Voting Campaigns and Elections Elections and Democracy Prospective

Voting, Campaigns, and Elections

Elections and Democracy ¤ Prospective (or Responsible Party) Voting Model ¤ Electoral Competition Voting Model ¤ Retrospective (or Reward and Punishment) Voting Model ¤ Imperfect Electoral Democracy

Prospective (or Responsible Party) Voting Model ¤ Theory n Parties must be cohesive and unified n Parties must take different policy stands n Voters must perceive these policy stands n Winning party must do what it said ¤ Potential Problems n Intense, heated conflict n Gridlock n Priorities

Voting in the United States ¤ Expansion of the Franchise ¤ Low Voting Turnout ¤ White male suffrage n Property, taxpaying, and religion barriers n Dropped by 1829

At the polls 10.

Expansion of the Franchise ¤ Blacks, women, and young people n Fifteenth Amendment (1870) n Voting Rights Act (1965) n Nineteenth Amendment (1920) ¤ Direct partisan elections n Presidential electors elected n Seventeenth Amendment (1913)

Low Voting Turnout ¤ Barriers to voting n Registration n “Motor Voter” law (1996) n Picture ID requirements

Low Voting Turnout ¤ Too much complexity ¤ Decline in competitive elections ¤ Weak voter mobilization by local parties ¤ Other possibilities

FIGURE 10. 2: Rise and fall of turnout in presidential elections, 1789 -2012

Why is voter turnout lower in America than in most other democratic countries? a. Registration can be a hassle b. Many elections are not competitive c. Elections are held on a weekday d. All of the above

Who Votes? ¤ Income and Education ¤ Race and Ethnicity ¤ Age ¤ Gender ¤ Does It Matter Who Votes?

Income and Education ¤ Higher income = more likely to vote ¤ More years of education = greater likelihood of voting n Chief indicator ¤ Why the correlation?

Race and Ethnicity ¤ Nearly equal numbers of blacks and whites vote n Gaps due to income, education ¤ Latino voting increasing n Low income, language barriers n Fewer eligible voters registered

FIGURE 10. 3: Congressional election turnout by social group, 2012 elections

Age ¤ Older = more likely to vote n Turnout highest for over 65 age group n Lowest for under 25 age group ¤ Why low turnout for youth? n n Less rooted in communities in habit of voting clear on stakes of election familiar with procedures

Mobilizing the youth vote

10. 4 Gender ¤ Gender gap disappeared by 1980 s n Women vote at higher rates than men ¤ Progress in gender equality responsible n Education, income © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Does It Matter Who Votes? ¤ Do policy preferences of nonvoters differ? n Misleading studies showed they do not ¤ Demographics differ n Poor are non-voters

Which hypothetical citizen is most likely to vote? a. A white man with a high school diploma b. A black woman with a graduate degree c. A white man with a college degree d. A Latino woman with a GED © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Gaining the Nomination ¤ Who has a chance? n n Sitting president presumptive nominee Rich, older white men Governors and Congressmen, VPs Mainstream ¤ Getting started n Exploratory committee 2 -3 years out n Fund-raising and public financing

Gathering votes

Gaining the Nomination ¤ Presidential primaries and caucuses n Open or closed primaries n Early wins establish momentum n Front-loading primaries

Public face of party conventions

General Election Campaign ¤ Getting the campaign up and running n n Campaign begins earlier today Focus on battleground states Attack ads Micro-targeting ¤ Informing voters n Issues n Past performance n Personal characteristics 10. 5

Obama on the campaign trail

FIGURE 10. 4: Growth in spending in presidential elections

Money in General Elections ¤ Hard money n n Individuals Candidates Political Action Committees (PACs) Political parties

TABLE 10. 1: Hard money contribution limits 2013 -2014

Money in General Elections ¤ Public funding ¤ Other money n 527 s n 501 s

Getting “Swift Boated”

Money in General Elections ¤ Other money n Super PACs-Play an increasingly significant role. ¤ Does money talk? n Money grants access n Money grants influence n Money-givers have different interests

How Voters Decide ¤ Social characteristics n Major determinant of voter choice ¤ Party loyalties n Shortcut ¤ Candidates n Image over substance ¤ Issues n Retrospective voting

Presidential vote in 2012, by social group

Electoral College ¤ Winner-take-all in most states n Except Maine and Nebraska ¤ Features of Electoral College n Magnifies popular support of winners n May let less popular candidate win n Discourages third parties

TABLE 10. 2: Election results, 19802012 © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Discussion Questions Do elections ensure popular control of government? Why or why not? How does who votes and who doesn’t vote influence the type of government policies we get?