Voting Campaigns and Elections Elections and Democracy Prospective

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Voting, Campaigns, and Elections

Voting, Campaigns, and Elections

Elections and Democracy ¤ Prospective (or Responsible Party) Voting Model ¤ Electoral Competition Voting

Elections and Democracy ¤ Prospective (or Responsible Party) Voting Model ¤ Electoral Competition Voting Model ¤ Retrospective (or Reward and Punishment) Voting Model ¤ Imperfect Electoral Democracy © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Prospective (or Responsible Party) Voting Model ¤ Theory n n Parties must be cohesive

Prospective (or Responsible Party) Voting Model ¤ Theory n n Parties must be cohesive and unified Parties must take different policy stands Voters must perceive these policy stands Winning party must do what it said ¤ Potential Problems n Intense, heated conflict n Gridlock n Priorities © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Electoral Competition Voting Model ¤ Theory n Appeal to median voter n Should not

Electoral Competition Voting Model ¤ Theory n Appeal to median voter n Should not matter which party wins ¤ Potential problems n Assumes parties are unified n Assumes parties are vote-seeking, not ideological © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

FIGURE 10. 1: Electoral Competition Model © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

FIGURE 10. 1: Electoral Competition Model © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Retrospective (or Reward and Punishment) Voting Model ¤ Theory n Voters vote retrospectively n

Retrospective (or Reward and Punishment) Voting Model ¤ Theory n Voters vote retrospectively n Politicians must anticipate public wants ¤ Potential problems n Gets rid of bad leaders only after they have made bad policies n Encourages short-term policymaking © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Unique Nature of American Elections ¤ Elections are numerous and frequent ¤ Elections are

Unique Nature of American Elections ¤ Elections are numerous and frequent ¤ Elections are separate and independent from one another ¤ Inconsistent election procedures and votecounting ¤ Elected positions have fixed terms of office ¤ Elections are held on a fixed date © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Expansion of the Franchise ¤ White male suffrage n Property, taxpaying, and religion barriers

Expansion of the Franchise ¤ White male suffrage n Property, taxpaying, and religion barriers n Dropped by 1829 © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Expansion of the Franchise ¤ Blacks, women, and young people n Fifteenth Amendment (1870)

Expansion of the Franchise ¤ Blacks, women, and young people n Fifteenth Amendment (1870) n Voting Rights Act (1965) n Nineteenth Amendment (1920) ¤ Direct partisan elections n Presidential electors elected n Seventeenth Amendment (1913) © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Low Voting Turnout ¤ Barriers to voting n Registration n “Motor Voter” law (1996)

Low Voting Turnout ¤ Barriers to voting n Registration n “Motor Voter” law (1996) n Picture ID requirements © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Low Voting Turnout ¤ Too much complexity ¤ Decline in competitive elections ¤ Weak

Low Voting Turnout ¤ Too much complexity ¤ Decline in competitive elections ¤ Weak voter mobilization by local parties ¤ Other possibilities © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Income and Education ¤ Higher income = more likely to vote ¤ More years

Income and Education ¤ Higher income = more likely to vote ¤ More years of education = greater likelihood of voting n Chief indicator ¤ Why the correlation? © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Race and Ethnicity ¤ Nearly equal numbers of blacks and whites vote n Gaps

Race and Ethnicity ¤ Nearly equal numbers of blacks and whites vote n Gaps due to income, education ¤ Latino voting increasing n Low income, language barriers n Fewer eligible voters registered © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 10. 4

Age ¤ Older = more likely to vote n Turnout highest for over 65

Age ¤ Older = more likely to vote n Turnout highest for over 65 age group n Lowest for under 25 age group ¤ Why low turnout for youth? n n Less rooted in communities in habit of voting clear on stakes of election familiar with procedures © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Gaining the Nomination ¤ Presidential primaries and caucuses n Open or closed primaries n

Gaining the Nomination ¤ Presidential primaries and caucuses n Open or closed primaries n Early wins establish momentum n Front-loading primaries © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Gaining the Nomination ¤ Presidential nominating conventions n Coronation ceremony © 2015 Pearson Education,

Gaining the Nomination ¤ Presidential nominating conventions n Coronation ceremony © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Gaining the Nomination ¤ Nominating incumbent presidents ¤ Nomination politics and democracy n Delegates

Gaining the Nomination ¤ Nominating incumbent presidents ¤ Nomination politics and democracy n Delegates tend to be extreme partisans © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

General Election Campaign ¤ Getting the campaign up and running n n Campaign begins

General Election Campaign ¤ Getting the campaign up and running n n Campaign begins earlier today Focus on battleground states Attack ads Micro-targeting ¤ Informing voters n Issues n Past performance n Personal characteristics © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Obama on the campaign trail © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Obama on the campaign trail © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Money in General Elections ¤ Scale of campaign money and where it comes from

Money in General Elections ¤ Scale of campaign money and where it comes from © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Money in General Elections ¤ Hard money n n Individuals Candidates Political Action Committees

Money in General Elections ¤ Hard money n n Individuals Candidates Political Action Committees (PACs) Political parties © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

TABLE 10. 1: Hard money contribution limits 2013 -2014 © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc.

TABLE 10. 1: Hard money contribution limits 2013 -2014 © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Getting “Swift Boated” © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Getting “Swift Boated” © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Money in General Elections ¤ Other money n Super PACs ¤ Does money talk?

Money in General Elections ¤ Other money n Super PACs ¤ Does money talk? n Money grants access n Money grants influence n Money-givers have different interests © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

FIGURE 10. 5: Presidential vote in 2012, by social group © 2015 Pearson Education,

FIGURE 10. 5: Presidential vote in 2012, by social group © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

TABLE 10. 2: Election results, 1980 -2012 © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights

TABLE 10. 2: Election results, 1980 -2012 © 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.