http www ithaca edufacultysallennatomapofukraine gif http wellsy files

http: //www. ithaca. edu/faculty/sallen/nato/map-of-ukraine. gif http: //wellsy. files. wordpress. com/2009/09/missile_silo. jpg

古典現實主義 Classical Realism 新現實主義 Neo-Realism

http: //dongshih. forest. gov. tw/site/forest/public/MMO/320/%E 4%BB%99%E 5%8 D%8085%E 6%9 E%97%E 7%8 F%AD%E 9%A 6%99%E 6%9 D%89%E 6%AF%8 D%E 6%A 8%B 9%E 6%9 E%97. JPG

人性渴望權力可以有科學根據 Lust for Power is a Science 渴望權力的人性，是洪荒 時代以來長期演化的結果， 在險惡的自然環境中，人 類為了生存必須貪婪並設 法宰制他人。 不需要生存以外的動機偏好假設！ Bradley A. Thayer, “Brining in Darwin: Evolutionary Theory, Realism, and International Politics, ” International Security, Vol. 25, No. 2 (Fall 2000), pp. 124 -151.

不是不對，只是時 候未到 再好的理論， 也有例外 米夏摩 John J. Mearsheimer, "The False Promise of International Institutions, " International Security, Vol. 19, No. 3 (Winter 1994/1995), pp. 5 -49. John J. Mearsheimer, "The Case for a Ukrainian Nuclear Deterrent, " Foreign Affairs, Vol. 72, No. 3 (Summer 1993), pp. 50 -66. John J. Mearsheimer, "Back to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War, " International Security, Vol. 15, No. 4 (Summer 1990), pp. 5 -56.

國家中心現實主義 state-centered realism 守勢現實主義：國家因威脅上升而擴張 攻勢現實主義：國家因權力上升而擴張 政府相對於民間社會 的能力，影響了國家 發動擴張的能力。 薩卡利亞 Fareed Zakaria, From Wealth to Power: The Unusual Origins of America’s World Role (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998) 施奈德 Jack L. Snyder Fareed Zakaria, “Realism and Domestic Politics: A Review Essay, ” International Security Vol. 17, No. 1 (Summer 1992), pp. 191 -196.

施里芬 http: //media-2. web. britannica. com/eb-media/04/26404 -004 -A 368 B 9 FF. jpg Alfred von Schlieffen http: //strangemaps. files. wordpress. com/2007/07/schlieff. jpg http: //www. corbisimages. com/images/HU 037082. jpg? size=67&uid=B 3 E 73 F 07 -3 FF 4 -43 D 2 -8 A 2 A-04 BDA 3 DBA 342

借道中立國 http: //westopforcake. com/1920 s_Pictures/archduke-ferdinand. jpg http: //www. eherodotus. com/schlieffen. jpg