Outline of Presentations 1 ASEAN 2 ASEAN1 3

Outline of Presentations 1. 認識鄰居 -- ASEAN 2. ASEAN+1 ? 3. ASEAN經濟淺析 (各國的產業結構) 4. 台灣與ASEAN的經貿往來 2020/11/24 2

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東南亞國協 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) 2020/11/24 6

地理位置 Some countries have many islands and can face with problems regarding their unity 2020/11/24 9

東協經濟體有多大? 人口 (萬人) 汶萊 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 33. 4348 34. 1585 34. 8771 35. 5943 36. 3123 37. 0317 37. 7513 38. 4695 39. 1837 39. 892 柬埔寨 1265. 3684 1284. 5222 1302. 4171 1319. 3961 1335. 7574 1351. 5884 1366. 9857 1382. 2644 1397. 7903 印尼 寮國 21620. 3499 21902. 6365 22183. 9235 22460. 6531 22730. 3175 22991. 855 23246. 1746 23495. 1154 23741. 4495 540. 8912 549. 67 558. 2028 566. 7055 575. 3341 584. 1572 593. 1385 602. 2001 611. 2143 2011 2012 40. 5938 41. 2238 1413. 8255 1430. 5183 1486. 46 23987. 0937 24232. 5638 24688. 42 620. 0894 628. 8037 664. 5287 馬來西 2396. 4621 2451. 5323 2506. 0184 2559. 0453 2610. 0241 2658. 6287 2705. 1142 2750. 2008 2794. 9395 亞 2840. 1017 2885. 9154 2923. 88 緬甸 4796. 3012 4833. 6763 5279. 73 4532. 3903 4560. 9292 4584. 3675 4607. 0248 4632. 1162 4660. 5278 4691. 5826 4725. 0315 4760. 1374 菲律賓 7896. 4389 8063. 0416 8229. 399 8393. 6698 8554. 6427 8711. 6275 8865. 2631 9017. 3139 9170. 309 9326. 0798 458. 86 483. 94 498. 76 507. 67 6588. 396 6607. 6927 6618. 534 6627. 7335 8512. 23 8602. 5 新加坡 413. 8 417. 6 411. 48 416. 67 426. 58 泰國 6306. 91 6379. 784 6448. 8338 6508. 74 6555. 948 越南 7862. 1 7953. 87 8046. 84 8143. 77 8239. 35 440. 14 8331. 3 8422. 11 54869. 1456 55599. 7443 56309. 3592 57015. 2689 57701. 3823 58361. 252 59001. 6727 59633. 2996 60253. 0172 9485. 203 9670. 67 518. 37 531. 24 6640. 23 6657. 6332 6678. 5 8692. 77 8784 8877. 55 60874. 0533 61508. 2775 62854. 2 人口總數約中國的一半 !! 2020/11/24 14

n 人均所得 (current US$) 中國? ? 2002 2004 1, 135 1, 490 與菲律賓相當 2020/11/24 2007 2, 651 2010 4, 433 與泰國相當 2013 6, 807 15

n GDP Growth Rate 2020/11/24 16

n GDP (與中國比較) 2020/11/24 17

3. ASEAN+Japan 東協和日本的“全面經濟夥伴協定, Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Partner among Japan and ASEAN”(2008年 12月生效)，則要 到 2018年才會逐步全面生效. (10 chapters, 80 articles) http: //www. mofa. go. jp/policy/economy/fta/asean/agreement. pdf 2020/11/24 20

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ASEAN的未來發展願景 Source: http: //cogitasia. com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/asean 1. jpg 2020/11/24 24

Ex: 高鐵外交 資料來源: https: //sp. yimg. com/ib/th? id=JN. jh 2 u. VSJk 4 Nf. DNm 2 m. TDWt 8 w&pid=15. 1&w=165&h=99&p=0 2020/11/24 26

三. ASEAN各國經濟簡介 (selective) 新加坡 汶萊 馬來西亞 泰國 印尼 菲律賓 越南 寮國 柬埔寨 緬甸 2020/11/24 農業 業 服務業 0. 03% 25. 10% 74. 90% 0. 76% 31. 10% 31. 00% 10. 36% 40. 50% 50. 20% 12. 39% 42. 50% 45. 50% 15. 29% 45. 50% 39. 90% 12. 31% 31. 10% 57. 70% 18. 89% 38. 30% 43. 30% 32. 75% 33. 10% 40. 40% 36. 02% 25. 60% 40. 80%. . . 27

2. 所得不均度 2020/11/24 28

2011年經濟普查 Formal 與 Informal 指有登記與未登記廠商 2020/11/24 30

各國經濟簡介 越南: 下一個世界 廠? 1. transition economy, 1986, Doi Moi policy (Đổi mới is Vietnamese for “renovation”), 外資開始進入越南, 出口導向, but 國有企業…. . 三成多!! 2020/11/24 31

外人直接投資概況 1. 1988 -1990 : US$111, 693 million 2. 2013: US$ 115, 500 million 2020/11/24 32

2. 1999企業法, 私人企業開始設立 2005年投資法修法, 外資的投資行業管制大幅開放 2005年企業法修法, 內資與外資的權利 2007年初正式加入WTO 3. 越南重點產業: 食品(15), 紡織(17), 成衣(18), 製鞋(19) 4. Ohno (2009) At present, Vietnam does not have an overall industrial master plan. The industrial chapters of the Five-year Plan and the Ten-year Strategy do not offer a consistent industrial vision. As a result, many important policy questions remain unanswered, including the future roles of SOEs, private firms, and FDI, respectively; the choice between export orientation and import substitution under deepening integration; and the scope and extent of official support to emerging as well as declining industries 2020/11/24 33

所有權分佈 2020/11/24 34

產業分佈 　 Manufacturing Producing food and beverage Manufacture of tobacco products Textile Manufacture of wearing apparel dressing and dyeing of fur Tanning, dressing of leather and manufacture of luggage handbags Wood processing, manufacture of product made from bamboo Manufacture of pulp paper and paperboard Publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media Manufacture of coke, refined petroleum and nuclear fuel Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products Manufacture of rubber and plastic products Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products Manufacture of metal products Manufacture of machine and other equipment nec. Manufacture of office accounting and computing machinery Manufacture of engines and other electrical equipment Manufacture of radio, television and communicative equipment Manufacture of medical instrument, accurate instruments, optical instrument and clock Manufacture of motor vehicles and trailers Manufacture of other transport Manufacture of furniture and other products Recycling 2020/11/24 2000 10399 3485 24 408 579 2001 12353 3592 28 491 763 2002 14794 3954 24 626 996 2003 16916 4114 26 708 1211 2004 20531 4484 25 843 1567 2005 24017 5076 25 1046 1745 2006 26863 5437 24 1250 1958 2007 31057 5982 25 1367 2352 258 742 386 270 11 410 467 1104 116 623 237 3 166 92 308 887 488 410 12 520 616 1216 169 868 327 6 196 103 356 1078 563 566 13 631 805 1301 223 1238 398 12 242 122 396 1186 680 753 10 759 911 1385 267 1573 492 17 287 149 508 1478 817 1073 17 901 1164 1633 324 2126 593 26 371 192 580 1710 985 1295 15 1071 1457 1788 409 2608 690 26 421 212 565 2032 1100 1740 31 1237 1643 1885 473 3056 756 30 459 226 663 2390 1216 1917 26 1389 1984 2090 594 3771 919 39 470 282 44 177 265 527 5 50 217 327 746 13 62 273 373 923 15 63 261 422 1219 27 78 311 475 1488 37 94 377 554 1796 37 123 264 585 1921 68 139 328 683 2343 88 35

地理分佈 2020/11/24 36

Exports of goods by Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) US million 2020/11/24 37

泰國經濟發展 Development Policy Thailand adopts the so-called liberal market-oriented policies. With the help of a world bank team in 1957, Thailand 1. The expansion of infrastructure. 2. The improvement of education and health services. 3. The encouragement of foreign and local investments to increase exports with particular emphasis on agricultural commodities while promoting industrial products as import- substitutes. 4. The strengthening of existing as well as new institutions to manage the package of economic policies. 5. Private entrepreneurs were encouraged as markets were liberalized. So……. 2020/11/24 40

Key indicator 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1 July of the year 55. 84 59. 40 60. 00 60. 60 61. 20 61. 81 62. 2362 62. 8361 63. 4188 63. 982 LABOUR FORCE 31750 31878. 2 32123 32575 32410 32719 33223. 8 33813. 5 34262 34902 Employed 30844 30815 30976 31522 30105 30663 31292. 6 32104. 2 33061 33841 Agriculture 19726 14389 13986 14145 13407 13804 13830. 4 13611. 8 14042 Manufacturing 3133 4608 4329 4303 4264 4274 Mining 54 55 53 52 45 64 Others 7931 11763 12608 13022 12389 POPULATION 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 65. 10 65. 57 66. 04 66. 50 63. 60 63. 80 64. 10 64. 40 35718 36132 36429 36942 37700 38427 38644 38900 39416 34729 35257 35686 36249 37017 37706 38037 38457 38950 13880 13634 13617 14171 14306 14699 14693 14547 14619 15142 5299 5476 5588 5504 5619 5453 5374 5350 5480 5733 47 50 57 58 63 58 51 41 50 73 14615 15568 15996 15953 16261 16806 17589 18100 18308 18003 Million persons 64. 53 Thousand persons 4650. 1 4926. 92 5052 44. 5108 49. 9718 45 12522 12767. 6 13515. 5 13922 NATIONAL ACCOUNTS Billion baht GDP at current market prices 2183. 5 4210. 6 4631. 1 4702. 1 4693. 2 4781. 5 5060. 0 5334. 1 5759. 4 6305. 6 6943. 9 7586. 3 8365. 3 9037. 8 9658. 7 9591. 0 10710. 0 11121. 0 12002. 0 GDP at constant prices (*) 1945. 4 5057. 6 5344. 0 5196. 6 4799. 0 5018. 9 5242. 9 5423. 7 5759. 4 6172. 7 6562. 9 6836. 9 7174. 5 7565. 2 7689. 7 7622. 0 8181. 0 8209. 0 8741. 0 Agriculture 263. 6 411. 5 433. 3 431. 2 434. 2 455. 2 486. 1 501. 7 561. 7 555. 4 555. 1 577. 0 587. 9 605. 1 597. 4 592. 8 627. 2 97. 3 113. 7 120. 7 112. 7 120. 6 126. 4 126. 6 137. 0 149. 5 153. 5 172. 1 181. 9 189. 2 197. 7 197. 9 208. 5 200. 8 Mining 31. 1 Manufacturing 540. 9 1347. 4 1424. 3 1436. 7 1316. 3 1445. 4 1493. 2 1522. 5 1656. 8 1825. 1 1961. 2 2043. 8 2158. 5 2314. 5 2366. 2 2290. 1 2550. 5 2427. 2 Electricity, gas & water 46. 8 118. 4 125. 8 134. 8 136. 6 136. 2 150. 9 165. 2 176. 8 184. 4 Construction 116. 6 373. 0 402. 8 290. 9 194. 0 175. 4 157. 0 157. 8 166. 7 Trade 338. 1 971. 6 994. 7 970. 9 862. 7 870. 2 888. 1 913. 9 930. 2 Transport, communication 146. 8 313. 8 345. 2 359. 0 349. 7 381. 7 413. 2 450. 1 Finance 108. 1 658. 6 697. 4 617. 5 518. 9 528. 7 593. 8 620. 1 Public administration 61. 4 228. 9 244. 4 263. 8 288. 2 305. 6 314. 2 Others 292. 0 546. 0 571. 6 580. 6 590. 7 603. 5 623. 1 25. 59 24. 92 25. 34 31. 36 41. 36 37. 81 40. 11 198. 3 208. 1 215. 9 227. 8 239. 8 248. 8 265. 2 268. 8 171. 7 185. 6 204. 1 206. 5 214. 6 202. 9 210. 5 228. 5 202. 8 975. 0 1023. 6 1044. 1 1098. 4 1175. 7 1173. 5 1145. 9 1248. 5 1243. 7 485. 1 494. 8 550. 4 577. 0 627. 1 680. 4 689. 8 681. 4 727. 9 702. 0 781. 5 851. 6 907. 7 947. 3 977. 0 986. 8 996. 2 1053. 1 1109. 1 324. 3 340. 6 349. 9 350. 8 368. 6 379. 4 408. 4 421. 4 444. 4 465. 3 496. 0 644. 1 662. 4 679. 2 734. 9 759. 8 789. 4 801. 8 814. 8 815. 4 859. 8 904. 0 44. 43 42. 96 40. 22 37. 88 34. 52 33. 30 34. 30 31. 70 30. 50 EXCHANGE RATES Average of period 745. 2 Bahts / 1 USD EXTERNAL TRADE 41. 48 40. 22 31. 10 Bill. bahts Export, FOB 589. 8 1381. 7 1378. 9 1789. 8 2181. 1 2150. 0 2730. 9 2802. 5 2837. 7 3233. 1 3822. 8 4406. 7 4838. 2 5212. 2 5851. 4 5194. 6 6113. 3 6708. 0 7091. 3 Import, CIF 844. 4 1755. 5 1796. 5 1874. 6 1678. 0 1800. 1 2513. 5 2691. 6 2719. 4 3077. 5 3764. 0 4733. 4 4803. 9 4773. 1 5962. 5 4602. 0 5856. 6 6982. 7 7738. 5 Trade balance -254. 6 -373. 8 2020/11/24 -417. 6 -84. 8 503. 1 349. 9 217. 4 111. 0 118. 2 155. 6 58. 8 -326. 7 34. 3 439. 1 -111. 1 592. 6 256. 7 -274. 7 -647. 2 41

n FDI帶動出口成長 Foreign Direct Investment Net Inflows in Thailand during the period of 1970 -1999. 2020/11/24 42

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前十大出口產品(2010 -2011) 2020/11/24 45

Per Capita GDP (current US$) 1960: 100. 89 1985: 747. 63 1965: 137. 95 1990: 1508. 29 1970: 192. 16 1995: 2848. 55 1975: 351. 57 1996: 3054. 75 1980: 683. 01 2006: 3143. 24 2020/11/24 花了十年由亞洲金融風暴回復 46

低失業率 1987: 5. 8% 1991: 2. 7% 1998: 3. 4% n 8 自 2002年起低於 2% 2011: 0. 7% 2012: 0. 7% Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) 7 Unemployment, male (% of male labor force) 6 Unemployment, female (% of female labor force) 5 4 3 2 1 0 198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012 2020/11/24 47

n Problems 1. 貧窮問題 (所得分配不均) 2020/11/24 48

2. 產業結構問題 Services, etc. , value added (% of GDP) Industry, value added (% of GDP) Agriculture value-addded (% of GDP) 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0% It looks good that the share of manufacturing sector to GDP increased gradually, but…… 2020/11/24 49

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台灣主要出口國家的變化 ASEAN 美國 日本 中國(含香港) 45 出口比重 (%) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1991 2020/11/24 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 年 58

Thank you !! ขอบคณครบ 2020/11/24 !! 59