INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION OUTLOOK 2014 Recent trends in migration

INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION OUTLOOK 2014 Recent trends in migration flows and policies in OECD countries 22 JANUARY 2015 Jean-Christophe Dumont Head of International Migration Division Directorate for Employment Labour and Social Affairs OECD

International Migration Outlook 2014 2

Recent trends in migration flows to OECD countries and in Europe

The migration landscape in the OECD is changing Evolution of international migration flows since 2000 (=100) Total Spain - Italy Settlement countries Other Europe Germany Czech Republic (2002=100) 300 Spain - Italy 250 200 Other Europe Total 150 Settlement countries 100 Germany 50 Czech Republic (2002=100) 13 20 12 20 11 20 10 20 09 20 08 20 07 20 06 20 05 20 04 20 03 20 02 20 01 20 20 00 0 Note: Settlement countries include Australia, Canada, New Zealand the United States. “Other Europe” includes all European OECD countries apart from Germany, Italy and Spain. 4 Source: OECD International Migration Database.

ic Ja o Cz pa ec n h Ko Re re pu a U Po blic ni te rtu d ga St l at Fr es an ce It Fi aly nl U an ni te d d Sp Ki ai ng n G do er m m B an N el y g e O th ium EC er D lan av ds er a Ir ge el a Ca nd n D ad en a m a Au rk st N Sw ria ew e Ze den a Au lan st d ra N lia Sw or itz wa er y la nd ex M On average immigration represents 0. 6% of the population Permanent immigration as a percentage of the population, 2012 1. 5 1. 0 % 0. 5 0. 0 Source: OECD International Migration Database.

Free mobility is the driver of changes in migration flows Permanent immigration in OECD countries by category, 2007 -2013 (millions) Millions 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (estimates) 1. 5 Milions 1. 0 0. 5 0. 0 Work Accompanying family of workers Family Humanitarian Other Free movements 6 Source: OECD International Migration Database.

Germany driving the increase in free movement Migration within areas of free circulation in OECD countries Free movement migration flows to OECD countries have increased by a third since 2009… 1 004 832 735 Thousands 2009 2011 2013 (provisional) … and an increasing share of these migrants are choosing Germany 2009 2011 Germany 2013(provisional Germany 16% Germany 24% 35% Rest of OEC D 84% Rest of OEC D 76% Rest of OEC D 65% 7 Source: OECD International Migration Database.

Flows from Europe to Germany by region of origin Number of entries by semester (thousands) 120 Jan-Jun 2010 Thousands 100 Jul-Dec 2010 80 Jan-Jun 2011 Jul-Dec 2011 60 Jan-Jun 2012 40 Jun-Dec 2012 20 0 Jan-Jun 2013 Jul-Dec 2013 Southern Europe Source: DESTATIS, Germany. Poland Bulgaria + Romania

Flows from Europe to the UK by country of origin Number of entries by fiscal year (thousands) (NINos) 120 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 Thousands 100 80 60 40 20 0 Poland Romania Spain Source: Department for Work and Pensions, UK. . Italy Portugal Bulgaria Greece

Reduced labour migration flows in crisis countries affected total flows Massive drops in labour migration flows to Italy and Spain led to 40% drop for EU-OCDE countries as a whole. Permanent labour migration to European OECD countries (thousands) 600 500 Thousands 400 Spain + Italy 331 300 104 200 100 0 2007 Other EU/OCDE + Switzerland + Norway 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 10 Source: OECD International Migration Database.

Temporary migration has decreased continuously since the financial crisis Drops observed in 2011 and 2012 are due to the decline in seasonal workers Temporary migrants to OECD countries (thousands) 2526 2505 2091 2069 1958 1873 Total Seasonal workers 571 2007 577 2008 520 2009 505 2010 356 2011 203 2012 11 Source: OECD International Migration Database.

Increasing student mobility Rest of the world Millions OECD 1. 1 0. 6 0. 5 1. 6 2000 3. 4 2006 Double numbers between 2000 and 2012. 3. 4 million foreign students enrolled in an OECD country in 2012. 75% of all foreign students in the world. 2012 25 2008 20 2012 15 10 5 More than half of international students in OECD countries come from Asia. China alone represents 22% Ch in a In d G er ia m an y Ko re a F Sa ra ud nc i. A e ra b Vi et ia N M am al U ni ay te si d a St at es It a Ca ly Ru na ss da M ia o n r Fe oc c Sl d ov er o ak at Re ion pu bl ic Ja pa n 0 Source: OECD Education Database. 12

Asylum seeking is reaching new highs New asylum seekers in OECD countries Highest level in 10 years reached in 2013 Growing share of Syrian citizens 3% 556 464 371 316 286 319 365 363 423 15% 464 347 Thousands 2012 (1 st 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 semester) 80 4 60 3 40 2 20 1 Source: OECD International Migration Database. 3 5 4 2 3 2 1 1 a Ja in p Fi an nl an Is d ra Ko el Lu M re xe e a m xic bo o Ir urg Cz e ec Po lan r h t d N Re ug Sl ew p al ov Z ub ak ea lic Re lan pu d bl ic C Sl h i ov le e Ic nia el Es and to ni a 5 6 Sp 100 Thousands 6 ni Ge te rm d a St ny a Fr te a U Sw n s ni e ce te d Tu de Ki rk n ng e y Sw do m itz It e a H rla ly un n N A ga d et u r he st y rla ria Po nd Be la s n Au lgi d u st m N ral o ia Carwa n y G a D re da en ec m e ar k 120 U Thousands Germany absorbed half of the increase in 2013 13

The labour market integration of immigrants in OECD countries

ex i Ja co p Po an la n Sl Ko d ov re ak a C Re hi p le H ub un lic Cz g ec F ar h inl y Re an pu d G blic D ree en c m e Po ar rt k ug a It l N Ic aly et el he an U rla d ni te F nd O d K ran s EC in c D g e U a do ni v m te er d ag St e a N te or s G w er a m y an Sp y Sl a ov in e Es nia t Be oni lg a Sw ium ed Au en s Ir tria e N C lan ew a d n Ze ad al a an Is d A r Sw us ael tr Lu itze ali xe rl a m an bo d ur g M Migrant stocks remain well above pre-crisis levels in all countries Foreign-born population as a percentage of the total population, 2001 and 2012 Source: OECD International Migration Database. 2001 50 40 30 20 10 0

Huge increase in the number of highly educated immigrants • 11. 3 million and 28% of • 11. 1 million and 31% of all immigrants (15 -64) in EU area all immigrants (15 -64) in the US are tertiary educated (+92% between 2000/01 -2010/11) A. Europe Source: DIOC 2010/11 (+47% between 2000/01 -2010/11) B. United States Source: DIOC 2010/11

Persisting large unemployment gaps in Europe Unemployment rates by gender and place of birth - EU, USA and CZE, 2008 -2013 European Union Native-born United States Immigrants Native-born 18 16 14 5, 8 pp 12 10 8 4, 1 pp 6 4 Unemployment rate (%) 18 Immigrants 16 14 12 10 8 60, 4 pp -0, 4 pp 4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2008 2009 2010 Source: EU Labour Force Surveys (European Union) and Current Population Surveys (United States). 2011 2012 2013

Persisting large unemployment gaps in Europe Unemployment rates by gender and place of birth - EU, USA and CZE, 2008 -2013 European Union Native-born Czech Republic Immigrants Native-born 18 16 14 5, 8 pp 12 10 8 4, 1 pp 6 4 Unemployment rate (%) 18 Immigrants 16 14 12 10 8 6 1, 3 pp 3, 5 pp 4 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: EU Labour Force Surveys. 2012 2013 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

High-educated immigrants have lower employment rates Employment rates among the highly educated 15 -64 who are not in education, 2013 Employment rates of the highly educated foreign-born 95 Equ 90 85 SVK 80 CHL LUX ISL NOR GBR NZL AUS AUT ISR USA DEU OECD POL NLD DNK EST MEX IRL CAN FIN BEL FRA HUN PRT 75 CZE al CHE SWE 70 ITA 65 TUR SVN ESP 60 GRC 55 50 65 70 75 80 85 90 Employment rates of the highly educated native-born Note: The data for Canada, New Zealand Turkey apply to the 25 -64 age group and may include people still in education. The data for Australia refer to the 15 -64 age group and may include people still in education. Source: European countries and Turkey: labour force surveys (Eurostat), 2013; Australia: Labour Force Survey 2012; Canada, New Zealand: Labour force surveys 2011 -12; Chile: Encuesta de Caracterización Socioeconómica Nacional (CASEN) 2011; Israel: Labour Force Survey 2011; Mexico: Encuesta Nacional de Ocupación y Empleo (ENOE) 2013; 95 19

When in employment, they are more often over-qualified Percent of employed highly-educated who are in a medium- or low-skilled job, 15 -64, 2013 Native-born Foreign-born 60 50 40 30 20 10 Note: Highly-educated corresponds to tertiary education. They are considered over-qualified if the job is classified as ISCO 4 to 9. (ISCO stands for International Standard Classification of Occupations. ) Source: European countries and Turkey: Labour force surveys (Eurostat), 2013; Chile: Encuesta de Caracterización Socioeconómica Nacional (CASEN) 2011; Israel: Labour Force Survey 2011; New Zealand: Labour Force Survey 2012; United States: Current Population Survey 2013. X LU R IR L U SA N O R IS L N ZL SW E AU T G BR BE L D E O U EC D FI N FR A TU R D N K N LD CZ E PR T CH L H U N CH E PO L SV K SV N IS T ES RC A G IT ES P 0 20

Part of the gaps in outcomes are due to lower literacy skills Mean literacy scores 16 - to 64 -year-old, 2012 Foreign-born Native-born 310 290 270 250 230 210 190 170 150 AUS SVK CZE IRL EST CAN GBR AUT OECD NLD NOR BEL DEU FIN USA DNK SWE ESP FRA ITA Gaps are observed across all education levels 21 Source: OECD Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC), 2012. .

Recent trends in migration policies in OECD countries

New approaches to labour migration management • The recognition of foreign qualifications – both pre- and post-departure - is becoming a key element in labour migration and integration policies (for labour migration: AU, CA; for integration: AT, DE, SE, …) • Policies making it easier for international students to remain and work after graduation are still on the rise (AT, CH, KR, SE, TR) • Bilateral co-operation is increasing, particularly with respect to low-skilled migration (KR, IL; for seasonal: AU, CA, NZ) • Training in the origin countries is also getting new attention (DE) o Expression of Interest systems which first create a pool of immigrants from which authorities and employers can pick are becoming wide-spread (AU, CA, NZ, …) o Investor visas are being adjusted to achieve real returns (AU, CA, UK) or offered for real estate/treasury bond investments in countries in crisis (ES, GR, IR, PT) o Increasing concerns regarding non-discretionary and undocumented migration 23

Expression of Interest (Eo. I)

Growing interest/concerns regarding investor programmes Ireland, UK, Spain, Korea Ireland, Spain Donation / Investment capital Public debt €, $ USA, Netherlands, Germany, France, Chile, Canada Business, Employment, innovation Property Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Greece, (Latvia) Investment threshold 10 000 € 1 000 ce an la er et h Fr . . . K U N y er m G Au st r al an ia Z N SA U da na Ca ai n Sp nd la Ir e e ec re G ga un H Sw itz er la . . ry . 100 000

Legal and undocumented non-discretionary /unmanaged migration raises concerns (again) • Intra EU migration – – – • Move in some countries to restrict benefit access for those with no employment history Concern over “social dumping” in Norway, despite high employment rates New EU Commissioner asked to review posted workers Unaccompanied minors – • Record high levels of unaccompanied minors in a number of OECD countries (Mexico, USA, Sweden, Italy) Asylum seekers and refugees – • New refugee reception systems being tested by a spike in arrivals (Hungary); implementation of new asylum processing system complicated by increased pressure (Greece) Illegal employment of foreigners – Ongoing trend towards transparency in work rights such as single permit in EU or more investment in electronic verification systems (USA, AUS)

27/11 Thank you for your attention For further information: www. oecd. org/migration jean-christophe. dumont@oecd. org