 35 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2013/14 2014/15 Futures (8/29/14) $4. 46 $3. 51 $13. 03 $9. 99

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www. econ. iastate. edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics