2013 Crop Market Outlook Iowa Corn Crop Fair

2013 Crop Market Outlook Iowa Corn Crop Fair Paullina, Iowa Feb. 6, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 86. 0 86. 4 88. 2 91. 9 97. 2 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 153. 9 164. 7 152. 8 147. 2 123. 4 Production (mil. bu. ) 12, 092 13, 092 12, 447 12, 360 10, 780 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 624 1, 673 1, 708 1, 128 989 Imports (mil. bu. ) 14 8 28 29 100 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 13, 729 14, 774 14, 182 13, 516 11, 869 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 5, 182 5, 125 4, 795 4, 548 4, 450 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 3, 709 4, 591 5, 019 5, 011 4, 500 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 316 1, 370 1, 407 1, 426 1, 367 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 849 1, 980 1, 834 1, 543 950 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 12, 056 13, 066 13, 055 12, 527 11, 267 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 673 1, 708 1, 128 989 602 4. 06 3. 55 5. 18 6. 22 7. 40 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted (mil. acres) 75. 7 77. 5 77. 4 75. 0 77. 2 Yield (bu. /acre) 39. 7 44. 0 43. 5 41. 9 39. 6 Production (mil. bu. ) 2, 967 3, 359 3, 329 3, 094 3, 015 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 205 138 151 215 169 Imports (mil. bu. ) 13 15 14 16 20 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 3, 185 3, 512 3, 495 3, 325 3, 204 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 662 1, 752 1, 648 1, 703 1, 605 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 106 110 130 91 119 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 279 1, 499 1, 501 1, 362 1, 345 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 3, 047 3, 361 3, 280 3, 155 3, 070 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 138 151 215 169 135 9. 97 9. 59 11. 30 12. 50 14. 25 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Projected Corn Yields Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: Bushels/acre Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: Bushels/acre Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Grind for Ethanol Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Fuel Prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Blended Gasoline Consumption 7. 6 bil. gal. 7. 4 bil. gal. Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Corn Futures 6. 78 5. 57 5. 37 Source: CME Group, 2/5/2013 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Soybean Futures 14. 18 12. 82 12. 44 Source: CME Group, 2/5/2013 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Prices vs. Costs 2013 Breakeven Yield = 142. 5 bu/acre Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soy Prices vs. Costs 2013 Breakeven Yield = 42. 1 bu/acre Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: 1, 000 acres Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond ØSupply/demand concerns ØSoil moisture issues ØBiofuel and export strength ØWorldwide response to drought-induced pricing 2012/13 USDA Corn Soybeans $7. 40 $14. 25 ØRisk management ØCrop insurance ØPrice protection Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2012/13 Futures (2/5/13) $6. 78 $14. 18 2013/14 Futures (2/5/13) $5. 57 $12. 82

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www. econ. iastate. edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics