Crop Market Outlook Crop Advantage Series Ames Iowa

Crop Market Outlook Crop Advantage Series Ames, Iowa Jan. 11, 2017 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 95. 4 90. 6 88. 0 94. 5 90. 0 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 158. 1 171. 0 168. 4 175. 3 170. 8 Production (mil. bu. ) 13, 829 14, 216 13, 601 15, 226 14, 060 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 821 1, 232 1, 731 1, 738 2, 403 Imports (mil. bu. ) 36 32 67 50 50 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 14, 686 15, 479 15, 400 17, 013 16, 513 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 5, 040 5, 280 5, 130 5, 650 5, 500 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 5, 124 5, 200 5, 206 5, 300 5, 325 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 369 1, 401 1, 429 1, 435 1, 440 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 920 1, 867 1, 898 2, 225 1, 950 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 13, 454 13, 748 13, 662 14, 610 14, 215 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 232 1, 731 1, 738 2, 403 2, 298 4. 46 3. 70 3. 61 3. 35 3. 30 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB 2013 -16, USDA-OCE 2017 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted (mil. acres) 76. 8 83. 3 82. 7 83. 7 85. 5 Yield (bu. /acre) 44. 0 47. 5 48. 0 52. 5 47. 9 Production (mil. bu. ) 3, 358 3, 927 3, 926 4, 361 4, 050 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 141 92 191 197 480 Imports (mil. bu. ) 72 33 24 30 30 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 3, 570 4, 052 4, 140 4, 588 4, 560 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 734 1, 873 1, 886 1, 930 1, 935 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 107 146 121 127 130 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 638 1, 842 1, 936 2, 050 2, 100 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 3, 478 3, 862 3, 943 4, 108 4, 165 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 92 191 197 480 396 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) 13. 00 10. 10 8. 95 9. 45 9. 35 Source: USDA-WAOB 2013 -16, USDA-OCE 2017 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Yield Estimates Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soy Yield Estimates Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Drought Monitor Source: National Drought Mitigation Center Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

South American Weather Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Change in Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Change in Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Strength of the U. S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Grind for Ethanol Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Corn Futures 4. 01 3. 87 3. 52 Source: CME Group, 1/10/2017 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Soybean Futures 9. 76 9. 83 9. 54 Source: CME Group, 1/10/2017 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2016/17 Crop Margins @ Trend Yields Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2017/18 Crop Margins Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics