ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 2016 Ira Pohl TM Feb 25

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 2016 Ira Pohl TM Feb 25, 2016

Talk • • • What is AI? A brief history Use in Industry Use in e. Learning UCSC work Future

What is AI? • AI – a science/engineering of intelligence – In analogy to aeronautical engineering/flying • AI – model of “human/cognitive” system – Is done as a theory of human intelligence

Acting humanly: Turing Test • Turing (1950) "Computing machinery and intelligence": • Operational test for intelligent behavior: the Imitation Game • Predicted that by 2000, a machine might have a 30% chance of fooling a lay person for 5 minutes • Anticipated all major arguments against AI • Loebner Prize

Thinking humanly: cognitive modeling • 1960 s "cognitive revolution": informationprocessing psychology Newell and Simon GPS • Requires scientific theories of internal activities of the brain • -- How to validate? Requires 1) Predicting and testing behavior of human subjects (top-down) or 2) Direct identification from neurological data (bottom-up)

Thinking rationally: "laws of thought" • Several Greek schools developed various forms of logic: notation and rules of derivation for thoughts; may or may not have proceeded to the idea of mechanization • Direct line through mathematics and philosophy to modern AI -Leibnitz, Boole Kleene, Church, Turing – Mc. Carthy, Robinson • •

AI prehistory • Philosophy • Mathematics • Economics/OR • Neuroscience • Psychology • Computer Science • Linguistics Logic, methods of reasoning, mind as physical system foundations of learning, language, rationality Formal representation and proof algorithms, computation, (un)decidability, (in)tractability, probability, bayes utility, decision theory physical substrate for mental activity phenomena of perception and motor control, experimental techniques building fast computers, algorithms knowledge representation, grammar

Abridged history of AI • • • 1943 1950 s • • • 1956 1965 1980 1995 1997 2003 2011 2014 2015 Mc. Culloch & Pitts: Boolean circuit model of brain Turing's "Computing Machinery and Intelligence" Early AI programs, including Samuel's checkers program, Newell & Simon's Logic Theorist, Dartmouth meeting: "Artificial Intelligence" adopted Robinson's complete algorithm for logical reasoning AI industry –Symbolics & Knowledge Based Systems The emergence of intelligent agents Kasparov loses to Deep Blue i. Robot – Roomba, Pacbot 510 Google Car –self driving 300, 000 miles MOOCs – autograded classes, ed. X software Hawking “spell the end of the Human race” –BBC Google Alpha. Go beats European champion-using learning

Autonomous Car

Riba Description • RIBA — short for “Robot for Interactive Body Assistance” — was developed by researchers at Japan’s Institute of Physical and Chemical Research (RIKEN) and Tokai Rubber Industries, Ltd. (TRI). Designed primarily to assist nurses by lifting patients in and out of their beds and wheelchairs (as well as on and off the toilet), the 180 -kilogram (400 -lb) robot can safely pick up and carry people weighing as much as 61 kilograms (135 lbs).

RIBA -2008 Nurse Robot

Robot arm –in use in solar panel factory - NYT 2012

Skilled Work without the Worker NYT_ Aug 18, 2012 by John Markoff • Take the cavernous solar-panel factory run by Flextronics in Milpitas, south of San Francisco. A large banner proudly proclaims “Bringing Jobs & Manufacturing Back to California!” • Yet in the state-of-the-art plant, where the assembly line runs 24 hours a day, seven days a week, there are robots everywhere and few human workers. All of the heavy lifting and almost all of the precise work is done by robots that string together solar cells and seal them under glass. The human workers do things like trimming excess material, threading wires and screwing a handful of fasteners into a simple frame for each panel.

GO- Learning/MC • Go Program is now (Google Go program European Champ) about to surpass human ability • How: learning, big data, MC computation; • Distinctly not “human” cognition • Implication: Machine Intelligence is surpassing human ability in ways that humans cannot “understand”

State of the art • Deep Blue defeated the reigning world chess champion Garry Kasparov in 1997 -current best 3100+ vs 2800 for humans • Proved a mathematical conjecture (Robbins conjecture) unsolved for decades 1996 by EQP • No hands across America (driving autonomously 98% of the time from Pittsburgh to San Diego) in 1995 -2005 132 mile unknown terrain-completely autonomous • During the 1991 Gulf War, US forces deployed an AI logistics planning and scheduling program that involved up to 50, 000 vehicles, cargo, and people • Roomba 2002 > Now pet hair version, mopping, eaves, windows • RIBA 2007 • IBM WATSON- 2011 – wins Jeopardy against all time champs • Google robot Car 2012 300, 000 miles Now > 1, 000

UCSC AI-and related • • • Pohl- Heuristic Search, Should Robots have Nuclear ARMs Getoor- Big Data Inference Mateas-Games Intelligent dialog for characters, Façade Interactive drama Helmbold, Warmuth- effective learning algorithms Mc. Dowell, Doshay- Go program(machine champ in 2006) Elkaim- Autonomous Sailboat > now a degree program

Achievements • LISP, Time Sharing • Games – early space war games • Intellectual Games – mastery in Chess, checkers, Hex, othello, backgammon, scrabble- and now GO and Poker • MACSYMA –Mathematica, MATLAB • DENDRAL(chemistry, medicine … experts) • Robotics • Speech and Handwriting recognition (SIRI)

Large trends • Big data and learning- google can translate effectively between natural languages; • Big Computation- monte carlo simulations with simple metrics can outperform humans with deep knowledge

MOOCs and AI • One last story • Educating Humans as an AI problem • Why? Difficult and Expensive

Events • In the 1960 s, Patrick Suppes and Richard C. Atkinson (the future president of the University of California) conducted experiments in using computers to teach math and reading to schoolchildren in the Palo Alto area.

World University for free! • Norvig –Thune AI class in 2011 has 160000 attendees – autograding • Leads to coursera, udacity, ed. X • Together with Kahnacademy website- these resources are reshaping education • Here at UCSC Baumgarten-Kenez class Holocaust – 2013 Coursera: 18, 000 students • Pohl – C++ for C Programmers -2013: 60, 000

The larger Universe or maybe the Global University • Coursera: Started at Stanford • Principals : Daphne Koller, Andrew Ng • Members: 16 AAU Universities – Princeton, Cal Tech, Duke, Univ of Penn – UW, Michigan, UVA – Edinburgh, U of Toronto – UCSF • Classes: 124+ over all subjects 2013

2014 • Coursera 106 institutions worldwide • 500 plus class curriculum • Over 5 million unique names • Udacity: Georgia Tech $6600 Masters in CS(partner) ATT • 2016 UCSC Holocaust Class, C++ for C Programmers - on demand/cohorts

Yet to come • Will humans need to work? • Will their be a “singularity” • If work and intelligence do not define us; what does?

Baxter - $3. 00 per hour • Rodney Brooks : general purpose trainable indutrial robot: cost $22, 000.

Packbot 510