Nanotechnology Society Times of Change Mike Treder Executive

Nanotechnology & Society: Times of Change Mike Treder Executive Director Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Sao Paulo, Brazil n October 18, 2004 © 2004

Graphing History Does history (the record of human change) occur in a straight line? Change Time © 2004

Graphing History No, it is a series of steps. Change Time © 2004

Graphing History No, it is a series of steps. Change Steam Power Printing Press Written Language Spoken Language (Prehistory) Time © 2004

Industrial Revolution The last two centuries have seen a series of steps we call the Industrial Revolution(s). Change Computers Automobiles Railways Steam Engines (Middle Ages) Time © 2004

Industrial Revolutions First Revolution (1780– 1840) Based in United Kingdom Ø Steam Engine Ø Textile Industry Ø Mechanical Engineering © 2004

Industrial Revolutions Second Revolution (1840– 1900) Based in Europe – England, France, Germany Ø Railways Ø Steel Industry © 2004

Industrial Revolutions Third Revolution (1900– 1950) Based in United States Ø Electric Engine Ø Heavy Chemicals Ø Automobiles Ø Consumer Durables © 2004

Industrial Revolutions Fourth Revolution (1950–Present) Based in Pacific Basin – California, Japan Ø Synthetics Ø Organic Chemicals (Oil) Ø Computers © 2004

Graphing History Each industrial revolution marked a major change— a big step in social, political, and economic history. Computers Automobiles Change Railways Steam Engines Time © 2004

Graphing History But if we look more closely, we can see that these steps actually are s-shaped curves. Change Time © 2004

Graphing History But if we look more closely, we can see that these steps actually are s-shaped curves. Change Time © 2004

Graphing History But if we look more closely, we can see that these steps actually are s-shaped curves. Change Time © 2004

Graphing History But if we look more closely, we can see that these steps actually are s-shaped curves. Change Time © 2004

s ct Im pa So cie ta l Industrial Revolutions Time © 2004

The Next Industrial Revolution Fifth Revolution (2010? – ? ? ) Based in Developing World? China? India? Brazil? Ø Nanotechnology Ø Molecular Manufacturing © 2004

s ct Im pa So cie ta l Industrial Revolutions Time (Measured in decades) © 2004

s ct Im pa So cie ta l Molecular Manufacturing Revolution Time (Measured in YEARS) © 2004

Accelerated Impacts s ct Industrial Revolutions Im pa So cie ta l Molecular Manufacturing Revolution Time © 2004

Im s ct pa So cie ta l The Next Big Step Computers Automobiles Railways Steam Engines (Middle Ages) Time © 2004

Im s ct pa So cie ta l The Next Big Step Nanotechnology Computers Automobiles Railways Steam Engines (Middle Ages) Time © 2004

Accelerated Impacts s ct Industrial Revolutions Im pa So cie ta l Molecular Manufacturing Revolution Time © 2004

Im s ct pa So cie ta l The Next Big Step Nanotechnology Computers Automobiles Railways Steam Engines (Middle Ages) Time © 2004

The Next Big Step Im s ct pa So cie ta l Nanotechnology Computers Automobiles Railways Steam Engines (Middle Ages) Time © 2004

Change is Coming The combined impacts of nanotechnology will equal the Industrial Revolutions of the last two centuries — but with all that change compressed into just a few years. © 2004

Jolt to the System The ability to build anything we can design, by manipulating molecules under direct computer control, will be a jolt to the system. Molecular Mill image courtesy of Eric Drexler © 2004

Jolt to the System The ability to build anything we can design, by manipulating molecules under direct computer control, will be a jolt to the system. Image by John Burch, Lizard Fire Studios A transformative, disruptive, discontinuous jolt to ecological, economic, political, and social systems — on a local, national, and global scale. © 2004

Nanotechnology is… § Not just new products — a new means of production § Manufacturing systems that make more manufacturing § § § systems — exponential proliferation Vastly accelerated product improvement — cheap rapid prototyping Affects all industries and economic sectors — general -purpose technology Inexpensive raw materials, potentially negligible capital cost — economic discontinuity Portable, desktop-size factories — social disruption Impacts will cross borders — global transformation © 2004

Inside a Nanofactory © 2004

Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide. . . © 2004

Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide. . . Lifesaving medical robots or Untraceable weapons of mass destruction © 2004

Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide. . . Lifesaving medical robots or Untraceable weapons of mass destruction Networked computers for everyone in the world or Networked cameras so governments can watch our every move © 2004

Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide. . . Lifesaving medical robots or Untraceable weapons of mass destruction Networked computers for everyone in the world or Networked cameras so governments can watch our every move Trillions of dollars of abundance or A vicious scramble to own everything © 2004

Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide. . . Lifesaving medical robots or Untraceable weapons of mass destruction Networked computers for everyone in the world or Networked cameras so governments can watch our every move Trillions of dollars of abundance or A vicious scramble to own everything Rapid invention of wondrous products or Weapons development fast enough to destabilize any arms race © 2004

Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide. . . Lifesaving medical robots AND Untraceable weapons of mass destruction Networked computers for everyone in the world AND Networked cameras so governments can watch our every move Trillions of dollars of abundance AND A vicious scramble to own everything Rapid invention of wondrous products AND Weapons development fast enough to destabilize any arms race © 2004

Innovation & Economy § Not just new products — a new means of production § Manufacturing systems that make more manufacturing § § § systems — exponential proliferation Vastly accelerated product improvement — cheap rapid prototyping Affects all industries and economic sectors — general -purpose technology Inexpensive raw materials, potentially negligible capital cost — economic discontinuity Portable, desktop-size factories — social disruption Impacts will cross borders — global transformation © 2004

Dangers Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Economic disruption from an abundance of cheap products Economic oppression from artificially inflated prices Personal risk from criminal or terrorist use Constant intrusive surveillance Oppression from abusive restrictions Social disruption from new products/lifestyles Unstable arms race leading to war Collective environmental damage from unregulated products Black market in molecular manufacturing (increases other risks) Competing nanotechnology programs (increases other risks). . . and many more © 2004

Rapid Progress ü Nucleic acid / protein engineering ü NASA study on machine self-replication ü Solution-phase artificial molecular machines ü Tool fabrication process for diamond mechanosynthesis ü Russian roadmap ü Drexler’s roadmap ü Nanofactory design © 2004

The Next Industrial Revolution Fifth Revolution (2010? – ? ? ) Based in Developing World? China? India? Brazil? Ø Nanotechnology Ø Molecular Manufacturing © 2004

Nanotechnology Leadership What it WILL NOT require: • Heavy industry • Scarce natural resources • Massive capital © 2004

Nanotechnology Leadership What it WILL require: • Highly educated scientists and engineers • Long-term (5 -15 years) dedicated effort © 2004

Nanotechnology Leadership What it SHOULD require: • Openness • Cooperation © 2004

What is Needed Now F Awareness of the issues F Technical research F Policy research © 2004

CRN Studies Thirty Essential r of Research o ct e ir D , ix n e o h Chris P notechnology a N le b si n o sp e R Center for Copyright 2004 nology nsible Nanotech Center for Respo A Brooklyn, NY, US

www. Wise-Nano. org A collaborative project to study the facts and implications of advanced nanotechnology — a website for researchers worldwide to work together, helping to build an understanding of the technologies, their effects, and what to do about them. © 2004

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Obrigado muito! Mike Treder Executive Director Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Email: mtreder@CRNano. org