Crop Marketing Outlook 2014 Ag Outlook Riverside Iowa

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Crop Marketing Outlook 2014 Ag Outlook Riverside, Iowa Mar. 11, 2014 Chad Hart Associate

Crop Marketing Outlook 2014 Ag Outlook Riverside, Iowa Mar. 11, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 88. 2 91.

U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 88. 2 91. 9 97. 2 95. 4 92. 0 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 152. 8 147. 2 123. 4 158. 8 165. 3 Production (mil. bu. ) 12, 447 12, 360 10, 780 13, 925 13, 985 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 708 1, 128 989 821 1, 456 Imports (mil. bu. ) 28 29 162 35 25 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 14, 182 13, 517 11, 932 14, 781 15, 466 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 4, 795 4, 557 4, 335 5, 300 5, 400 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 5, 019 5, 000 4, 648 5, 000 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 407 1, 428 1, 396 1, 400 1, 430 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 834 1, 543 731 1, 625 1, 550 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 13, 055 12, 528 11, 111 13, 300 13, 380 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 128 989 821 1, 456 2, 086 5. 18 6. 22 6. 89 4. 50 3. 90 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB for 2010 -13 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Area Planted (mil.

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77. 4 75. 0 77. 2 76. 5 79. 5 Yield (bu. /acre) 43. 5 41. 9 39. 8 43. 3 45. 2 Production (mil. bu. ) 3, 329 3, 094 3, 034 3, 289 3, 550 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 151 215 169 141 145 Imports (mil. bu. ) 14 16 36 35 15 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 3, 495 3, 325 3, 239 3, 464 3, 710 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 648 1, 703 1, 689 1, 690 1, 725 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 130 88 90 99 105 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 501 1, 365 1, 320 1, 530 1, 600 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 3, 280 3, 155 3, 099 3, 319 3, 430 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 215 169 141 145 280 11. 30 12. 50 14. 40 12. 95 9. 65 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB for 2010 -13 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Yields Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension

Corn Yields Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Yields Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension

Soybean Yields Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and

Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Grind for Ethanol Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Grind for Ethanol Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Corn Futures 4. 62 4. 58 4. 57 Source: CME Group, 3/10/2014 Extension

Current Corn Futures 4. 62 4. 58 4. 57 Source: CME Group, 3/10/2014 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Soybean Futures 13. 03 11. 43 10. 86 Source: CME Group, 3/10/2014 Extension

Current Soybean Futures 13. 03 11. 43 10. 86 Source: CME Group, 3/10/2014 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU

Corn Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU

Soybean Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2013/14 Crop Prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2013/14 Crop Prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2014/15 Crop Margins Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2014/15 Crop Margins Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Source: droughtmonitor. unl. edu Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Source: droughtmonitor. unl. edu Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

3 -Month Temperature Outlook Source: NOAA-CPC Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

3 -Month Temperature Outlook Source: NOAA-CPC Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

3 -Month Precipitation Outlook Source: NOAA-CPC Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

3 -Month Precipitation Outlook Source: NOAA-CPC Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond ØSupply/demand concerns ØDemand rebounding? Yes, so far, so good

Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond ØSupply/demand concerns ØDemand rebounding? Yes, so far, so good ØAcreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go? ØMarkets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term 2013/14 USDA Corn Soybeans $4. 50 $12. 95 2014/15 2013/14 2014/15 USDA Futures Unofficial (3/10/14) $3. 90 $4. 62 $4. 58 $9. 65 $13. 03 $11. 43 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Markets Source: USDA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Markets Source: USDA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Arable Land Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Arable Land Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www. econ. iastate.

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www. econ. iastate. edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics