Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Arms Control and

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Peace Research Institute Frankfurt - PRIF Arms Control and Information Warfare Problems, Prospects, Policies.

Peace Research Institute Frankfurt - PRIF Arms Control and Information Warfare Problems, Prospects, Policies. . and a Plea for a New Approach towards Arms Control ISODARCO 2002 Olivier Minkwitz, PRIF

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF This Presentation is

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF This Presentation is about. . n What is Arms Control? Definition, Functions, Effects and Instruments n Why Arms Control in the Information Age? n Problems of Arms Control n Prospects of Arms Control n New Approaches towards Arms Control traditional vs. qualitative and preventive n Main Point: “Building a Culture of restraint” 2

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF What is Arms

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF What is Arms Control ? n Arms Control is not “Disarmament“ n Terms often used synonymously, but. . . n Disarmament aims at the complete reduction of arms and of the military as an instrument of politics n Disarmament is older, used more often n has some utopian connotation and has often failed. . 3

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF What is Arms

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF What is Arms Control ? n Arms Control is a pragmatic concept n Management of arms dynamics and stability n Hay-days of the concept in the 50’s n Definition: “all forms of military cooperation, between political enemies, in the interest of reducing the likelihood of war, its scope and violence” (Schelling, 1961) 4

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF What is Arms

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF What is Arms Control ? Arms Control or Disarmament ? n artificial analytical distinction and separation: nethics of “effects” or “principles” n Arms Control and Disarmament vary in: nperspective, policy advice and actual effects n but share common goals: nlikelihood, scope and violence of war 5

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF What is Arms

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF What is Arms Control ? n Functions n Effects n Schools of thought n Prerequisites & Requirements n Instruments n What critics say 6

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Six Functions of

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Six Functions of Arms Control 1) freeze, limit, reduce, abolish categories or designs of certain weapons 2) prevent certain military activities 3) regulate the deployment of armed forces 4) proscribe transfers of militarily important items 5) constrain, prohibit the use of certain weapons 6) build up confidence through openness 7

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Six Functions of

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Six Functions of Arms Control 1) freeze, limit, reduce, abolish categories of certain weapons 2) prevent certain military activities 3) regulate the deployment of armed forces 4) proscribe transfers of militarily important items 5) constrain, prohibit the use of certain weapons 6) build up confidence through openness 8

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Possible Effects of

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Possible Effects of Arms Control Level 1: International Stability & Security Policy n n reduces the risk of war started by accident slow down global, regional arms races increase predictability, reduce fears minimize destruction, suffering in armed conflicts Level 2: Social and Normative Effects n n minimize disparities between heavily and lightly armed states save resources for economic, social development promote trust and understanding among nations prospect of peaceful relations 9

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Two Theories of

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Two Theories of Arms Control n Realist Approach n immediate effects n national interest, national instrument èArms Control as an objective n Constructivist/Postmodern Approach n secondary effects n interaction, discourse, changing of interests èArms Control as a process 10

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Prerequisites of Arms

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Prerequisites of Arms Control n Conflicts and Arms Control are components of international politics; mitigation n certain conflicts cannot be directly affected by interstate arms control (revolutionary, liberation movements, terrorism) n Arms control is for adversaries (not for allies? , only state actors? Arms control from below? ) n share common interest in avoiding war 11

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Instruments and Methods

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Instruments and Methods of Arms Control n Retributive Measures: 1) forceful imposition of arms limits (Cartage, MTA) n Unilateral Measures: 2) unilateral neglect 3) unilateral decision (interwar period) (Mongolia) n Reciprocal Measures: 4) bilateral negotiation 5) multilateral negotiation (ABM, INF, SALT) (Hague, Tlatelolco, NPT) 12

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Instruments and Methods

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Instruments and Methods n Negotiation of Treaties, Agreements(formalization) n Geographical Measures (regional demilitarized zones) n Structural Measures (defensive orientation) n Operative Measures (limitation of maneuvers) n Verification and Compliance (data exchange, Inspections) n Declaratory Measures (declaration of restraint) n CSBM (reassure intentions, communication channels) 13

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Critics of Arms

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Critics of Arms Control Progressive Critics: n freezes status quo n arms races: bargaining chips n arms build up through Arms Control ! Conservative Critics: n only succeeds when unimportant n causes conflict, suspicion in the first place n problems of verification n House of Cards ! 14

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Critics of Arms

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Critics of Arms Control Pragmatics Critics: n You need a hegemonic power to create or sustain any (Arms Control) agreements n Arms Control is nothing small, civil or economic powers can persue on their own n Today, US shows no interest in Arms Control! è tailored unilateralism / multilateralism è deformalization of Arms Control (SORT 2002, flexibility, friends) 15

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Why Arms Control

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Why Arms Control in the Information Age? Controlling Information Warfare, Information Operations, Computer Network Operation ? 6 Key Reasons: 1) Realist Reasons 2) Technical Risks 3) Economic Reasons 4) Normative Reasons 5) Timing & Ethics 6) Constructivist Reason 16

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 6 Reasons for

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 6 Reasons for Arms Control 1) International Security n IW/IO already elements in today’s conflicts (Kosovo, P-3, Israel-Palestine, Afghanistan. . . ) n definite source of conflict in the future n Proliferation of RMA, IW, IO, CNO Strategies, Doctrine, Concepts and Thinking throughout the military world, implementation n Question of interest! Who will benefit from RMA in the long run? Peer competitors, state 17 or non-stated Actors? Driver’s seat?

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 6 Reasons for

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 6 Reasons for Arms Control 2) Technical Risks: n complex interdependence of technological systems n cascades, dynamics n Danger, Threats, Risks, Vulnerabilities? (all still rests on FUD: Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt ) 18

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 6 Reasons for

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 6 Reasons for Arms Control 3) Economic & 4) Normative Reasons: n IO/IW undermines trust in the way we make business (e-commerce, . . ) n IO/IW undermines trust in international relations 19

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 6 Reasons for

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 6 Reasons for Arms Control 5) Reasons of Timing & Ethics: n Question of new technology in general (Nuclear technology, Biotech, IT. . ) n modern technology: Janus-faced technology n “Verantwortungsethik” (Ethic of Responsibility) n Time 20

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 6 Reasons for

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 6 Reasons for Arms Control 6) Constructivist/Postmodern Approach n Arms Control as a process n Innovation not Technology-immanent n No “technological imperative” n weapons like all technological systems are socially and politically embedded systems (RMA, War and “Democratic Peace”!) 21

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Excursion I: RMA,

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Excursion I: RMA, War and the “Democratic Peace” n “RMA happen” (historian perspective) vs. RMA’s are being made (strategist’s view) n Democracies make RMA’s happen! n. Post-heroic: Material, human costs n. Democratic War: moral, cost of legitimacy n Undermines the “Democratic peace” n. Democracy, democratic Institutions, Identity and Norms n makes the military are more usable instrument in international relations 22

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Problems of Arms

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Problems of Arms Control in the Information Age n Abstract and Vagueness n not like WMD, small arms, weapons platforms n RMA, IW, IO Doctrines, strategy n Real Threats and Vulnerabilities remain unclear: FUD? n Weapons of Mass Disruption or merely n computer security, password security and n computer user & administrator education, awareness ? 23

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Problems of Arms

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Problems of Arms Control in the Information Age n Concerns of Definition: n what would constitute a cyberweapon, attack or actor ? n Offense, defense? Armed aggression, international law? n Strategies, doctrine, concepts and technology n Policy Concerns n Forums, Actors (UN, ITU, NGOs) n Economic Concerns n Normative Concerns n Would we even want to control the flow of Information/Technology n democratic potential of IT, free speech. . . 24

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Problems of Arms

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Problems of Arms Control in the Information Age n Concerns of Verification and Compliance n can we even control the flow of information, software, and technology? n Paradoxes & Counter-production n would any approach through formal abolition not automatically also define what is allowed? n Create trade, development barriers? 25

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Prospects of Arms

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Prospects of Arms Control What then are viable options? Approaches worth examining? Do nothing? Being overwhelmed by technological determinism? 26

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Prospects of Arms

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Prospects of Arms Control 1) freeze, limit, reduce, abolish categories of certain weapons 2) prevent certain military activities 3) regulate the deployment of armed forces 4) proscribe transfers of militarily important items 5) constrain, prohibit the use of certain weapons 6) build up confidence through openness 27

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Prospects of Arms

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Prospects of Arms Control n Focus on State-actors: Military, Intelligence Organization n Geographic Measure: demilitarized zones, Infrastructure n Structural Measures: Abolition of offensive IO, CNA, mingling of civil/military Infrastructure n Operative Measures: ban IO, CNA except in war, general ban; no IW Methods when effects are not known 28

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Prospects of Arms

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Prospects of Arms Control n Technology/Means oriented: abolition of certain software tools, system architecture n Proliferation-oriented Measures: Exportcontrols n Actors-oriented: banning the usage, possession of certain technologies by militaries n Goal-oriented: banning the attack on civil Infrastructure in general 29

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Prospects of Arms

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Prospects of Arms Control n Verification Measures: logging, identification of military activities, Monitoring, open source verification through NGOs n classical instruments 30

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Prospects of Arms

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Prospects of Arms Control Creating soft Norms and Taboos: n Declaratory Means n Code of Conduct n No-First Use n offensive Information Operations/Computer Network Attacks n Strategy & Doctrine n Information Warfare Convention n off targets list n IW Regime as Norms trap n “Culture of restraint” as a first step 31

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Different Approaches to

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Different Approaches to Arms Control in the Information Age n Traditional, classical Arms Control focuses: n. Capabilities based n. Quantities of weapons n Postmodern Arms Control focuses on: n. Intention based n. Identity of Actors n. Quality of weapons nnew Actors, business, NGOs, Hackers n. Preventive Arms Control Measures: Identification of military critical technology, R&D, civil oversight, Weapons programs 32

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Want to know

Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF Want to know more ? Mailto: minkwitz@hsfk. de PRIF: Peace Research Institute Frankfurt www. hsfk. de Fo. GIS: Research Information Society and Security Policy, Berlin www. fogis. de Mailinglist infowar. de 33